All Activity

84 and sunny here outside Dallas today.

I'll take any pattern change at this point. I can't recall the last time we were this warm and dry so early with little to show in the moisture/severe weather potential departments. The past month has been like 2007 and 2012 hooking up. No bueno.

A warming trend is underway. Temperatures will top out in the 60s tomorrow and then upper 50s on Sunday. It will then turn much warmer next week. Temperatures will likely peak near or above 80° during Tuesday through Thursday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around April 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged 0.00°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will continue through at least mid-spring. The SOI was -33.53 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.117 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 81% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 56.7° (3.0° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.7° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

May and June that year was really cold. I don't think it reached 96 in those months (I know it did in July and September). Of course, there was the freeze on May 18.

Who knows, maybe we'll get a nice rainstorm/mud season in October this time, when the high school football season is in full swing.

Same thing with the strong la ninas. 1916-17 was the only one in the first 100+ years post-1850. (Coincidentally, 1917 was the year when global average temperature hit a minimum.) Since then, we've had strong la ninas in 1955-56, 1973-74, 1975-76, 1988-89, 1998-2000, 2007-08, and 2010-11.

Are we sure these correlations apply in this new regime? If we look at April 1997, it was 5th coldest on record, but this year seems destined for back to back record warm months. The NBM numbers would bring us up to about +5.5F (1991-2020 climo) by the 18th/19th timeframe, whereas the current record is +3.4 in 2006.

Early summer vibes!

GWDLT

My water bills are looking to be outrageously high, but I have no choice if I want to keep the grass healthy.

Pre-El Nino Summers have a pretty good correlation at being below average, especially around the Great Lakes

SSGWDLT

Not in March. The DJFM NAO was close to +0.60, sustaining the decadal +NAO state Me and Ray said the AO would be lower than the NAO. That happened, the DJFM AO was -0.25 It's more accurate to say the AO cooperated this Winter

Ah, nope Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk

What I find interesting about the global average temperature, is that it has gone exponential, when mostly La Nina's have occurred since 1998. Per RONI, 5 of the last 6 years (20-26) have been La Nina. Per RONI, 7 of the last 10 years (16-26) have been La Nina. Per RONI, 11 of the last 19 years (07-26) have been La Nina. Per RONI, 15 of the last 28 years (98-26) have been La Nina. That's >50% La Nina since 1998. More than 50% of years have been La Nina since 1998. Had it been 33-33-33, global average temperature would have been higher over that time! The quick re-hit of Strong El Nino this year is going to push us back closer to the long term Neutral ENSO mark.

Lack of understanding what ENSO is if it's constantly pointed out that Weak-Moderate is better than Strong+. I'm not talking about its orientation changing. It's funny how a few analogs can make people prisoner of expectation. Logic test: What's a super La Nina like?

November? We all will be burned down to nothingness by then. This is beyond ridiculous.

2 meter T/NAM graphics were just a non product it was so bad. Not sure what the MET had ... I seem to recall 67 at BDL ( I routinely check there, KFIT and KASH because that arc includes me), and 63 at KASH but don't quote me. I only glanced and tossed 'em. 77 was the high in town here and 76 at the Oxbow ob 2 mi as the crow flies/NWS site. bad. They may actually do better tomorrow in the d-slope.

High of 76 after a low of 44.

Made it to 74 today - gorgeoues day,

73.2° for a high. Still 71° despite clouds.

Happy Masters weekend!

we underachieved temp wise for the city last few days even with bright sunshine..