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before reading, initial instinct was 2011-2012 lol. that's wild, forgot that happened.

0z Euro has it too. More of a hit for the LV/Poconos but it's there.

We are in midseason form. Gfs big yes. Dr no big no

Oh Im at hour 144 and thought it might be a bit better

Euro nudged south. We are right back in this ballgame.

The GFS ended up with multiple fronts and a couple of shots of wintery precip for the forum area.

'Next to December now. And still got 3+ in. hailers (and likely over 80 DBZ reflectivity and 55 Kft storm tops), in the state just east of Laredo an hour ago..

AIFS suppressed. Toss. EURO amped. Average them out

Over in the MA forum. Sometimes I get lost...

Where is the snow map?

0z GEFS is slightly drier/south compared to 18z. So the GFS and GEFS moved towards each other this run.

A thing of beauty upstairs too.

GEFS is awful.... ...if you hate snow! There's a substantial increase in the mean from 18z and 12z.

So ugly. What a brutal game.

Gefs look as good as can be expected at this point imho with the threat.

midnight and there's a fuck ton of people online. it's winter already

UKMET = very nice

UKIE also a substantial hit 5” when the run ends with more to go

Ukie is also on board with the storm along the front.

Damn I thought we were canceling December and winter as a whole 3 days ago

The GFS retrogrades the CA ULL west into the Pacific. If that doesn't happen, the longwave flow across the US would be significantly altered. Our downstream weather is extremely sensitive to the modeled evolution of the western trof over this period. Could still end up balls cold or periodically torched days 6-15.

We have been talking early start to winter since October! Would be wild if it actually verified

Nice ridge out west and plenty of cold. What a turnaround from the models.

Definitely looks like the potential for a significant hit for the Madison metro is steadily increasing over the last day or so. Could get very interesting here, especially because we are potentially less than three days out from the snow starting to fall on Thanksgiving weekend, with all that entails for travel. Could see headlines and messaging start in earnest tomorrow because of this factor.