All Activity

A tradition like no other .

If you are basing analysis off of the weekly output, I get it...all I'm saying is they are probably right given the Pacific trough regime that has become established and a probable reflection event looming later in January. I like to use those as probabilistic tools, rather than deterministic.

Fo sho

I doubt sun angle will be an issue lol

Is this the earliest we cancelled winter?

You wait all year for winter, only for it to be seemingly over in time for Christmas. Just unreal.

We toss the GFS. It’s coming…

Lets sneak that down to Cape Ann

All three deterministic 12z runs bring the trough eastward w/ a mega strong -NAO in place. Larry Cosgrove mentioned that cold could be coming back east by the New Year, but also noted the forecast is incredible difficult during that time frame. We have seen this exemplified as models are swinging wildly from one solution to the other. He notes the NE would take the brunt of this. I do think we are seeing December 28-29th as a step off point towards another cold front of the seasonal variety. That could have a decent amount of amplification with it, so it will need to be watched. It is what happens immediately after that which I think will determine the first weeks of January. 12z has a good look. I think the NAO is making its presence felt on modeling now. I normally defer to ensembles, but maybe not this time. I think ensembles are way behind the curve on this pattern right now. It is unusual for that to happen, but it does occur w/ complex setups. The Euro control and its ensembles(for the Weeklies) were night and day yesterday. I think this is one of these patterns which would be easy to over analyze. For now, I just admire the wild solutions that are out there. Kind of fun! I personally think the end game of this is very cold air getting dumped into the Lower 48. The mechanism is in place to unload a majorly cold airmass southward. We may not have a long lead for when this occurs. Things to watch as we go forward....strength and duration of the NAO. It is the counterbalance to the Aleutian low.

Icy

Nice mammatus clouds right now

The march towards summer begins after today. Sun angle season before ya know it.

For what it’s worth, people also like to make predictions (in any arena) so that they can go back later to prove to others that they’re right now and were right then, and smarter than others. (See board, this) .

I happily accept the euro op for the next 6 days.

For up here, It looks like most of the snow fall is Christmas Eve morning.

But… was it measurable if it was a trace?

Reached 40 here at around 10am, currently 36 & sunny

A canonical la nina is a VERY roller coaster ride- more roller coaster than typical climo. So expect tons of model chaos the rest of the winter. Our region is definitely a better place to be than the east or especially south. But just be warned...there's likely plenty of excitement and disappointment ahead.

Also....a canonical la nina is a VERY roller coaster ride- more roller coaster than typical climo. So expect tons of model chaos the rest of the winter.

We take the euro-and OT the entire week.

BOX map

You got it.

This x1000

Well looking forward to severe weather this spring. At least yall already know this winter is cooked. No need to look off the side of the cliff. Just jump and enjoy the warm winter.

From our good friend DT: We have had a really good first half of December but now the second half is not as good. For some it is going to get pretty warm Christmas week. But as I maintained for years here on this Facebook page, on the website, and on my other social media platforms winter like the other seasons has fundamentally shifted because the climate is warming. Since the late 1990s the winter season has really consisted of January February and March. Even back in the good old days in the winters of the 1960s '70s '80s and '90s getting a big snow east of the mountains in December was not a common occurrence because of the ocean water temperatures are still relatively mild. That is even more of an issue over the last 25 years because of the warming climate. The point is that the heart of winter is still yet to come. And please keep in mind that meteorological winter is December 1 through February 28th. The winter solstice which is based upon astronomy has occurred today. Though many may not notice the shifting seasons has nothing to do with just winter. Usually September is a continuation of August and we don't really see the first cool air until October. It has been that way for about 25 years. Usually December is a continuation of November as the research shows that there has been a significant drop off in December snowfall over the Eastern CONUS s since the year 2000. Finally there are signs that we are going to come out of this shitty pattern that we are in - perhaps by the end of the year and we will see what January brings.