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So far most models have trended better at 12z!! Now we wait on the king!!!

I asked my AI girlfriend if Salisbury could get 3 feet of snow. She said "we need to talk"

Gefs much better

Two good storms here, 24" and 13.2", but by Dec 15 we'd gotten 51% of the snow season total, which was about 15" BN. January did have our coldest afternoon highs since Fort Kent on 14-15, with -11 and -8, and a stiff breeze. (The -11 was spoiled by the -7 at my previous evening's observations.)

The Euro AI! It has shown snow for us many runs in a row now.

Agreed about the budget cuts. People have no idea how detrimental they've been to the public along with everything else horrible the administration has done to government agencies.

4 days out. Not so long range anymore. Definitely some interesting Solutions in there. CMC is just ridiculous.

The 12z GEM would be a winter storm for the northern Plateau, SE KY, SW VA, NE TN, and WNC at minimum. The ingredients are there. I am not sure it can get back this far west, but the GEM shows one path towards that. This has a chance to be a monster on the coast.

Would love to be in Donner Pass, CA right now.

Buy it. If you need justification other than just wanting it, set out a plan where you'll be using it some of the time for making gifts for others.

Not gonna lie, at this point part of me is wondering if I'll wind up with below normal snowfall for the season.

When we get a run where the SLP tracks inside the benchmark, then I'll get excited. Also, when something shows more than just a glancing blow from the deformation banding which largely remains offshore, even with today's 12z suite so far.

No I don't know...every single model has shifted quite a bit...Euro had been the only steady one and then it shifted last run...

Those are definitely favorable shifts last 3 runs!!

GEFS still lean right of the gfs

All the 0z runs last night got new hurricane hunter recon flight data. There’s another hurricane hunter reconnaissance mission tonight at 0z, so those upcoming runs will also have the new data. The 6z, 12z, 18z runs today aren’t going to have it. They are sending up the reconnaissance flights at 0z because of what DT spoke of the other day….budget cuts leading to weather balloons not being launched anymore from sites they used to be

TennesseeWx peeps are throwing the towel on winter and posting their grades already. I'm still a month away from doing any sort of recap.

The 12z GEM dumped 72" over portions of DELMARVA.....I have been watching this system for a few days. The 12z GFS backed west but is no threat here, but the trend matters. Not sure it can get back this far w/ 100 hours to go, but the GEM is potent over E TN, especially the mountains. However, lower elevations would be impacted by that solution.

70" plus 90 mph winds that would be fun

It's the nam at 84 hours so it wouldn't matter if it was good. Nam at 84 hours is as useful as the letter "g" in the word lasagna

I feel like this is prob an advisory deal near and N of pike....maybe someone a little further north can get low end warning.

CMC looked like it was rain but the snow map is a hit. It was weird

Mm.. the GFS is hugely trended guys - that should be the take away. I realize the dose spilled before it got in the syringe on this run ... get over it. Seriously, needless ( or should be ...) to remind that at 120 hours away, heh. I think until we are safely, technologically unlimited to where 2010 Boxing Day type corrections can't happen anymore, 120 hours is an eternity. Plenty of model runs to fumble around and either fuck this up or bring it back.

UKIE a beast but mostly OTS

Agree, as long as we keep expectations in check with this setup it will be fun to track.