All Activity

Until I get a legit all day long rainy day, not a thunderstorm, I'm declaring that the dry pattern continues and drought is still the base state.

Just got 0.42" rain in 16 minutes with rates peaking at 2.5"/hr. All done though. Parts of Parker got hammered. Saw some broad rotation in the cloud base on my way home from work in Aurora.

It’s been dry all summer long…..why would anyone go against that without a major pattern change!?

Almost all of the mainstream mets are pointing towards a torchy fall so...

6 tor in the PHI CWA, so I think the 5% tor risk worked out well. And just looking on radar what the Dover supercell was like, you knew things were quite favorable!

hail/street floods reported in Parker

Unless there was a steam expansion explosion, which can happen easily w/ a quick single strike (trees are common). this looks like it could have been "sizzle bolt" as I like call them. You know the ones that pulse multiple times in the same spot, sometimes lasting up to 4-5 sec in the most exceptional cases (I saw a bolt like this once in OK, and my jaw nearly dropped to the floor b/c it was so "long" in pulsing!). Or it could ave been a +CG, which are often 10x stronger than a typical -CG.

Lol. Another 77 mph wind gust

Yes, the density of CGs that evening when the LLCC was on the LA coast but the mid-level center was way to the S, the density of the CGs was among the craziest have ever seen for a TC close the the CONUS! Strong shear and dry air at mid-levels was basically sustaining a large supercell over the open Gulf.

Missing the heaviest part of the line, but getting some +CGs in the rear close-by makes my day! You can get some really odd acoustics! Also, the many times a +CGs is a long CC bolt at first, and then it comes down, so the flashing can be atypically extended. That's how you know many times it is a +CG even if you do not see the bolts. And I know ppl here know this, but look for the "bright-banding" in the rear of a MCS for +CGs. It's not bright-banding as in wet snowflakes aloft, but it looks the same. Broad 35-45 dBZ area. Typically, the precip is "big drop, steady light rain" under such echoes.

That's good historical info. And to add in, given our standards and practices today, and much better detection/documentation. It is highly likely Cristobal would have never been declared or gone completely undetected in those above mentioned years.

Oh and I am surely going to grab a new snowblower and likely getting another snowmobile. this the kind of winter I stare out the window and sigh every day with eyes welling up watching it rain

Good info! To quantify it in scale and time is of value. When you look at things enough, like wx patterns for whatever phenomena, it does sink in and provide that met experience that can't taught or trained, you just have to keep doing it yourself repeatedly over time, and keep gathering/gleaning tidbits here and there, so you eventually really do get a "feel" for things subjective and objectivity! And so far, the rule of thumb when it is very strong El Nino and the Atlantic hurricane season is suppressed still "works" and works well! I know it not the best for TC enthusiasts, but at least it was not a surprise.

I think that El Nino favors -EPO more than the historical analog composite has. May and October are good examples of this. EPO runs more Polar though than Hadley-mid latitude Cell meeting place, so the overall correlation/connection is lower. More random than your average El Nino year. I'd say it's 50/50. There has been -H5 this Summer 60-90N which since 2012 has switched for the cold season almost every time. -AO I think can sometimes run into -EPO in short durations.

We are totally into this. My last chase with @dailylurker the forecast for New York changed and I barged in his room at 3 AM telling him LET'S GO! The band forecast shifted 15 miles! Thank god you have the patience of a saint. @MillvilleWx you are so very welcome. Not only are you a kick ass guy, but you're also pretty damn good at explaining the nuances of weather to me. @dailylurker that squall was unbelievable. I posted a short video to the Garrett County Facebook page (one of them) and within a few weeks, I had over 4,000 views. I'm planning on this winter to be an overall torch but since we travel so well together, it ain't gunna matter much. We will hunt down the best snows and pile in the truck and say LFG! @NorthArlington101 you're welcome any time as well! It was awesome when you visited Garrett County that the two walks we took, it was snowing quite heavily on both. @WxWatcher007 you too! I'd love to meet up and with any luck, be buried up to our waist in LES. I am hoping we have more folks from our area chasing instead of armchair complaining that it's 40 and rainy and missed yet another storm chance.

In SYR rest of the week. Looks stormy tomorrow

Well, at least we know nothing has changed for the GFS concerning TCs! However, in this case, it was overdeveloping 95L not in the long-range (7+ days out) I seem to recall it did better in the short-range. I recall last year and the year before, when during the peak season, the MDR was shutdown big time from the SAL/dust/warm temps aloft/TUTTs and/or the ITCZ too far N, even then the GFS was not spinning up TCs. One advantage the global models have is that they know the large-scale synoptic environment well, so if they are not doing much w/ a system, but the short-range or TC models are, that's a red flag as the synoptic environment not favorable (this works best when a system is in its nascent stages). But it seems the GFS can't acknowledge the El Nino-driven hostile conditions in the MDR?, which i odd b/c they are screaming at us w/ that "barrier" of high shear across the nrn part of the MDR.

Knew it was too good to last. Oh, well been a nice run. Looks like a train of rain from the great lakes next week. Hopefully jackass gets his tobacco in by then.

The dry cool air was nice while we had it! Moisture is returning and appears Friday into possibly early Saturday is our best chance of rain.

1983 redux? But that was the year after very strong El Nino. 1982 was very low ACE though (3rd lowest since 1946). S-T-D, how does this rank historically, at least since the satellite era I wonder? Only 3.1 ACE so far (~12% of avg).

The invest doesn’t look half bad. Fun times in a coin flip environment.

Oh, and that far more apparent just on the forums in AmrWx, esp. on the New England group! Never have I seen such EEYORE-type attitudes, even after the two blockbuster snowstorms in New England this past winter, and a rather cold winter to boot (snow cover stuck around a long time even in DCA/BWI). But it had only been 4 yr since the last big snowstorm for the NEUS. You'd think it was 40 years from the posts! And then I have to keep telling so many, you have no idea how lousy it was for East Coast winters 1978-79 to 1991-92! However, two New England direct hurricane strikes during that tperiod, so not all "the worst!"