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Watch up until 5pm
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
LakePaste25 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Sorry but I cannot justify using a model that can’t even initialize the El Niño at its *current* initial state correctly. -
Central PA Summer 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
Mount Joy Snowman replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
It's pitch black with torrential rain in Harrisburg. Copious lightning strikes had the construction crews scattering. Impressive 'lil MCS. -
Yep the youngest Ms. J just called me. She goes to Dickinson in Carlisle and is stuck in the dinning hall.
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Central PA Summer 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
mahantango#1 replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Here too, thought we were headed to dusk. -
Central PA Summer 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
TheDreamTraveler replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
I was expecting a lot more wind than I got given how that line looked. Not really windy at all -
2026 Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm General Discussion
SnowenOutThere replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
From my amateur SPC mesoanalysis skills I think that our region might get a bit screwed from the storm complex, at least when it comes to maximizing our severe threat. The best shear looks to be to the northeast of our area, alongside the best ML lapse rates. The instability gradient additionally rides right along Baltimore. Think that MD might be able to cash in but I'd be worried about the storms riding that gradient if I was in NOVA.- 2,314 replies
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
mitchnick replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
SE yes. But it does climo or better in other areas. -
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That is one hell of a line of storms sinking south from PA.
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This is exactly why we will never break the records from years like 1936, 1953 and 1966. Mark my words Chris it will NEVER happen. We will have plenty of very hot summers, I fully expect next summer to be like 1983 and 2010, and get to the 100-102 range maybe three or more times, but the high end heat of 1936 (106 at Central Park) 1953 (102 in September, a mega heat wave of 2 weeks length), 1966 (107 at LGA, 104 at JFK) that will never happen again, at least not in our lifetimes. Obviously other regions will break their all time records because climate change means different things to different parts of the world and in different times of the year. Our springs haven't become hotter either. 1991 a pre el nino year had a spring much hotter than this year and the summer was hotter too.
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Central PA Summer 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
canderson replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
I’m in a windowless room this am and heard thunder and looked at radar. Holy smokes -
Septorcher 2026 Discussion - Endless Summer
rclab replied to Damage In Tolland's topic in New England
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they are heading towards the more favorable for convection unstable warmer air on the other side of the front to the south - we are on the unfavorable for convection more stable northern side - most we will get - if that is a few showers
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Rather no rain and no clouds and no fog and pump all this moisture to Mars where they really need it. Hot sunny and clean blue skies and dry weather are the best.
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2026 Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm General Discussion
batmanbrad replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
yep latest MCD from SPC says a downstream watch coming... that line certainly doesn't look like it's getting any weaker and the timing is pretty good since peak heating is a few hours away...- 2,314 replies
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1991 had one of the hottest summers on record at both locations and NYC too. Matched just two summers later in 1993. What a historic week and day in 1953 we had! Much better than the crop soggy weather we have now. I dont like either my weather or my food to be soggy.
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Thanks, guys. You’re probably right—more climo and unstable environment than anything else. Really interesting to watch. Hopefully the folks down there are staying safe—I don’t recall any forecasts for FFE level rainfall.
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2026 Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm General Discussion
high risk replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
Certainly sounds like SPC is going to issue a new box over us soon.- 2,314 replies
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Going to need to expand the STW into MD quickly…
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So much for that epic severe threat 4/5 days ago.
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Central PA Summer 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
WmsptWx replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Unbelievably dark out right now. -
Central PA Summer 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
Itstrainingtime replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
That's a problem? Lancaster county (and others as well) has seen so much damage this summer. Homes with roofs ripped off, siding ripped off, trees into houses, etc. Enough is enough. I don't understand why not getting severe (damaging, by definition) is a disappointment. -
Im going to need that western edge to expand about an inch
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