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ground "whitened" overnight but looks to be sleet mostly but we also had thunder in the middle of the night.

6 straight months of ass weather. Got to love Chicago

Something weird is going on. I haven't seen this many temperature swings like this year. 20 degrees is normal, but there have been many 30, 40, and even one 50-degree swing so far. That isn't normal. I really hope this doesn't continue into the summer. I don't want it to be 100 degrees one day, and then 60 the next, in June or July. If I wanted this type of weather, I would move to Nebraska.

This winters below normal temperatures and extended snowpack have some expecting and wanting too much too soon, including myself. I'm a fan of winter storms and deep snowpacks that can be enjoyd. Unfortunately this winter featured a useless, 10" pile of encrusted bird and vermin feces . Who the hell wants to look at frozen s*** stains all winter? I'm also not very familiar with being in physical pain, so that might have played a big role, but In my opinion, this March sucked big time ****** ***'s regardless of temperatures. Stepping out the door for work some days was like transitioning from a hot shower into a f****** ice bath. Other than the active ,but in some ways disappointing storm pattern this March can go f*** itself.

Also, it is April.

I remember we got real wet at the end of Winter 22-23. It was foreshadowing the coming Nino. And 23-24 was wet like a Super Nino DJFM, but was really dry in November.

.05 in Marysville Total bust with rain this week here.

I never thought I'd see the day where YOU of all people cheer on warmth.

March is complete, so I’ll pass along an update on seasonal snowfall progress here at our site in Waterbury. The updated seasonal snowfall progression plot is below, and this season (shown in the red line) is now just barely hanging on at the bottom of the pack of similar seasons. It’s quite obvious from the plot that this season is still well above average with respect to snowfall, but below average snowfall for the past couple of months has certainly cut into this season’s position among some of our top seasons. This March certainly showed the weather dichotomy that the month can bring, and there were some interesting aspects with respect to snowfall. The updated storm list below is a good way to see the different periods within the month, with the first week continuing the wintry regime from February, and then the second week bringing in a warm, springlike period. After that though, we moved into a somewhat tempered, late-season bread and butter pattern with a good sequence of storms. You can see this starting on the 11th, and system after system pushed through the area to bring 11 additional storms. That pattern persisted almost to the end of the month, when temperatures warmed up a bit once again. The number of storms was well above the monthly average of roughly 8 to 9 storms, and in fact, March 2026 now holds the record for the most March storms in my database with 13, beating out March 2019, which had 11 storms. That record is a testament to just how active and snowy the month was once we were beyond that early week of spring-like warmth. But even with 20+ inches of snow, the month was still about 10 inches below average on snowfall. So we had a lot of storms, but they were all small to moderate snowstorms, and the month can often have some very significant events, and that’s why the snowfall average is up around 30 inches. On a seasonal note, it’s been consistently strong with respect to the number of winter storms – we’d already had 62 accumulating storms through the end of March, and we’re onto number 63 with some accumulation from the front end of the current system (Winter Storm Joseline). The highest number of accumulating storms I’ve ever recorded here in a season is 64 in 2018-2019, and that number is certainly within reach with all of April and May still to go. Below I’ve updated the statistical projections for where this season’s snowfall might end up. It’s really looking like something in the 180-190” range if snowfall progresses at an average pace from here on out; getting to 200” would take a hefty event or two and is very unlikely. But there’s still a couple of months to go in the snow season, and a good April can bring 20”+ of snow, so we’ll see what Mother Nature does. It looks like we do have another snowy period coming up from Sunday night onward, which I’ll touch on below. ≥150”: 100.0% ≥160”: 100.0% ≥170”: 100.0% ≥180”: 82.6% ≥190”: 18.1% ≥200”: 0.3% This season’s snowfall started out at a good pace – with three months of above average snowfall and 120” by midseason. None of those early winter months were actually outrageously far above average, but stacking a solid November, December, and January together with lots of storms and minimal warm periods is going to make an impression. The valley, and especially the mountain snowpack had a solid start, and that set up a fantastic base moving forward in the ski season. In the monthly snowfall plot below though, you can see how the snowfall pace fell off in February and March, which were both below average. I did a quick check on where the Vermont ski areas stand for season snowfall thus far, and the north to south listing of totals is below. The resorts along the spine of the Northern Greens are right around that 300” mark, which is probably around average, and I think Bolton Valley only has a week or two left before their planned closing. Hitting 300” is certainly the sign of a decent/average season in the Northern Greens, but those are typical numbers and they’re not going to be a huge story. Jay Peak is somewhat ahead of average and approaching 400”, which is a bit more notable, but they just hit 475” last season and are probably in that 400” range in about a third of their seasons. So, their snowfall number is good, but not groundbreaking. It’s when they pass 500” up there that you know it’s one of those very special winter/ski seasons. Jay Peak: 397” Burke: 169” Smuggler’s Notch: 301” Stowe: 294” Bolton Valley: 297” Mad River Glen: 192” Sugarbush: 222” Pico: 190” Killington: 190” Okemo: 126” Bromley: 178” Magic Mountain: 112” Stratton: 153” Mount Snow: 128” On average, the snow on our property here typically runs out in mid-April, and we seem to be on track for something average like that with a colder stretch coming up. There’s nothing too substantial expected at this point with respect to big events, but the BTV NWS is starting to discuss the period: Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 733 AM EDT Thu Apr 2, 2026 KEY MESSAGE 3: An upper level trough along with several lobes of embedded shortwave energy will bring upslope snow showers to our area from Sunday night through Tuesday. Cold air will sink down over the north country from Canada during this timeframe, and cooler than normal temperatures will remain through Wednesday night.

