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2026-2027 Super El Nino
mitchnick replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I agree, but there are signs of troughiness forming in the east and ridging out west on the 12z Eps. You can see it happening if you put this link in motion. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=eps®ion=namer&pkg=z500a&runtime=2026071212&fh=0 -
High of 84, well below the 92 forecasted. Had a severe warned storm move through that did not produce severe conditions but did drop .74" of much needed rain. Point up to 99 tomorrow. Gonna be brutal... currently 73.
- Yesterday
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2 flood watches in the past two weeks. Maybe some light showers.
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Least yall are getting something,boundary around Mid Tn with a weak surface low seemingly
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Mountain West Discussion
gallopinggertie replied to mayjawintastawm's topic in Central/Western States
Wow, Miles City got up to at least 115 today and Billings 111. Both all-time highs by a margin of 3-4 degrees. -
2026-2027 Super El Nino
LakePaste25 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
that low west of the aleutians is something to watch since it actually has a meaningful correlation with less noise. -
2026-2027 Super El Nino
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I'll go warmer on the August pattern This one has nothing to do with -NAO/AO -
2026-2027 Super El Nino
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Looking like July is going to be the 6th straight month with -PNA (CPC) 2026 0.79 -0.56 -1.74 -1.26 -1.27 -0.50 -
2026-2027 Super El Nino
LakePaste25 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Yes. Every indicator points to it. I’m not really too concerned with a summertime 500 mb dataset that has a sample size of 4. Much of the cool summer Ninos were derived from -NAO which is less correlated. -
Frog strangler deluxe underway right now with some mild thunder. Just enough to make my jumpy dog nervous.
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2026-2027 Super El Nino
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
June was AAO's 6th most extreme month on record, since 1979. 6/570. +2.506 -
2026-2027 Super El Nino
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
You really think this is fully coupled? This is typically a La Nina pattern
