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I do like the timeframe after Jan 25. Not sure about the Jan 22-25 window, any storm there looks like it wants to cut. But hope we can get a follow up after.

Except even the Gulf coast is porked.

10th, 25th, 50th, 75th, & 90th PCTL snow fall totals (inches) for GFS ensemble, EPS, and Canada at DCA over the next 10 (15) days. PCTL GFS EPS Canadian GFS EPS Canadian 10 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.2 25. 0.4. 0.2 0.1 0.7 0.7 0.5 50 1.0 0.5 0.4 2.3 1.9 0.9 75 2.2 1.0 0.9 5.1 5.2 2.0 90 3.4 1.7 1.6 8.6 8.1 3.1

And some of it's timing, further west means slower means more spacing between the waves and more ability to develop and for the trough to tilt negative

Nobody is or was defending anything. Man, you are one miserable individual.

I thought exact same thing, I think once we get Thursday's system out of here, the models can handle that wave better. Here's the Euro trend over the past 6 runs, definitely digging the wave further West and deeper each run. A little more tilt and further digging, this thing could look pretty nice IMO.

Crap…. First October and now November snow is a kiss of death

More snow in November than January?

The juice is coming... hopefully

I kind of figured you were haha. It was pretty entertaining though watching that blow up for a bit lol

Yeah, the lack of STJ in a nina.

It does look like the clipper train could at least keep things wintry through the next week, remains to be seen how much accumulates, down wind of the lakes should win either way though.

I was just given you shit - I knew what you meant, and actually don't really care other than hopefully succeeding in being an annoying word Karen lol

seems like a classic Nina with the colder/snowier Dec followed by a warmer/less snowy Jan

Just like last year they keep getting can kicked.

I legit laughed at this. I love the defense of this winter when pictures of a rural access road in far northern Maine has a foot of snow on it. Like wow, I had no idea, I’m totally sold, this winter rules

My yards the same, the dog has been slipping and sliding.

We had a January thaw, right on cue...but it came and left this disaster, hopefully we can work on it some more before the arctic revisits the area. Makes for taking the dog out at night quite the adventure.

This morning's preliminary value of the PNA was +0.707. That's the highest the PNA has been since November 20, 2025 when the PNA reached +0.738. The PNA will remain positive for several more days before it is forecast to go somewhat negative for a short period of time. Afterward, the GEFS show the PNA rebounding. It remains plausible that a regime change (20+ days where the PNA>0 during the January 12-February 11 period or the 30-day period following the end of the recent long-duration PNA- regime) can occur. If so, perhaps the best opportunity for a moderate or larger snowstorm in the Middle Atlantic Region or Northeast could be in the January 25-February 15 timeframe. For such potential to be realized, the synoptic pieces would need to become available. So far, the subtropical jet has been largely quiet this winter. Should the forecast strong WWB materialize, that could lead to the subtropical jet's becoming more active across the southern tier of the U.S. some 10-14 days later. Whether that would align during a favorable longwave pattern remains to be seen. In the near-term, lighter snows are likely in parts of the Great Lakes Region and Northeast. The lake effect belts could see greater snowfalls, especially as Arctic air could try to get involved next week.

I like all aspects of winter. Cold, snow, ice, even the annual thaw as long as it’s not extended fall. Until winter becomes irredeemable. We’re not quite there yet in SNE but it’s getting bad to be sure. It’s becoming put up or shut up time. Need to be in striking distance of climo by the end of January since I think we’re probably relying on a February SSW to extend winter chances into March.

It seems like the cold hasn't been the issue at all this year. No real torch. We just don't do coastal storms anymore for some reason?

"It's as if the satellite's 'eyeglasses' got better and better over that period," says Elias Chereque. "It looks like there's more snow now than there used to be—but that's only because the satellite kept getting better 'prescriptions' for its glasses. It looked like there was more snow, but that's not what was happening." https://phys.org/news/2026-01-atmospheric-physicists-error-widely-cited.html https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adv7926

95/100 times that would not happen. RIP James. He started an epic period.

Last year was sneaky cold too (compared to recent winters anyway), though not nearly as cold as this one has been. Both winters have featured a dearth of big systems. It’s just been a lot of dryness.

True but everyone remembers James stealing your degree for the Jan 15 blizzard. #wewillneverforget