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Everybody used to laugh at me when I said the off hour runs were BS…now you see it’s true. They suck. Also as I thought back on Tuesday, that an OTS idea was the bigger worry. Cape cod could see a decent snow…the rest of us are out of it.

I know this is pulling at straws, but the 9z SREFS looking more up and in - maybe leading the charge to some better solutions lol?

Those will most likely "tick up" for the western areas. Our snow comes from the upper low as it swings south and goes negative. Eastern areas need the surface low to develop quicker for their higher totals

Looking at all the information this morning I think all of wnc with the snowfall rates will see 7-10 inches of snow with very low visibility.

I hate to say it but we’re trending to getting stuck between the ULL snow and coastal. Not good.

Yes we just got 12” and it’s cold and feels like winter. Which is nice but it still sucks to watch what could have been a blizzard miss by 100 miles. Welcome to weenie-ville

That is starting to show indications of a potential central NC screw zone.

Here is the 06z Euro .

If we’re claiming storms, I claim next week! We can call it the “WxUSAF shitty frontal passage”?

Hit a low of 3 on the drive to work in a low area along the little patuxent river. MBY was at 9 as of 7.

Both AIs show a possible nor'easter later next week, but look really good for an SWFE pattern after that. A repeat of 1/25...even at 2/3scale that would be nice. Perhaps the transition away from PNAP is the moment for a good coastal?

There's been this low pressure system that's bubbling up from deep in the Caribbean out ahead of this. Which is getting involved with the cyclogenesis. I think it's interfering and helping to shunt it east on guidance. So you're seeing the weird runs with a couple of lows. Wish that thing would vanish. Or get it to slingshot NW by the ULL a la 18z euro yesterday.

4-8" for most of NC, SC, VA and north GA. If anyone had told us back in November that we could all have this outcome not a sole in here wouldn't have jumped on it. Pretty maps and crayon drawings are fun, but if there is one thing we all know by now is it takes near perfect circumstances to get above a nuisance event in our forum. And the downticks on the euro and GFS as we creep up to go-time shouldnt surprise anyone. It happens every dang time. Someone in NC will post a photo of blue sky and sun on Saturday afternoon, bank on it.

Down to minus 1 here.

Anyone have the map of this mornings euro run.

6z Euro 5 run trend: You can really see the min-maxing on the 0/12z and 6/18z runs:

1 below zero with some fog.

I’ve always believed in my location 4 to 6 inches would be a good score. It starts to become more real realistic that that is a good baseline forecast and that alone has me pumped. I’ve never believed the weenie runs although I do still think there is potential east of me for someone to jackpot. Someone’s gonna get screwed too, it always happens. Regardless I just love this stuff!! .

The far east tracks are messing with the mean on the gefs

Amazing how you can see the flow stacking up against the mountains.

I don't either-They must really still expect this to come north. Maybe a WWA

Feb 6- second week of Feb look good lot of clippers

Yea but we’ve also been shutout for years

3 run qpf trend on the RGEM