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Get ready to Day 3 Moderate?

We are in a drought in the mtns

S Wey special

Enhanced for severe wind also expanded into Chicagoland on the new D2.

Looks like we may be dealing with convection for the Wednesday morning commute.

New D2 Tor Outlook. Seems like SW WI always gets the bullseye these days.

Means absolutely nothing just like every other long range forecast. Accuracy on those, no matter how they grade themselves, is similar to pin the tail on the donkey

Above average temps https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202511070000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202511170000

Yeah possible I guess. Starting to get crispy here.

Absolutely disgusting storm.

I am in favor of daylight visibility at the expense of overall wow (to a point) so I enjoy that some models pop a mid-afternoon line for tomorrow now. Obviously don't want that to end up dudding the whole day or shifting the crosshair for later by accident but if we could sneak a good hit in the afternoon and then another at night that would be baller. Not even to speak of getting another even better chance Thursday to my understanding

Day 3 Thu, expect Friday that to push east

Yeah, these types of setups always trend towards best instability/theta-e, and that's nearly always going in the wrong direction. unless there's a strong cf squall line, or it's this type of setup but pegged for NNE many days out, forget it

The center of the heat looks to settle into the southeast in that period we'll see if it pushes inorth enough nto the NYC region or teters just south towards SNJ / PHL or DC.

The normal peak time for El Niños is almost always November/December. That’s the time (November/December) that the majority of models show this one peaking

some MCV magic it looks like in eastern MI today, quite a few tor warnings

Much will depend on wind direction 6/21 and beyond I think. Ongoing dryness could help the heat over perform. On the other hand the lingering rather strong "cool pool" off the North Atlantic coast could temper the heat, especially along the coast if wind has any onshore component. That cooler than normal water has been persistent. We'll see if it gets beaten back in a meaningful way over the next several weeks. I would have to think it will also lessen the chances of locally intense deluges / significant flash flooding events we have seen scattered across the area over the last several warm seasons. Less moisture added to the atmosphere for our area. That area had been quite warm for the last several summer seasons.

what am i looking at?

I often feel the same when they are blocking cold air that is chasing moisture! Seriously though, I think one way of explaining the drought would be to note that for the last 9 months it has, with rare exceptions, just been oscillating back and forth between a southeast ridge and a NW flow regime. The NW flow brought us some notable cold stretches last winter but it also kept us bone dry. Now it's just keeping us dry (and intermittently comfortable). We need two solid months of the pattern we had around Memorial day with a Bermuda high well of the coast and a trough to the west but not too close, together pumping gulf moisture up from the south west. And this time please no ridiculous CAD to keep the NC piedmont and west coastal plain stable.

Ray would like this storm even though he only got 15” to Kevin’s 40” since you had an inch of glop.

I obviously agree with your last sentence as that’s essentially what my quoted 2026 sources said and it’s logical to me, regardless. Regarding the first part, I don’t see why RONI shouldn’t be the preferred way for historical rankings. As far as heat being released into the atmosphere: we know that heat released into atmosphere increases as SSTs rise. Some of that SST rise is from El Niño (essentially RONI) and some is due to continued GW from CC (essentially ONI less RONI more or less). In the upcoming case, a huge amount will be imparted by what has a good chance to be a record breaking RONI or at least close to a record. All ENSO regions are looking to be quite warm and thus will contribute a large amount of heat. That’s different from a severely E based that may not contribute as much heat because of the other ENSO regions not being as warm.

Rufus looked a little better in E MA/NH…a little trigger along the theta-e grad and outflow enhanced seabreeze pushing westward. I’m just interested in rain though.

Temps underperforming a little so far today?

I've managed a few showers so far today. Heavy when they start but very short lived.

Co-sign. Would favor the higher elevations along and west of I-81 where updrafts can get a boost from the terrain, or neat the bay where a bay breeze front can boost some forcing.