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Damn the winter is over talk is starting already.. on Jan 4th!! Lol

Excellent analysis. I wonder why MJO 6 leans cold with -AAM… but thank you so much!

Hopefully it improves in a day or 3

we lost the Euro AI. Winter appears to be over unfortunately.

The pattern is still on schedule to send the ridge west by Jan 11-12 w/ those mechanics underway now. So, to me the first legit window(excluding the light snow that possibly falls next weekend at the onset of the pattern change) sits right tentatively around Jan 14th w/ another right around the 20th - reference Cosgrove. Just impossible to know right now what/if interaction the northern stream has with the STJ. I like the Euro at this time of year, but the GFS isn't far from the same solution. Good trends. Once we get to the 14th, it really looks like one window after another until the ridge retrogrades into Asia, we wait about a week, and then do it all over again to end January and begin February. I still like a 95-96(lite) pattern evolution. Whether we can get they type of snow? IDK.

meh...snow showers but with a few more tweaks

He needs to let that go lol that was 4 years ago

I Now know why I got 30" in that storm. NE RI to Brockton, MA was inside the Yellows More than anyone else. WHY can't we get storms where I'm ever even Close to being in the bullseye the whole time? God, what a storm. What a perfect radar for so many reasons. And 4 Seasons, not all your links work on the different storm radars, I'd LVOE to see them all! This is great!

At minimum, what the 12z Euro is advertising would likely provide northern stream vortices w/ some light snow for portions of the forum areas.

this looks interesting

This is an example of the potential where this could go. With it being right around d10-11, certainly this will change some. Interestingly, you can see the first trough over the Mountain West beginning to give way to the second trough in the Eastern Pacific.

The 12z Euro, and I can only see the 500 map at the moment, shows the trough deepen as a second wave drops into the trough around the 14th. That "should" yield a window if true. The Euro gets a bit of a nod as it has been steady with the ridge/trough progression. It seems the Euro is about to score the win w/ EPO. It had it first and wouldn't budge...the control actually had it first if memory serves me correctly.

Excellent work as always GaWx. My initial thought is how is this correlation with phase 6 when you consider the SST anomaly not being significant? DT was suggesting we are basically near neutral at this point.

Same thing happened at our house. Wife was sick as a dog for a few days and the boy and I didn’t catch it.

As this ridge retrogrades, in my mind I think we see a window where it sits in the right spot (nearly perfectly). If there is cold air available, I think that is when we see the worst of winter delivered. The 12z GFS, though flawed, shows an example of how this could happened right at the end of its run. Be sure to look at 500 anomalies - you can see it better. As the ridge shifts West, the initial ridge is just too far to the East. As it retrogrades, is slides into the sweet spot where cold can really get southward. With the STJ showing a less dormant look....that is the window. The reason the GFS is dry on this run is that it slowed down the retrograde considerably....so the initial trough is too far to the east to connect w/ the STJ. As long as the ridge continues to retrograde, at some point that trough is going to be right over the Tenn and Ohio river valleys IMHO. As for how the ridge retrogrades, see my comments from the last few days. I think the pattern retrogrades that ridge into Asia....then does it again. That fits the MJO rotation and blocking pattern. I do think the base pattern has a lot of HL blocking FWIW.

Yeah, at least the main streets. Secondary streets are a longer wait. The plowing hair is generally quite good. It’s just that they wait until there’s “real snow”

Let’s do a NVA/DC meetup for anyone who wants to….MDers of course welcomed but I’m not going into MD for it

Another 0.9" last night after 1.3" on NYE, bringing me up to 20.2" for the season. The pack fresheners have been nice lately

Maybe something to watch the next couple days,not all the models still agree with the timing, On this afternoons run the GFS shows the columns basically saturated in the TV,even tho there is some half decent SRH,looks more like some potential hefty rain ATM with the LLJ kicking up to 50 to possibly 70 kts Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CST Sun Jan 04 2026 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... A low-latitude closed low west of Baja CA at 12Z Wednesday should evolve back into an open wave, aided by the development of a large-scale trough becoming established over the West. EC-AIFS and AIGFS remain the preferred guidance for a more probable slower ejection of the low-latitude wave onto the southern Great Plains through Thursday. At least isolated severe potential seems plausible to the east-southeast of a southern High Plains lee cyclone as a modifying warm-moist sector advects north from the western Gulf. But yesterday's NCAR ECENS-based ML guidance remains below 5 percent for Thursday, while the latest GEFS-based SPC-CSU and NSSL ML guidance have trended lower to only 5 percent peak areas. D6/Friday still appears to have the best relative severe potential, despite the pair of GEFS-based ML guidance trending lower and in areal extent of 5 percent peak probs. Neither of these have any appreciable overlap with the preferred ECENS-based 5 percent areas from NCAR. In any case, an amplified upper trough appears likely to shift from around the Rockies to the Great Plains. Most EC-AIFS ENS members now support central states cyclogenesis. But predictability remains low regarding the spatiotemporal details and amplitude of cyclogenesis, which is likely related to the handling of shortwave impulses embedded within the broader trough. An area-of-interest for a future 15 percent severe highlight roughly includes the Lower MS to TN Valleys and Deep South.

I've headed back west after being in the DMV for a few months, and yesterday I drove across South Dakota and saw some great freezing fog aftermath. (I cropped them and so they'll be pixelated if you look at them on a big screen) It was about 22 degrees when I took these, but after driving across the Midwest on Thursday and Friday and dealing with the lake effect snows and the temps in the teens, 22 was a day at the beach.

What's up, everybody? The 12z suite is rolling. There are some really good looks embedded in modeling. As noted, the AI GFS is loaded. The GFS is is very progressive as its bias. Details are starting to come into focus with the pattern change sitting right at 7-8 days out. The 12z CMC has light snow next weekend over portions of the forum area, and then looked ready to roll aa the model ended. Cosgrove(off the top of my head)noted in his update last night that the window of Jan13-15 has potential for a winter storm from Texas to DelMarVa. I agree with that. He noted another window just around or after Jan 20. I also agree with that. Interestingly, and we talked about this a few pages ago, he noted that a Baja low may well eject the energy used in one of those winter storms. I generally don't mind rain in LA. That, in my mind, has tended to correlate to snow over MBY at some point.

Any vertigo/dizziness with that?

yes. Models have nothing to do with a bad pattern

Wife has been sick and coughing since Xmas eve…not sure how I avoided it.

Yes it does and there is moisture!