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EPS looks solid for the 8th

Latest spc meso analysis has a 120kt jet about to enter western PA and WV. Might see some legit winds west of I-81 today.

BOX loves those href clown wind maps that always target the ORH hills

About 1/8" of ice. 32.4 degrees here at 300 feet. Hopefully we get a few hours above freezing to eliminate any possible damage from the winds.

Surprised the HWW doesn't go out to eastern Mass for tomorrow

5 days pre Boxing Day 2010 is number one analog for the 00z EPS Day 10.. Scoring a .93.. Eastern Mass scored 10-20" .. Place that storm 50-100 miles east and this forum gets 20-32"

Crappy way to run a Holiday torch.

the future.... HGEFS (Hybrid-GEFS): A pioneering, hybrid "grand ensemble" that combines the new AI-based AIGEFS (above) with NOAA’s flagship ensemble model, the Global Ensemble Forecast System. Initial testing shows that this model, a first-of-its kind approach for an operational weather center, consistently outperforms both the AI-only and physics-only ensemble systems. HGEFS — the most innovative application in the new suite. The HGEFS is a 62-member "grand ensemble" created by combining the 31 members of the physical GEFS with the 31 members of the AI-based AIGEFS. Performance: by combining two different modeling systems (one physics-based, one AI-based), the HGEFS creates a larger, more robust ensemble that more effectively represents forecast uncertainty. As a result, the HGEFS consistently outperforms both the GEFS and the AIGEFS across most major verification metrics. A NOAA first: to our knowledge, NOAA is the first organization in the world to implement such a hybrid physical-AI ensemble system. Area for future improvement: NOAA continues its work to improve HGEFS’s hurricane intensity forecasts.

Yeah we always tend to rot longer than expected at 32.2* in these scenarios

Same here. Fog and 33F.

I’m under a WWA for 2-6 from 1pm today-1pm tomorrow…..

The schtick from the same actors is tiresome. I know I've contributed to that discourse in the past, but I've tried to stop it as best I can.

Dumping rain at 32.0°. Lovely.

How’s 2026/27 looking?

St. Louis had its fifth biggest daily temperature range on record yesterday, as the mercury plunged from a December monthly record 78F (25.6C) to 22F (-5.6C). That was the largest daily temperature range on record for December.

Looks like someone can pick up anywhere from an inch to 4 if they get in the right bands over next 2 days. Maybe slightly more in Cranberry and Butler Co.. 12z NAM suite is not as generous as the HRRR. A spotty inch or 2.

Doesn't include most of last storm in SNE

Good update, Holston. I could be overly optimistic but it wouldn't surprise me if January fun 'n games continues into the first half of February. We've finally killed the heat dome in our state. Waking up to 20s never felt so good! On a separate note, I can't upload any media over 3.7 kb on this forum which essentially defeats the purpose. I'm not sure why my issues are confined to this site only. Anyone else having that problem? I'll see if I can clear some things to fix the issue. Not super tech savvy.

33° rain now, but it was quite icy this morning. Side roads were slick and sidewalks in downtown Greenfield are treacherous.

Really good example of a NA ridge retrograding at mid latitude w/ the HL ridge also doing the same. If that is stable, that is game on and very tough to break down. If it traps a piece of the TPV, even better for winter weather. Bottom up strat splits....do they affect the troposphere immediately? Good overall trends continuing on modeling overnight.

Finished with 4.4" here and have close to 12" for December. Not bad at all.

Looks like a colder than average December is a lock.

Figured this place would be hoppin' after reading the dismal long range thread... @WxWatcher007 This is your fault for retiring!!!

IP/ZR this morning 31°F

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