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Maybe I can plant my tomatoes in the garden next weekend! My petunias are barely hanging on, if they can make it a few more days then they'll be golden.

I'll hug the GFS to bring my third dusting in 4 days lol

I forget who it was exactly, but during the 2020-2021 winter someone ran the numbers on "snowless" mid-winter stretches at DCA and found that virtually every year in the modern era had at least one 30-45 day break between snowfalls. A few of the analog winters had even more prolific stretches, such as 2005-2006's 58 day break. I suppose that these types of breaks are more stressful in La Ninas because of how snowfall climo runs downhill as winter progresses, but the latter halves of 05-06, 17-18, and even last winter show that this is not always the case.

Can a certain someone at least admit they were dead wrong about December? Unbelievable how most of the area has had more snow cover days than the previous few winters, and we just finished December. We aren’t going to be mowing in February. Which reminds me, I have to drain the fuel out of my mower.

yea--im about to pull the plug.

We back? Dead?

watch @JenkinsJinkies weenie me for saying that it's rain lol

To be fair, he didn't say snowstorm. Lol

Cloudy cold day. Temp 29 at 1pm

its rain lol

February I still feel is a lost cause, although if we delay this flip it makes it more likely February, at least maybe the first 10 days is serviceable. There has been 1 guy consistently hyping February though since like October and thats Larry Cosgrove who has been saying 1/20-2/15 is pretty much the window for this winter and has not moved off that idea.

Oh I agree - I just don’t think it’s wise to take any source or model run verbatim and then pass along as “fact”.

What are the odds the rest of winter will be snowy/ cold, if December is below average temperatures but above normal snowfall? From past memory I feel like the stats were 50/50? Could go both ways?

He is also posting nonsense in the main enso thread.

I like their analysis but they have been more wrong than right.

By February 1st or so we should have a good handle on January.

To go off track for a second, With modern day technology and ways to track people, doesn't this forum have the ability to know if someone is making a new account if they were blocked, banned, etc? Through IP, or emails? I only ask as it would seem there's been mention of people acting like other people, assuming they been banned or restricted etc.

I’m not going to lie, I’m kind of annoyed that we are in early January and tracking a pattern change, not individual threats. That said, despite getting some bad luck in December, your ideas about how things would evolve in early winter have been dead on so far. I like your evidence based style, you listen to arguments for both cold and warm despite having a cold/snowy bias on a personal level (most of us do). You hold yourself accountable and learn from your mistakes and it shows in your work. I hope you are right about how the rest of winter plays out.

That said I think only NYC/LGA had above normal snow and that was by like a half inch maybe, JFK was shutout or close to it. This Dec was overall a snowier pattern, it would be quite the surprise if January ended up even like +3

I definitely agree there. We’re in some serious uncharted territory rn. We joke about the models being garbage but this is the first year I’ve seen even ensembles be largely clueless into the mid range.

is the euro going to give us a fantasy storm? stay tuned

Happy new year from Germany (here on holiday) where it's currenttly snowing. Should get around six inches today in total and have had some heavy rates of around 1 inch an hour. This was before things got heavy .

Yeah jan 06 was definitely a torch

Agree with the bolded 100% I guess when the snow prospects go down the toilet, the only game in town is to watch the cats fight. Aldo 04 is an instigator

The one consistent thing this last 6 weeks is models have largely been able to lock into the theme at around 168 hours at least so I'd think by the 6th we really want to see consistent ideas of the trof kicking eastward and the ridge building out west if we are going to see the 12th or 13th being the start of something manageable, if we are not seeing that by then I think we can kick this more out to the 16th or 17th