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Interesting, ole DB would have been my first guess. lol - Statements like that make me question his credentials

model depictions at this range are misleading and there are some that were posted here that are not that dry.........

Absurd that they just rolled with special weather statements for those areas and never even thought about advisories.

Flakes still going on for 18 hours straight and counting without any signs of letting up very soon. Might as well keep them coming through the entire day today.

While I am not to your NW, almost parallel to you but West. I swear I saw a flash out my bedroom window last night to my NW. Looked at my radar and nothing. So interesting to see someone else saw something. I have nothing nice to say about waking up to yet another day of wind. It has disturbed the order of things in this household. The cats have been enjoying a small outdoor Pay Per View bird buffet from some left over Christmas tree branches and seed outside the slider door. They all think it is rude that the wind dared to blow their entertainment across the deck. We told them we would rebuild.

May take 500-1000yrs to break

Looks pretty quiet going forward for at least another 7 days.

You'd think with that depiction that there would be at least 1" across NY metro and then once it hits the water, it would strengthen enough to reach a few inches in east New England. But the model depictions look so dried out

Good luck, It looks like its mainly a cape deal.

this shortwave is the strongest of the few arriving here the next few days - capable of putting down some accumulations in some areas of the region

Data error for the Mansfield stake? Reading is down to 29”

Martinsburg gusted to 60 overnight. i can’t remember another night since i moved to WV where the end howled like that at night.

It’s a SNE deal . Down here

Not the new normal, only the current situation. Which will eventually shift, and change.

Out of Bristol.

Looks pretty meh overall, GYX not that enthused.

Welcome to the new normal. The flow is too fast for anything amplified. Too much storminess near the west coast doesn't let anything amplified to crawl up the coast like it used to in the 2010s and 2000s. Even when there is a -NAO so there's enough blocking, the flow is too fast and the northern stream can never phase with southern stream.

Nice surprise to wake up to. 1.5" in the wind protected holler here at home. 14 for the low. Very nice. Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro using Tapatalk

Hey I'm with you...I have no doubt we will cone out of it and we will get smoked again. I get there is a luck factor in this and there are things we don't truly know or understand, but all we can do is try to use data and knowledge to further understand. At this point we are closer to getting out of this and I can't see us staying in this drought for much longer. It's more of a theory at this point so I don't have a ton of data or reanalysis maps I can throw into this...but would be a fun project to dig deeper. Anyways, we have to look at the jet stream on a global scale and all the influences which shape the jet stream structure, position, and strength. As you know, when the jet stream is faster, it becomes more difficult to really amplify the jet stream (not impossible but just more difficult). I just think that where we are positioned globally, we are in a spot in which the faster winds result in an increased probability for amplification to our west and then just to our east. Where I've started to develop this idea was based on some of the weather across the West the last few years. Remember a few years back the West was getting absolutely pummeled for a 6 week stretch which was something more akin to what you would see in EL Nino versus La Nina. The orientation and structure of the jet stream was not what you would typically see. This is all a ramble...but I will eventually get back to you with more coherent thoughts.

Seems like a lot of mets feel that way, but down here anything short of near model and ensemble consensus ends up a fail or disappointment.

yes, 978 just SE. https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/feb-13-2024

No that level of weenie transcends the forum. Look at Twitter, especially Webb’s before he did his about face around Christmas.

If you want blood.. you got it !

Got a 1/2in from French Ticklers off of the lake down here. Moderate wind damage reports around the area, that was the bigger story along with the temp bottom falling out. 15 gusts over 50 at my station with a 10 min 38+ sustained period. Left Fl to get Tropical Storm force winds up here lol.