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Yeah SW areas will be measuring pollen
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Pre nino summers are often cooler than avg in the Great Lakes.
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Id bet money its not a super nino. But yes, an El Nino is coming
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2026-2027 El Nino
michsnowfreak replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
1916-17, 1917-18, & 1919-20 were very cold winters and 1918-19 & 1920-21 very mild here. Of particular extreme was 1917-18 & 1918-19. The cold 1917-18 was extremely impressive and it likely ranks as one of the conus coldest winters on record (I concentrate on local & regional weather, not the entire conus, so idk the ranking). Then 1918-19 was a mild, snowless winter with a huge influenza pandemic. Newspapers at the time attributed the unusually warm winter weather to helping fuel "The Grippe". -
That was an incredible heat wave... It was also in the 90F range in Eastern 2010 (2012) weekend. Heat in April has a bit of an advantage - which is quite counter intuitive, I'm sure. It's because the soil moisture over the continental expanse is wholesale not yet a seasonal source in adding modulating water vapor to the atmosphere. This latter aspect will help keep temperature side of the T vs TD from getting out of control on .. say June 20th. We're still going observe most heat post Apr/May than during ... but, the advent of the April or May heat, from the OV to upper MA/NE region, is really a separate phenomenon to either CC, or the "standard" warmth that spreads into those areas as we work deeper into summer. This is a nuanced aspect that will likely be conflated with other factors ... improperly... by those that are not aware that this is a valid phenomenon, due to water vapor challenged being timed well with a warm 850 layer type of synoptics. Maybe we could argue that sets up more frequently now? no guess. If we go all the way back over a 100 years, there's been these separate events.
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I remember that. I was 8 years old. I think there were records broken up here too.
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Gonna downslope to normal high today.
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April 11 1929: An intense downpour occurs in Lynd, Minnesota (near Marshall), where 5.27 inches of rain would fall in 24 hours. For Saturday, April 11, 2026 1965 - Severe thunderstorms in the Upper Midwest spawned fifty-one tornadoes killing 256 persons and causing more than 200 million dollars damage. Indiana, Ohio and Michigan were hardest hit in the "Palm Sunday Tornado Outbreak". (David Ludlum) 1987 - Ten days of flooding in the northeastern U.S. finally came to an end. Damage from flooding due to rain and snow melt ran into the billions of dollars. The collapse of the New York State Thruway Bridge over Schoharie Creek claimed ten lives. (Storm Data) 1988 - Sixteen cities in the western U.S., nine in California, reported new record high temperatures for the date. Afternoon highs of 95 degrees at Sacramento CA and 96 degrees at Bakersfield CA were the warmest of record for so early in the season. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Forty-four cities in the south central and eastern U.S. reported new record low temperatures for the date. Lows of 25 degrees at Conway AR, 29 degrees at Dallas/Fort Worth TX, and 22 degrees at Ozark AR, were April records. Lows of 26 degrees at Hot Springs AR and 31 degrees at Shreveport LA equaled April records. (The National Weather Summary) 1990 - While showers produced heavy rain over much of the northeastern U.S., heavy snow blanketed northern Maine, with 13 inches reported at Telos Lake. Strong southwesterly winds accompanying the rain and snow gusted to 68 mph at the Blue Hill Observatory in Massachusetts. Rainfall totals of 1.04 inch at Pittsburgh PA and 1.52 inch at Buffalo NY on the 10th were records for the date. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
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2026-2027 El Nino
michsnowfreak replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I know you have a lot of pent up troll posting to do from us having a cold winter, but honestly this is a perfect example of why one year is never a perfect match. 1996-97 here had an average winter and a cold spring. 2025-26 had a cold winter and a so far warm spring. -
Looks like my seasonal wetland, which only has some shallow wet spots here and there, may not flood and become expansive at all this Spring. Put some larvicide in last week. Easy.
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We grow here now. Frost and freezes are done. Thank you spring and CC!
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2026-2027 El Nino
PhiEaglesfan712 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
There's only been one: 1916-17 (and this was part of a triple la nina, which began in 1915-16 and ended in 1917-18). That was when global temperatures were at a minimum in the post-Industrial Revolution era. Of course, 1916-17 and 1917-18 are some of the coldest CONUS winters on record, and I believe the super la nina had a hand in it. The closest we've come since then were in 1973-74 and 1988-89, and both immediately followed robust el ninos (the super el nino of 1972-73 and double el nino of 1986-88, respectively). Classic cases of "sometimes the strongest el ninos are followed by the strongest la ninas". I feel like if we get a strong/super el nino, this time around it's going to be followed by a strong la nina, like in 1973, 1988, 1998, and 2010. -
The only thing that sucks is we get near freezing tonight up here so I have to play the potted plant shuffle again.
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Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
Mount Joy Snowman replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Low of 52 to go along with a trace of rain. Getting the first round of golf of the year in today. Onward. -
Full leafout by this time next weekend ?
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A week + of 80’s! Installs this weekend abound
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Pool is finally totally free of ice. 44F
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Yeah. Heard it roaring last night. And it continues
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A couple cigarette butts flicked out of car windows and we could have a ditty day.
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Euro is bone dry thru the end of the month.
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ACATT
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April 1976 was well above average in most of New England, and above average in New York, eastern PA, and NJ. This is still Boston's warmest April on record. Although, April 2010's warmth is much more widespread for the Eastern US.
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52 here. Nice morning
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Euro is a torch.