This is huge and it’s going to cause another massive WWB and very likely start “Bjerknes feedback”:

We have some pretty wild temperature swings coming in the next 3 days. All of these look to happen in the span of just a couple of hours. Warm front tomorrow: 50s -> 70s Backdoor cold front Saturday afternoon/evening: 80s -> 50s Warm front Sunday morning: 40s -> 60s Cold front Sunday afternoon: 60s -> 40s

86 at 3pm yesterday and 54 today

Couple pics from our brief chase near Wenona, IL. Nothing exciting but wasn’t a bad looking storm.

Was snowing pretty good driving over Rochester Gap just now. Road was snow covered at the top. Wasn't expecting that.

I havent lived in Schaumburg for 15 years... Should prolly change mine too

One major difference for the upcoming El Nino is we've had far drier winters nationally than heading into 2023-24. The precip pattern for 2025-26 is a lot like 1985-86 and 1962-63. Blend the precip-matches, with strong El Nino and -PDO El Ninos, warm by 1F, roll back one year, and you get a good match to last winter - although extremes are too dull.

You called first dibs so I shall make it so.

Won’t even get much thunder here. Just smallish showers. Instability is always trash with deep SW flow in this area. Zonal 500 mb flow delivers more instability, even at night. You don’t need deep CAPE for tornadoes with extreme shear, but I’d rather have a good light show than a low-topped severe event.

Forecast by 6z 4/3 essentially 3 hours from now. Going forward we will be doing this on 1st of each month by 6z.

Defintely

March forecast review: https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2026/04/march-warmer-than-forecast.html Not a bad effort for the month of March overall, but it ended up much warmer than forecast on a national level due to the failure of high latitude blocking to materialize following the split of the polar vortex, which was a forecast risk that was communicated last fall. Locally here in southern New England it was anywhere from 2 to 4*F warmer than normal, as opposed to the forecast of -2 to near normal. Seasonal recap incoming in May.

Just took the trash out - very heavy mist atm. Feels strange - not opaque like fog and heavier/wetter.

