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They have done detailed reanalysis from that era. That may be the earliest case of a a El Niño above +2.0 C that we have. Notice the record warmth that winter in the Upper Midwest. Time Series Summary for Minneapolis-St Paul Area, MN (ThreadEx) Warmest Winters with ONI seasons above +2.0 C bolded Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2023-2024 29.9 0 2 1877-1878 29.0 0 3 1930-1931 26.9 0 4 2001-2002 26.8 0 5 2011-2012 26.3 0 6 1881-1882 26.1 0 7 1997-1998 25.9 0 8 1986-1987 25.8 0 9 2016-2017 24.3 0 10 2015-2016 24.2 0 11 1982-1983 24.0 0 12 1991-1992 23.7 0 13 1943-1944 23.5 0 14 1920-1921 23.2 0 15 1999-2000 23.1 0 https://psl.noaa.gov/data/20thC_Rean/ 20th Century Reanalysis and PSL Four-dimensional historic weather reconstructions, or reanalyses, provide a crucial instrument-based link between long paleoclimate reconstructions and climate model forecasts. But until recently, the earliest reanalyses began with the year 1948, leaving out many important 20th century climate events, such as the 1930’s Dust Bowl. To expand the coverage of global gridded reanalyses, the 20th Century Reanalysis Project is an effort led by NOAA's Physical Sciences Laboratory (PSL) and CIRES at the University of Colorado, supported by the Department of Energy, to produce reanalysis datasets spanning the entire 20th century and much of the 19th century. These reanalyses assimilate only surface observations of synoptic pressure into NOAA's Global Forecast System and prescribe sea surface temperature and sea ice distribution in order to estimate e.g., temperature, pressure, winds, moisture, solar radiation and clouds, from the surface to the top of the atmosphere throughout the 19th and 20th centuries. 20CR uses an ensemble filter data assimilation method which directly estimates the most likely state of the global atmosphere for each three-hour period, and also estimates uncertainty in that analysis. The most recent version of this reanalysis, V3, provides 8-times daily estimates of global tropospheric variability across 75 km grids, spanning 1836 to 2015 (with an experimental extension from 1806 to 1835.) There are three previous versions of the reanalysis: V1, V2, and V2c. The project has greatly benefited from international cooperation under the Atmospheric Circulation Reconstructions over the Earth (ACRE) initiative, which undertakes and facilitates the recovery of historical instrumental surface terrestrial and marine global weather observations to underpin 4D weather reconstructions spanning the last 200 to 250 years. Additional support has been provided by the Global Climate Observing System and the World Climate Research Programme.

That banding looks interesting for a bit later.

Strong is a lock I think.

Remember the epic fails over the years during the spring barrier. I remember very well some not so much.

Panic lol what a doomer

I wouldn't be so sure.

Cfs2 has really responded to its December forecast over the last week. Top link is from 18z March 30th and bottom link 18z April 6. January likewise if you scroll forward. Precip is a wowzer too both months. Temps a little AN as expected, but in January it won't matter! https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2026033018&fh=9 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2026040618&fh=8

Trace on the deck

A few stray flurries..36/27

Actually, we snow now.

Looks perfect going forward

The Super Nino fanboys say you won’t see snow again until 27-28.

Stein+

I just realized this gets me to 60” for the year! 30° moderate snow .75”

Snow falling! 31F, yes it will be short lived, and probably my last time till 26-27 begins, it will be missed!

What the hell is going on here?

Picking back up, moderate snow now. Might break 1”

SNH getting lit up.

Yeah. Better now. Coating

Temp was 41 and dropping when I left the house. Had beautiful clear tequila sunrise skies just to my east and a thick cloud deck just to my west. A couple chilly ones ahead and then what could be a spectacular weekend. Carry on.

Well that was fun while it lasted. Saw something out of the corner of my eye and looked and it was snow lol. Just enough for a little bit to stick to the grass, not much though. Down to a very light flurry now

Snowing light to mod here now everything whitening up

29° -SN .50”