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That's good. I'm not sure what to think of that...I am thinking that the dry air would probably be on the backside of the precip which could could help with some heavier rates. Would see a scenario of where it rips like 1-2" for a few hours then shuts off. Lots of details to iron out today

A lot of that is from the Christmas Day rain if you look at the hour 27 6 hour QPF mean.

RRFS covering itself in glory before it is even used in forecasts

At peak overnight, We were pushing 3"/hr rates.

I just checked on WB for EURO , looks fine for SWCT, we'd pound , NE of here obviously much drier on euro, gfs def much drier here at onset in mid levels..

Confluence a bit weaker this run on the NAM. Probably going to bump north a bit, but again, really small changes

Same.

He might be overthinking this too lol..kind of like what happened last week.

@MJO812Congrats....I was wrong on December snow in NYC, and you were right. Reason being I missed the late month blocking. Let's see if you guys get above my 19-29" seasonal call.

I wanted too but I guess they're only available on pivotal-plus now and I don't know where else they are available but I would really be curious to see what they look like. When I started looking at soundings I had to double check the time stamps were correct and whether maybe they loaded in error...that's how bad they look lol

The combination of the warmth (the daily low temperature wound up at 35° in NYC), light precipitation rates, and warming at the mid-levels all suggested that the 2"+ NAM amount was unrealistic for the City. At that time, the forecast low was 33°-34°, but the NAM idea was unrealistic. With lows of 35° or above, a trace was by far the most likely outcome. The same would hold elsewhere in the NYC region at such an elevated low temperature. For example, below are the historical statistics for Bridgeport (1948-present) and New York City (1869-present): And here was the NAM map:

Looks like were getting into some of the dong now. About 2.5" so far. 27/25

Did you get to look at Euro soundings, I wont be able to get on my PC til later

at this point just need some form of precipitation - finishing the year missing about a quarter of the normal annual precip here.

Ratios will be high if temps are in the 20s. Thats what he is going with. I like 3-6 for NYC but I can easily see more with the banding. Lets see where we are at tomorrow.

He's in a far worse spot than CT is, even though he's not that far away in the whole scheme of things. Small changes can work for CT. They need something bigger. And the trends aren't linear as you know. We can trend wonderfully today and lose all the gains tomorrow.

Low of 33 and .3” of snow off of .11” qpf. All I’m asking for Christmas is an inch or two of white followed by a sleet bomb. What a glorious mess that would be.

I thought maybe it was a cod thing and still some errors with sounding generation but even down into NJ/E PA...those soundings are horrific looking. Thats some serious dry air punching in aloft. I was really shocked seeing the DGZ so high too but makes since because there is a deep warming layer from 850-750. But looking deeper I see why the Winter Storm Watches are where they are. The swath of heaviest snow is going to be tied right into the axis of strongest WAA which is going to be quite a bit away to our southwest. We still should get some light snow into SW CT I think...I was thinking there could be potential for several inches of snow there but may have to rethink to maybe only a couple inches possible.

Our whole neighborhood is doing luminaries this year. Going to be a pain if this wind keeps up

You thinking the mesos are trying to key in on a last minute Mid Altantic victory?

Yep. Blows.

Looks like 5.5" will do it. That includes the .5" or so from the Monday snow. A little bit of an over performer.

Welcome to my teenage years…they’re back. This happened constantly back then. It Sucked.

Was zoning out last night and put on Fox Weather. For years, I’d just zone out with TWC. It’s not bad and better than When Alligators Attack or Ice Road Bandits or whatever series TWC pushes in prime time nowadays. .

I think 6" is the ceiling with this event around here. We're not getting 1" of liquid out of this and ratio's are not going to turn .5" liquid into 10" of snow. And that assumes there is no mixing or taint. Just don't see more than 6" from this as a top number.