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HRRR coming in hot. 9” already by midday Sunday.

I think kuchie is just a straight 22:1.

Surface temps are too cold at GSO on HRRR and some others according 12Z sounding at GSO. About 5-degree difference on HRRR and 4 versus NAM 3K.

@so_whats_happening What are your thoughts on the possible SSW/SPV split next month? Do you think we see a 2018 response or something more muted/different?

Has that weird dry spot almost all over Northern Va and MD compared to 6z. Surrounded by heavier stuff in all directions. Strange run but possible

My 21 and 23 year old know nothing different. It’s called a Jebwalk. Should be in the dictionary.

Can we have a degreed Met add a substitute? What's your map for CT. Did you drink too much last night?

DC loses the column between 14-15z, just shy of 0.5" QPF. So, the HRRR is probably a 5-7" event before the sleet.

It must be as weatherbell shows both sleet and snow accumulating for me during the mid-late morning.

UKMET and RGDPS the coldest solutions. Likely on crack. Let's get a couple messenger tics on the big boys starting at 12z

Still all snow by 11AM

9am still heavy snow DC with sleet knocking at door.

Dude I said that yesterday. It’s so dumb.

-10° here this morning. I think DTW low also -10 but unsure yet. Cold spot Ann Arbor hit -21°! This is not my photo, but an incredible shot of a -10° sunrise over the Detroit River in Wyandotte.

That's how i figure totals by projected qpf to ratios for past events that are similar.

Arctic sand cutting ratios right? Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

More sleet than ZR on the HRRR

atest 12z (1/24) HRR has snow between 3AM and 6AM Sunday

I'm not sure that I'd completely characterize it as a "thump", given that the HRRR is 0.05" QPF per hour from 09z to 14z, but if we do score favorable ratios it'll be a nice period.

A photo from back on Jan 24th 2016 just after clearing our driveway.

Maybe sleet/snow mix?

I remember we had back to back big snows during that period. Didn’t realize it was that much.

Wait does anyone know why on the past runs the HRRR continues to accumulate snow past the mixing line moving north? Does it see it as a snow/sleet mix or as the ratio for sleet? I don't think any other model includes sleet calculations with their snowfall output so that seems weird.

Will, we do PBP, not frame by frame