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12z 3k is definitely warmer further east than previous runs. We pray.

If that's the case we're probably doomed. Make it to noon, ... 1pm tops here in Ayer. Could be one of those days where it's 74 and dewy with sun, and then 2 hours later, jacket and slate misty sky weather. It's hard to say. Well, sore anus April climate tells us it's likely, but sometimes tho rarely ...fronts will dangle there.

Looks like the front is in coastal Essex County.

Stratus is backing in there from Maine too. It’s been sun and clouds here and it’s finally nearing 60°. But it just has a feel with the E breeze that it isn’t getting much higher than mid 60s.

Low 70s even at the beaches this morning.

Yep, so far next week is looking ghastly.

Yea low of 60. Impressive for mid April

I'd like to assess where the main boundary is toward evening. We may also distill the present status quo with new convection during the daylight today ? seems humid and warming fast, with a residual plumb/outflow propagating through NYS poised to move into this warming environment. Not sure if that holds together as a trigger or continues to fan out and ultimately disappears like sometimes happens as the sun fixes the atmosphere in the morning. Anyway, right now some of those NAM solution with BD from two days ago are proven false. WPC's analysis doesn't look anything like that... not that they do a very good job charting BD fronts, but given to the regional obs layout with wind and temperatures, the fronts not moving and is situated central NE with no observable evidence of its kinking/collapsing along the Maine coast - so far. Watch that... soon as PSM goes NE at 16kts and crashes to 52 ...we're doomed. Otherwise, if we do erupt, rain cooling will probably "team up" and the whole thing repositions south. Guidance et al not likely picking up on those kind of meso nuances. If things reposition south ...elevated rise over a make-shift boundary makes elevated instability more "enlightening"

Had those two nice pop ups early in the evening down here in SW FredCo. And caught the tail end of that line to my north. Got 0.07” not much but will take what we can get at this point. Currently at 1.21” for the month.

Should be the warmest day of the season today on the island. High launching pad and limited onshore flow. Not a drop of rain last night. .

Temps going the wrong direction now. 51.6 and falling

We are on record high watch today. DCA: 89 BWI: 88 IAD: 87 I'm running ahead of the airports right now, already 78.3.

If you look at the indicies and the MJO everything seems to be trending towards a pattern shuffle.

Looks like 4 more days of 80F+, 60s Sunday and 50s for the highs early next week. I'm definitely less productive/lazy the warmer it becomes... 72F

Records: Highs: EWR: 88 (1960) NYC: 87 (1941) LGA: 86 (1941) JFK: 80 (2006) Lows: EWR: 25 (1943) NYC: 27 (1943) LGA: 28 (1943) JFK: 33 (1962) Historical: 1921 - Two mile high Silver Lake, CO, received 76 inches of snow in 24 hours, the heaviest 24 hour total of record for North America. The storm left a total of 87 inches in twenty-seven and a half hours. (David Ludlum) 1927 - New Orleans LA was drenched with 14.01 inches of rain, which established a 24 hour rainfall record for the state. (The Weather Channel) 1944: The maximum temperature for the date is 89°F. in Washington DC. (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA) 1949 - A hailstone five inches by five and a half inches in size, and weighing four pounds, was measured at Troy NY. (The Weather Channel) 1956: An F4 tornado passed along the western and northern fringes of Birmingham, AL during the afternoon. The twister killed 25 people along its 20 mile path. Most of the deaths occurred in the Stacey Hollow and McDonalds Chapel communities. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1958 - A tornado 300 yards in width skipped along a five mile path near Frostproof FL. A 2500 gallon water tank was found one mile from its original position (it is not known how much water was in the tank at the time). (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Thunderstorms developing along a cold front produced severe weather in the Southern Atlantic Coast Region. A tornado killed one person and injured seven others near Mount Dora FL. Drifts of hail up to two feet deep were reported in Davidson and Rowan counties in North Carolina. Myrtle Beach SC was deluged with seven inches of rain in three hours. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Death Valley, CA, was soaked with 1.53 inches of rain in 24 hours. Snow fell in the mountains of southern California. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Showers and thunderstorms soaked the eastern U.S. with heavy rain, pushing the rainfall total for the month at Cape Hatteras NC past their previous April record of 7.10 inches. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1990 - Thunderstorms developing along a stationary front produced severe weather from west central Texas to west central Arkansas during the late afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms spawned a tornado which caused more than half a million dollars damage at Fort Stockton TX, produced wind gusts to 65 mph at Dennison TX, produced baseball size hail at Silo OK and near Capps Corner TX, and drenched southeastern Oklahoma with up to 4 inches of rain in two hours. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1998: An F3 tornado hits downtown Nashville causing extensive damage but no loss of life. An additional 62 tornadoes touched down in Arkansas, Kentucky, and Tennessee. These tornadoes caused 12 fatalities and approximately 120 injuries. Click HERE for more information from the NWS Office in Nashville.

That would be brutal for eastern winter enthusiasts...would mean warmer and less snowfall overall, but perhaps more large events.

72 / 57 in the peak of the heat today / tomorrow with mid 80s to low 90s. Friday still very warm but falls back to the upper 70s - low/ 80s. Weekend is warm but clouds look to cap tems on Saturday and timing of the front sunday / storms. Cooler week near / below normal 4/20 - 4/28.

Nice Fata Morgana optical illusions this morning distorting MWN area.

Feel like that stuff was always going to stay north. I woke up myself and watched maybe 15 minutes of the light show to my north Kind of cool being down here in IKK and watching lightning that’s out over the lake

My house gets warm, especially upstairs, but it cooled down fine last night, especially with those strong south winds.

Agreed, I live in an old ass house (mid 1800's)with poor insulation and it only got to 70, windows closed, on my second floor yesterday after a high of 86.

That's some pretty impressive elevated instability by the NAM overnight. Even the latest HRRR is pretty solid. Think we want to watch for whether we can sneak into the northern edge of the steep lapse rate plume which should at least graze the coast. Regardless, still decent elevated instability but could be looking at something along the lines of 500-800 J versus upwards of 1500+ if we can get into those steeper lapse rates. Perhaps some risk for large hail?

Somewhat lower odds of a washout in the 10-14 day timeframe we are watching, but odds continue to increase for at least some rainfall

We picked up between 0.03" to 0.25" of rain with more across southern areas. Today will be our warmest day of the week and the year so far with temperatures reaching the middle to upper 80's. The record County high for today is 89 degrees set back in 1941 (Phoenixville) and 1896 (Kennett Square). Still unseasonable warm tomorrow through Saturday. We chill back to below normal by Monday and temperatures in some of the higher spots may struggle to escape the unseasonably cold 40's in the afternoon. There will also be a potential for a frost or freeze by Tuesday morning. Below normal temperatures appear increasingly likely for the remainder of April. Best chances of some much-needed rain looks to be Friday with better chances with the cold front on Sunday afternoon.