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Hello Rob…. Not sure if you know but I’ve wondered what happened to Will Rutgers. I found his posts, at times, enjoyably entertaining. I figure asking you will negate starting another to do…. As always ….

It would be getting into the city that would be the problem, especially via express bus on poorly treated roads. I'd be adding an additional hour to my trip in travel time.

Imo don’t fret and split hairs on QPF quite yet. Overrunning setups tend to trend wetter down to zero hour.

Are you cliff diving because of 18z runs? I couldn't believe when I saw 18z, I haven't checked for a day, and now there is a low from the gulf coast up the coast! It even gives Florida panhandle snow again! Very positively surprised. +PNA storms don't vanish as easily as -PNA There may also be snow for the Patriots home game Sunday

It doesn’t look to me like it was due to a skew from amped members. This was a typical notable shift NW in the avg track.

Fwiw, the GEFs has bodily moved west, by several grid points actually. Even has a fair number of middling depth members straddling the BM. 12z left, 18 right Probably should also add... sense of this is a middle ranged cyclone ... a correct west track has possibility, but the sub 980 idea of the GFS probably doesn't pass the middle range amplitude dimming aspect.

give me this one please

Where and how the ridge and blocking sets up for Sunday is everything ladies and gents What we want it to look like What we don't want it to look like

Yep. I actually liked the H5 better on the 12Z but still a good run.

Seems like not much changed overall. The GFS is the strongest western outlier and a model blend would bring a near miss or scraper. Multiple micro-lows and vorticity near the Lakes works against us. The optimal solution involves a vormax near the base of the trof to sharpen it up and involve Gulf moisture. With some ridging out ahead of the trof, that would bring precipitation up the coast and keep a SLP more closely tucked. Otherwise this ends up more offshore.

OP was a tick towards the Euro at H5 but the GEFS continued to move NW. Will have to dive into the members more to see whether or not that’s just being skewed by some amplified outliers.

Yeah, wind and snow for a dome team like Houston...

Not buying latest run of HRRR verbatim, but would be a big time heartbreaker if it came true. 18-20” a mere 8-10 miles to my east. I could drive but if it’s “too impressive”, I don’t know that I’d risk it given limited & delayed snow treatment on roads in these parts.

This is due to a significant shift NW of the GEFS mean from 12Z to 18Z. More shifts later are most likely as of current thinking.

See what happens when the PNA goes positive low pressure on the coast correlation Notice how it's much higher than forecasted too.. 14 day had it at neutral.

Hopefully this pans out and it’s puking in Foxboro between 3 and 6pm.

We are very unique in the fact we are usually too far north, south, east or west. Lol!

Even if it snows there would be zero reason to cancel any plans. It takes a ton of snow to slow anything down in the city and that’s not on the table

If only the system got its act together 6 hours before it did, the area could be looking at 6-12, maybe more.

the AIGFS did not actually adjust NW from what I'm seeing. It was just a little stronger in the cyclonic envelope and by virtue of that slight increase ... expanded by a small margin around all quadrants. This may have given the allusion to a NW adjustment. I guess tho that's kind of quibbling ... I mean, if it ended up at 978 mb, it will have expanded it's impact radius that much more and I don't think it really matters sensibly - if you're in, you're in

has that ever worked lol?

For my sanity and everyone else's I hope this is not a GFS wild goose chase.