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I'm having to use imgur for gifs instead of giphy now because of resolution problems, so you may have to refresh the page to make the gif go in motion after you see it the first time.

Come on Euro. Make happy hour great again

Good news is that storms don’t follow what models do. Models simply guess.

I’m trying to add all the panels and get 10” minimum 16” maximum thru 4 am Monday

Glad to have joined this site, excited about this storm and all the insight on here from everyone!

I shop at Aldi's down here in Baltimore county. And every time I go it's packed. Storm or not lol . But I never go to stock up because of a storm. I usually have what I need

0z tonight should be the first model runs with that new flight data yeah?

Note Tomer’s EPS predominant precip plots are all snow for the metro areas.

At this lead time, we really only should be looking at the ensemble mean - and the trends within them - anyway

Alright stop. Collaborate and listen. Ice is back…

For what it's worth, 19 UTC NBM pretty much held serve from 13 UTC. Mean is 10.4", 73% chance of 6" or more, 63% chance of 8" or more, 36% chance of 12" or more. 4% chance of a historic level event (18"+). The spread has narrowed a bit, 6" to 13" (floor is up a couple inches). If the GFS leads us downward, that would be quite the bust considering all guidance right now, but I suppose it remains a possibility. Better plan for it.

There are still some height rises in front, but nothing like rises you'd get with a full triple phase. Could be one to something or ON something.

Or it could be precautionary since it's such a massive high impactful storm? Especially in the south where historic icing is possible with the colder solutions.

Yeah I am in complete shock that it went from congrats Delmarva to touching the sleet line in 24 hours.

Only has to hold for three and a half more days. What could go wrong?

With regards to the GFS, it looks to me like the shortwave that was phasing just kicked out in front of it so quick, it helps to suppress heights to the east There is still a small shortwave diving down through Oregon and CA that phase with the Baja low, but the larger piece stays separate.

I completely disagree but that’s what the board is here for. If the experts at the National Weather Service thought we had consensus and there would be no drastic changes and the forecast was locked in, they wouldn’t be sending Hurricane Hunters out on recon missions and increasing the number of weather balloon launches

Sorta like seeing the GFS less aggressive with the phase. Hopefully that leads to more of a compromise instead of continuing trends of amplification.

Hope it’s not congrats dendrite by Friday

I wouldn't lol

12z was further south

It is funny how much a small tweak here or there can be the difference from big snowstorm or apocalyptic ice

A foot of snow?