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True... but the text posted above also mentions potential for strong long track tornadoes

It’s still a go in terms of the categories and percentages that they’re rolling with, but the actual text mentions multiple ways this could bust.

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL MARYLAND...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA...CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Fast moving thunderstorms may become widespread and accompanied by the risk for damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes across the Mid Atlantic today. There is potential that a couple of storms could become capable of producing strong and long track tornadoes. ...Discussion... Models indicate that large-scale mid-level ridging will maintain amplitude across the Pacific coast through the Canadian Prairies and U.S. Rockies into early Tuesday and beyond. At the same time, it appears that downstream ridging will undergo further amplification just east of the Atlantic Seaboard, with only very slow eastward progression of large-scale troughing in between, across the Mississippi Valley into the Atlantic Seaboard. It does appear that one significant short wave perturbation will gradually pivot through the base of the troughing, toward the Cumberland Plateau during the day today, before rapidly accelerating northward near the Appalachians toward southwestern Quebec this evening through the overnight hours. Models suggest that this will eventually provide support for a rapidly deepening secondary surface cyclone across Quebec, downstream of an occluding and weakening cyclone across the lower Great Lakes vicinity. Surface troughing ahead of the trailing cold front is also forecast to undergo notable deepening to the east of the Allegheny Front and Blue Ridge today, and it appears that a rather sharp surface pressure fall/rise couplet will develop and overspread the northern Mid Atlantic coast late this afternoon and evening with the passage of the trough and trailing cold front. The cold front may clear all the Atlantic Seaboard, but perhaps portions of southern Florida and the Keys, by 12Z Tuesday. ...Atlantic Seaboard... Low-level moisture return is underway across the southern into middle Atlantic Seaboard. By early this afternoon, it appears that 60+ F surface dew points will advect as far north as the higher terrain of central through northeastern Pennsylvania, with dew points perhaps as high as the lower/mid 60s F across eastern North Carolina and Virginia. In advance of a pre-frontal squall line, which may be ongoing and beginning to spread to the lee of the southern Appalachians through the eastern Gulf Coast states at the outset of the period, it appears that destabilization and large-scale ascent may support scattered new thunderstorm development fairly early in the day. The extent to which this may impact further destabilization through late afternoon remains unclear. Destabilization may also be impacted by relatively warm air/weak lapse rates in mid/upper-levels, as models suggest that cold air aloft will tend to lag to the west of the surface cold front. Even so, forecast soundings suggest that, with breaks in the overcast, at least weak boundary-layer CAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg is possible in the warm sector across the Mid Atlantic. In the presence of very strong southwesterly deep-layer mean flow on the order of 50-60+ kt and strong to extreme low-level shear, including at least modest clockwise curvature, the environment appears potentially conducive to the evolution fast moving supercells with potential to produce strong tornadoes. Barring much interference from other storms, which remains uncertain at this time, at least a couple of these could become long track, given the storm motions. Otherwise, trailing this activity, the lee surface trough/cold front might become a focus for a developing line of storms capable of promoting the downward transfer of momentum with potential to produce widespread damaging wind gusts. Farther south, it appears that the initial squall line may be maintained or re-intensify, with a continuing risk for strong to severe wind gusts and potential for tornadoes into and across the southern Atlantic coast. ..Kerr/Thornton.. 03/16/2026

We are still a go per SPC new Day 1

They canceled school in VA because of it. I'm thinking kids are probably safer in a large building than a house if a tornado hits. Then a second thought hits my mind, the county doesn't want to be responsible if a tornado hits the school.

The May 31st, 1985 tornado outbreak was more severe and remarkable than 1998 or any other more recent PA involved outbreak by a pretty sizeable margin. That outbreak spun up 43 tornadoes and killed 89 people (1000 injured) in PA, NY, OH and Ontario (65 alone in PA), produced PA’s only ever EF5 tornado (Wheatland), and also produced what I’m pretty sure was one of the widest tornadoes ever recorded in the US at the time (Moshannon State Forest). Couple screen grabs below but there’s some really informative links about this outbreak CTP’s 35th anniversary link- https://www.weather.gov/ctp/TornadoOutbreak_may311985 New interactive link they made for the 40th anniversary last year collaborated with NWS Pittsburgh, State College, Buffalo, and Cleveland https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/e8c12f670d5648a9b64877f42660eeeb

Yea the warm layer didnt fully make it to my area as forcasted, lucky for us bad for m72 - m55 they are getting hit hard. I know the pain all to well from last year almost exactly a year ago.

Aren’t you SE of me?

Extreme Heat Warning, Blizzard Warning, Tornado Warning, Severe Thunderstorm Warning, Winter Storm Warning, High Wind Warning, Flood Warning, Ice Storm Warning, Freeze Warning, Gale Warning, Red Flag Warning, Storm Warning (purple in the western Gulf), Lake Shore Flood Warning, Special Marine Warning, Heavy Freezing Spray Warning all in effect in the U.S currently. Maybe the wildest weather night ever. I think the only weather warnings that aren't currently active are Tropical Storm, Hurricane, Extreme Cold, Coastal Flood, and a Flash Flood.

Flipped fully over to snow now, with about a 1/2" down.

The biggest issue here is that it’s still very much a snow and sleet combo.

NWS forecast for Phoenix.. their all time March high on record was March 26, 1988, 100F. They have only hit 100 once in March (someone correct me if I'm wrong, that's what I've seen other people post). Wednesday Sunny, with a high near 102. Thursday Sunny, with a high near 105. Friday Sunny, with a high near 107. Saturday Sunny, with a high near 106. Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 103.

Rooting for you man! I know you're long overdue. You had a nice weenie band earlier. Pivoting bands look to be setting up over your area.

Trying not to get HRRR’d but I think many places in the lake snow belts get 6+” of LES tomorrow through tomorrow night. Combined with the winds gusting 40 to 45 mph we may see an upgrade to WSW with 4-7”.

knocked out power for about 10 min,nice strorm anyways,no tornadoes

I agree mIke. Anything from the midwest deep LP storm means business. Let see how much those southerly winds increase tomorrow afternoon.

I was very skeptical for the majority of the leadup to this storm, as it seems pretty unusual to get one of these to time out just right to hit a given location. Looks like this one timed up pretty well for this area, and points northeast.

What do you mean they use 6+ as standard? Id say its subjective. Woth xmacis, you can see a locations avg 1+, 3+, 6+ etc. This winter DTW had 21 days of depth 6"+

Flipping between snow and ice pellets since then.

Its another 50mph squall line. Thats what we get in this region.

This is your storm. I was going to pull an all-nighter, but the radar is telling me not to bother so I'll probably go to bed after the heavier returns between here and Ottawa swing through.

Looks like you’ll be playing hockey tomorrow.