All Activity

28 degrees moderate to light snow currently. Laying immediately.

Can we still get accumulating snow farther west ?

Is is directly over the top of that or does it develop downstream of a feature like that? Apologies, very MBY of me but the top of that is right over my head here on the Alamance/Guilford line. Wouldn’t mind a micro feature like that to “dry slot” proof us early! .

Dime to nickel size clumps and heavy out my way.

Light snow and 28. Already a dusting including the driveway.

Where are you located roughly? I grew up in Mt Airy

ORH did indeed tie the record low max of 10F in 1934. Kind of a weak vulnerable record but tied nonetheless.

Where's the subtitle?

Heavy Flurry storm in Sweetwater. 31• 24DP .

Don’t forget Leo too. Also in NS.

Can I say it? WRAL post Fishel isn’t really worth paying much attention to. .

Great beach weekend at KD Hills. https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-75.664&lat=36.013

37°F in Belmont, NC. Pumped to see any amount of snow, truly. What's everyones plan for sleep haha. I think I am going to try a brief nap here soon, waking up around 3-4 AM as of now, don't want to miss a moment - worried I'll end up just staying up all night and tomorrow!

Some snow showers may get in around 7am

Yea, look at radar time. I still think ric gets to a warning

20 for the high and just 21 at DCA Its not rare to get a 2-3 day shot like this or colder but 7 + days is rare and this might be coldest 10 day stretch since the immortal 1977

The Sref took a huge jump towards other guidance. Over 1 inch of liquid showing up in ENC

Just about Nowcast time

Maybe . We shall see.

(cross-posted from obs thread) Note the feature over e TN, sw VA into w NC is a wave on arctic front, the upper level low is still back around n.e. Missouri and central IL dropping southeast. Moderate snow partly lake enhanced has broken out over n/c IL associated with the upper low. This light to moderate snow band will catch up to the pivoting arctic frontal wave tonight and Saturday morning as the low begins to deepen more rapidly off the coast. The 500 mb low has not quite closed off yet. 850 mb temps behind it are -24C (-12F) in Iowa. That slug of very cold air will be somewhere near TLH by this time Saturday (modified slightly). We will be seeing dynamics that may only be equalled by Feb 12-13 1899 in that region.

AIFS has done particularly well with verification on the lower end of QPF distribution (<= 0.25") and has a good indication of the coverage within those bounds. It still struggles with higher QPF allotments, especially anything with convective backgrounds. Might get the areal extent of the "where" right, but magnitude is going to struggle. This has been the case for the past few years of evaluations. Totally agree with the SLP and 5H outputs being the areas it does the best with. I have noticed it tends to waver outside the D5 window, which is the case with next weeks system as well, but it will slowly move and hold firm between the D3-5 window before usually settling within the bounds of a solution. Atmospheric complexities are still prevalent within the grand scheme and the AI models will still be subject to variability at leads due to the complex variables at hand. They are a useful tool and one that helps aid in medium and short range forecasting.

I think that it just has to be smaller than 1.95 MB. That's limiting, but it will work.

Rippage

Well, I hope this just fills in more and more.

Note the feature over e TN, sw VA into w NC is a wave on arctic front, the upper level low is still back around n.e. Missouri and central IL dropping southeast. Moderate snow partly lake enhanced has broken out over n/c IL associated with the upper low. This light to moderate snow band will catch up to the pivoting arctic frontal wave tonight and Saturday morning as the low begins to deepen more rapidly off the coast.