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I know it’s the 12k NAM but 6z had 2-3” all the way back into central MD. Curious to see if the NAM holds strong on that idea today.

zzzzzz

Sad that it has been over a month since I've posted in here! I guess every penny counts, lol. 11/11 0.1 11/30 0.1 12/02 0.2 (sleet) 12/05 3.8 12/06 1.5 12/08 0.5 12/09 5.1 01/17 0.1 Total 11.4

Legit snow right now. Quick 1/2” down; road is covered and they treated it this morning. Be nice to get the kids out sledding tomorrow.

Up to 3" already in Fleetwood, could hit 4 or more based on radar

Could just be a blip. They like to waffle back and forth at times. The more north/south the orientation is the better for us and it bumped just a tad more east/west there.

Nice burst at my brother’s place in Ellicott city right now too. Beautiful out there right now.

Nice!!!

There's a low level dry slot that noses in for a bit up to the MA border.

They'd need high confidence in 6+ for warnings. I don't see that. Even if we're amping to game time given the fits this one has given forecasters how could you have high enough confidence that we don't get a messenger shuffle (boo, I know) at the very last second?

Ok really good burst happening. If this can continue for like just 15 mins I could measure something.

flurries in White Plains, 34

From Chris and Dan this morning .

Went out for a Dunkin run this morning. First photo 9:45am Center St (309) Tamaqua. Second photo backyard measurement 10:15am.

LOL. 2 regular size + 1 college size that houses my personal stash.

Yup...have to give credit where credit is due and this truly ends up being the case that is a major win in the AI camp and maybe even builds some confidence moving forward in which camp to follow should we see significant discrepancies between AI and traditional modeling. Now, that doesn't mean the results would be the same moving forward but this is a big confidence boost

Haha yeah. I have some stickage on the deck at the moment.

I resemble this remark. .

If that is thrown into the trash, set the RRFS on fire.

Maybe one day I'll come fix it up lol

Hearing pingers now. Think I switched over to sleet

GYX upping for today. 3-5. Must like what they are seeing upstream

This applies for for western areas as I do think eastern Mass/Cape stand a good chance for several inches of snow but I have major reservations about how much farther west appreciable QPF gets. I would like to see better dynamics overall to validate this. For example, on the ICON...I think that western edge would be nothing more than just some snow showers with putrid snow growth. Probably going to be an eastern Mass event with the cutoff back west to maybe around ORH

I think even though their resolution sucks, AI had the right idea of shortwave curl and also the kickers behind it. I feel like those kickers mattered more because the flow in the ops at first was directly from the NW and just booting the main shortwave out. I certainly did not buy the AI to that extent.

rghQc1wa4STGMt2q.mp4