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Not the case several times in recent winters- although most of those were Ninas. Jan 2022 is a perfect example(my storm.) We were in shut(shit) the blinds mode with no apparent end in sight and 10 days or so later there was a major snowstorm across much of the area, and it stayed pretty cold and snowed another time or 2.

Everything falls apart when it sees the LV it seems the past few days. Maybe there is an invisible dome we can't see.

Do you think the setup would still work with climate change? I ask as typically when our pattern is shit it takes a good while to ever get cold again.

97 in the point Monday.

GEFS/ EPS

This seems to concur.

Swing and a miss for Raleigh this afternoon. Always fun to see storms die on approach and blow up again to the east.

Another yard refresh, 0.09” brings MTD to 4.72”

H5 went from shit to sugar over about 10 days leading up.

And another hot and humid day. High of 96.

What are the chances this goes to 5 C? not an expert on this...

Missed it all again today.

Are you referring to the cold low in Quebec? ECMWF at 90 hr shows the same as the GFS in terms of depth.

A nice classic gusty summertime storm just went through here and dropped close to a half inch. No lightning though.

0.0

Ensembles which should only be used at this lead time are nothing like that

Up in Harford county at a baseball game and getting stormed. Not too munch thunder or wind. That outflow produced more wind

Ended up with 0.14" where the heaviest hit SW of me. I have 3.95" for the month so far, so it was not a desperate need for now. Currently overcast and 77 with dp 73. Heard someone on Accuwx earlier today mention triple digits again for later next week .

I hope you’re trolling. Otherwise you’re just mentally challenged if you can’t realize the destruction a +5°c super nino would have on the planet, unless if you’re cool with widespread crop failures, ecosystem damage, major economic destruction, lives being lost etc.

Looks like no rain chances for at least a week

True, that is why I mentioned the area further upstream in PA. Yeah, its a considerable distance from you, but moving on a trajectory to head South and be on the Eastern Shore. Currently that area is warned with a STW and a FFW. ( More than likely that area may dissipate looking at the lastest trends. ) Storms that were headed towards me went poof.

Yeah.. the part of I left out about that - because few people in here read anything longer than a blurb anyway - is that the surrounding medium is very warm. Comparing to your example, 582 to 584-ish non-hydrostats over Colorado is lot different than trying to run a 542 dm core up there when there's heights nearing 600 just west of Chicago like what the GFS was selling as near-by as 120 hours. The gradient is unusual for mid summer - mechanically contributing to why there is a such a long wave lengths ( also, highly unusual at this time of year) between eastern Canada and the Urals of eastern Europe - another point I was making. Under the radar bigger anomalies because they don't affect people directly - perhaps - but they're there nonetheless. May all be a moot conversation anyway... I suspect the GFS is over amplified with the dipole between Iowa and N QUE. I would bet on the 597 dm hgts in IA before I would bet on the <545 dm heights up there. I just check the euro and it's backing off that idea up there on this 12z so we'll see but it's likely it was a bs. I've been watching the GFS for year do this. I think it's too efficient or something with the pseudo adiabatic machinery ( physically). Because it over produces height falls ivo troughs and then ends up with surpluss depth.. It then tends to accumulate ( talking about the operational version) out in time such that by D10 ... ( when it doesn't matter anyway hahaha), it's consummately deeper than every other guidance since incense burners sniffed glue.

Warmed up nicely once clouds cleared. A tad humid. Got start the fungus treatments on lawn with this weather.

Yeah most of the activity firing behind this boundary is staying east in DE.

Last chance for a t storm following the ne turnpike. It all or nothing for the LV in the next few hours.