March Warmer Than Forecast Mild, Zonal Pacific Flow Mitigated By Stratospheric Disruptions Forecast Flaws There were two primary issues with the Eastern Mass forecasts composite for the month of March. First of all, the month was much warmer than anticipated nationally, with upwards of +10F departures over the southwest, as opposed to the +2 to +3F depicted on the forecast composite. Locally, disparity much less pronounced, as southern New England finished within the +2 to +4F departure range in contrast to the -2F to near normal that was forecast. The forecast was acceptable qualitatively speaking, since the southwest was warmest, but it was simply too cold. The forecast composite was also too wet, with the notable exception of the great lakes and Pacific Northwest. The former being due in large part to a duo of major winter storms mid month, which produced blizzard conditions over a large portion of Michigan and Wisconsin. An active Pacific jet was the driving force behind the precipitation surplus across the Pacific Northwest. It also served as the impetus for the much warmer than anticipated monthly temperature departures nationally given that the polar stratosphere did not evolve quite as anticipated near the end of the season. Pacific Jet Stronger & Polar Stratosphere Less Impactful Than Expected Two of the most prominent winter analogs identified last fall were the 2000-2001 and 2017-2018 seasons, which each featured a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) and accompanying reversal of the polar zonal winds on February 11th and 12th, respectively. This set the stage for the historic barrage of major winter storms to impact the region that followed throughout the month of March in both instances. While the latter portion of winter 2025-2026 did in fact include a blizzard (February 22-23) and zonal wind reversal on March 4th, the forecast timeline obviously differed somewhat from reality. Clearly this entailed that there was not a major winter storm between March 1-15 as outlooked last fall, and more importantly, potential impact from any polar disruption would be delayed relative to forecast, since the forecast zonal wind reversal from mid February ultimately verified as a mere Canadian Warming, as discussed previously. This allowed any residual high latitude blocking from latter February to rapidly relinquish it's grip near the onset of the month, which acted to truncate any colder intervals resulting from spasmodic episodes of PV stretching throughout the month. Here is the first such instance early in the month. Note how quickly the PV is allowed to retreat in the absence of blocking, leaving rapid warming amid zonal, Pacific flow inundating the nation. At the same time, the anticipated reversal of the zonal winds and accompanying split of the PV was finally observed in the polar domain on approximately March 4th. This split of the PV was then followed by a strong Pacific trough regime that resulted in record warmth about 7-10 days later, which was in fact very comparable to the sequence observed in the wake of the February 2018 analog-warming. This is same phenomenon also occurred to a somewhat lesser extent in 2001, as very warm temperatures with highs in the 50s also occurred on February 20th, 2001, which is 10 days subsequent to the February 11th, 2001 PV split. However, the progression of March 2026 differed from 2001 and 2018 in that high latitude blocking failed to materialize following the warm burst, approximately 15-20 days post PV split, as research suggests. This is where the forecast for the month went astray. Thus, as was the case with respect to the March 2-3 PV stretch and accompanying cold intrusion, the arctic outbreak triggered by the next episode of PV elongation on March 18-19th was also brief. One PV Love Elongates SE Towards NE & One Positioned Over Eurasia Following March 4th Split (Image Courtesy Judah Cohen AER Blog) This second major cold outbreak was well forecast given the passage of the MJO through phase 8. Note how quickly the PV lobe again retreated back northward in the absence of blocking to pin it southward. Image Courtesy of Judah Cohen AER Blog The nation was once again left in a mild, fast and zonal flow in its wake, which was the theme of the month. Incidentally, yet another reversal and split of the PV occurred on March 24th, as this brief arctic outbreak was occurring . The reality is that major polar disruptions of this ilk are very fickle and vary with regard to how they ultimately evolve, which is why the failure of this event to trigger major high latitude blocking was explicitly identified as a warmer risk for the month of March, both last fall and last month. "March should have a -NAO oriented MC deviation similar to that of March 2023, albeit with a less pronounced RNA, which may prove more favorable for a major east coast winter storm. Perhaps something more akin to March 2018: However, the relentless modern Pacific jet will need to be tempered somewhat in order to rival this month in terms of snowfall". Eastern Mass Weather 11-10-2025- The emboldened excerpt at the conclusion of the passage is largely why this warmer risk was identified in the absence of ample high latitude blocking, especially given the fact that the consistent RNA pattern persisted as forecast, albeit less pronounced than the extreme March 2023 west coast troughing. Note the trend for a faster Pacific jet over the past few decades as a byproduct of climate change, as illustrated in the winter outlook issued on November 10th. Here is the 200mb jet for the meteorological winter period of December 1 through February 28th (left) versus the jet for the month of March (right). The jet clearly grew much stronger during the month of March as heights lowered in the divinity of Alaska and much of the polar domain. The impact on the resultant pattern was very evident, as the enhanced jet may have even potentially acted as a deterrent to the establishment of high latitude blocking beyond the ides of the month, in the wake of the PV split. Note how amplified the pattern was during meteorological winter as a byproduct of a weaker jet and more high latitude blocking, which allowed cold to bleed southeast and into northeastern US . The difference is apparent versus the fast, zonal flow throughout a month of March, which largely trapped the cold in Canada save for a few instances in which the PV stretched to allow for brief arctic intrusions. Here is a juxtaposition of this past March with March 2018, which is very illuminating in that it portrays how much stronger the Pacific jet was this past March (right) relative to 2018 (left). The polar jet during March 2001 was weaker than both 2026 and 2018, which is not surprising given the aforementioned multidecadal trend. Accordingly there was a great deal of high latitude blocking with below normal temperatures throughout the northeast. Although our grasp as a meteorological community on the nuances of major stratospheric disruptions is tenuous at best, it is a reasonable postulation that the prominence of the Pacific jet may play somewhat of a role in the degree of high latitude blocking that ultimately occurs subsequent to each event. March 2026 did nothing to dissuade one from this ideology. Conclusions Drawn From March 2026 The blizzard having occurred in latter February instead of early March coupled with the timing discrepancy with respect to the evolution of the polar domain entailed that the months of February and March were effectively reversed from the 2001 and 2018 analogs. Timing not withstanding, the use of each season as primary analogs for the forecast PV split during the latter portion of the winter season was certainly not without merit. However, due to a combination of timing differences, inconsistencies regarding the precise manner in which the disruption of the PV manifested within the hemisphere, and the stronger Pacific jet relative to the two analogs the monthly clearly evolved differently than forecast. Although the strong Pacific jet and fast, zonal flow remained prevalent in the absence of high latitude blocking throughout a very mild month of March nation wide, spasmodic stretching of the PV managed to deliver fleeting arctic outbreaks throughout the northeastern US. These represented more abbreviated versions of the arctic intrusions that took place throughout the entirety of the cold season, which Eastern Mass weather identified last summer as a likely occurrence during the coming winter given the expected configuration of both the polar domain, as well as the extra tropical Pacific. This analysis proved very prescient in nature, and the battle waged between these stretching intervals of the polar vortex and the zonal flow that predominated the month of March was evidenced by the shorter duration of arctic outbreaks across the northeastern US in the absence of high latitude blocking. This effectively relegated exotic warmth in the monthly mean departures to the southwestern third of the nation, despite the fact that said colder infiltrations were short-lived owed to said dearth of blocking. The month was ostensibly poised to deliver an active grand finale to the winter season considering it featured two splits of the PV and an MJO progression through phase 8 in a similar fashion to that of March 2001. However, the inability of the cold to persist in the fast, zonal flow as it did throughout the majority of the winter season is undoubtedly attributable to why the month ended up so mild, which is risk that was identified in the winter outlook last fall.