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Don't ignore the northeast Pacific. I think this winter could easily bust.

What’s the earliest WSW you’ve ever received?

Now that would git'r done !

TV mets hanging onto the warm ground concerns which won’t be a factor at night with high rates. Lake snows have dropped 18” this time of year with less favorable synoptics.

Rummy knew.

Per model consensus progs: -Nov ‘25 is likely headed toward a strong -NAO Niña Nov like that of 2010, 2000, 1995, 1983, 1973, 1955, and 1950. -Of those: all but 1973 had BN temp. in Dec at NYC with 4 of 7 having a MB Dec including the last 3 on the list. Though on avg for all winters Feb has been 3 F colder than Dec, the Febs for these 7 averaged 2.4 F warmer than the Decs. -Of these: 2010, 1973, and 1955 also had a -NAO Oct like 2025. -Of those, 1995 had a similar Nov MJO. -Of those: 2010, 1995, and 1955 had a sub -0.25 NAO winter. All 3 of those had a very cold Dec. But of those 3, only 1955 had active sunspots fwiw. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

I'm limiting my expectations for this one in Knoxville, but seeing light snow/flurries in the air this early in November is a huge win. If I get a dusting, I'd be happy! Not looking bad at all for plateau, NE TN, & the mountains.

The NAM has it cranking snow over me Monday at 7pm at 23 degrees. May be fun if true.

Trolling already i see

I hope so too. Just wish we knew when the next extreme event will hit. I get so bored that I started tracking obscure records like "Days which recorded 100% rh throughout the entire day at KPVD". Very few days have done that surprisingly but it's gotten to the point where I look for any bit of excitement I can get.

0.28" I'll take it. Excited about the first flakes incoming. Seriously considering heading downwind from Erie for the season's first chase but just not sure it'll be worth it. But, more importantly, just happy the season is finally here.

Couldn’t agree more Don. It can, and certainly has been quiet of late…but we’re due for some action. And I think it’s coming this winter…

The 2003-05 period is going to be nearly impossible to replicate, in terms of ACE. We had the one-year ACE (2005), two-year ACE (2004-05), and 3-year ACE (2003-05) records set. Also, most Cat 5 storms in one year (2005) and 5 years (2003-07), and until it was tied these last few years, the 2-year, 3-year, and 4-year Cat 5 records. (The 5-year record can be tied next year with one, and broken with 2.) I'd even argue that the record stretch began in 1998, maybe even 1995. We had six 175+ ACE seasons in 11 years from 1995-2005. In the 20 years since, we've only had 2 (2017 and 2020).

very lovely day it is went out for my walk.. in a hoodie and not wearing a coat for a change..

Snow at camp last night in Eustis.

What? Looks way above normal

Went outside for two seconds about an hour ago, lovely day. Working on some school work, going to take the dog on a walk, and then drink a few IPAs and watch the Bruins hopefully crush the Leafs

PreChristmas

Pre-Christmas

December looks great with a weak Nina and PV. Lets hope we cash in.

We were in SNJ for the T-Day storm, had cold rain there. Neighbor said, "about 8 inches" but the co-op 3 miles south and 90' higher reported 11". He usually reports less than I do, in part to one-a-day measuring, so I may have underestimated. Ratio was 5.6-to-1, a real branch breaker. The Dec clipper grew up faster than expected - forecast was 3-6 and we had 9.3" from less than half the SWE of T-Day, 0.71" vs, 1.44".

Yeah I think that’s right. I know I kid occasionally about the San Diego stuff but here in SNE we can do severe, tropical, cold, heat/humidity, and snow. Most of the time it may be quiet, but when we hit we hit.

Yes it is. We are headed down to the Czech Christmas Market at the Embassy and it is going to be a beautiful day.

I have my AC on in my car. Mild outside

The 12z 3k nam and RDPS are looking very similar Sunday evening. Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk