All Activity

Finally a nice morning again. Cool with a breeze and lower humidity.

34F.

Yes, in terms of the fall equinox, fall begins Tuesday. Meteorological fall, which is used for climate data purposes, began on September 1st.

US National Weather Service State College PA Favorites ·17 hours ago · A 5th tornado from July 18, 2026 was confirmed today. The EF1 tornado was on the ground for about a mile in Burnside Township, Centre County, PA where it downed and snapped approximately 200 trees What took so long? Reply US National Weather Service State College PA · · Author Joey Schultz The location played the largest role. The damage path was in very thick forest within the Sproul State Forest and near impossible to access on foot. Figuring out if any damage occurred from the storm and then where it occurred was extremely difficult until new satellite imagery came out. When it does not have a human impact, there will be no specific reports nor quick need to fly a drone to scan endless forest for a possibility of occurrence. Then, we needed to reach out to our partners and find someone who was willing and available to fly a drone to locate the damage path based off what we had from satellite imagery.

Buyer beware from KALY: THAT SAID, GUIDANCE IS NOTORIOUS FOR STRUGGLING WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THESE CLOSED UPPER LOWS IN THE MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE, SO CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW IS QUITE LOW. ADDITIONAL FORECAST CHANGES SHOULD BE EXPECTED OVER THE COMING DAYS.

Yeah, while not impressive at all that's still nice to see. Models were hinting that something like that was possible last week and it is coming to fruition. Aside from them traversing through the warm pool east of Japan. They can also be a catalyst to invigorate an Aleutian low. Not saying this one is any of that but in general. We want to see that. So let's see if we can get anything else to do that moving forward. And maybe we can in early October if that trough in east asia is real because the tropical activity probably will be.

"Deterministic and ensemble guidance continues to hint at the potential for a coastal low pressure system sometime Thursday into Friday. However, there is still a fair amount of uncertainty in the details of the pattern that will influence the track of this low. Some solutions feature a low track closer to southern New England while others well off shore. Pretty low confidence at point, but warrants monitoring as it would bring potential for stronger winds, rough seas for the coastal waters and potentially another round of rainfall.

We're not hitting 70 next week. Amazing. Break out the sweaters!

Euro and icon please.

Yeah. It looks like a few showers, drizzly and boring for a week. I wonder what model is correct lol

And the euro is even drier.

Congrats SW CT again with the rain tomorrow?

1.5” of rain overnight.

Euro and ICON are kind of meh! But the GFS, Euro AI, GFS AI , and EPS are all showing it.. it could be a fun storm

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=CTP&issuedby=CTP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off -- Highlight Changed Discussion -- 515 FXUS61 KCTP 190506 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 106 AM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * No sig changes && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Becoming noticeably less humid through the day today with cooler air settling in for tonight. 2) Rain returning by Sunday, heavy at times. 3) Rainy pattern continues into much of next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Becoming noticeably less humid through the day today with cooler air settling in for tonight. With the cold front now pushing into the southern tier, high clouds are peeling off to the south. However, moisture remains trapped in the boundary layer resulting in widespread stratus and a few areas of fog. Dewpoints range from the upper 60s to the low 70s in these predawn hours. Showers are expected to remain isolated at best. A north breeze with gusts up to 20 mph will advect a cooler and drier air mass, with temps and dewpts in the 40s for central PA by late tonight. Patchy valley fog is possible early Saturday morning. Most, if not all of Saturday will be dry. ------------------------------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 2: Rain returning by Sunday, heavy at times. Periods of potentially heavy rainfall are expected Saturday night into Sunday. Both NAEFS and ECMWF SATs show at least 90th percentile PWs returning to the region, which is supportive of at least a marginal excessive rain signal. A surface low expected to track over the Great Lakes will usher in this moisture and more than enough forcing for widespread precipitation. A few to several hundred J/kg of MUCAPE should support some heavier downpours, but little to no CAPE above the -10C level suggests the lightning threat will be limited. Most likely rainfall amounts with the Sunday system are 0.50-1.50". ------------------------------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 3: Rainy pattern continues into much of next week. PoPs are progged to drop into the 30-40 pct range on Monday as high pressure wedges in from the north. However, the jet stream will remain active and amplified with Pacific disturbances moving across the nation. By Tuesday, most guidance has a slow moving trough in the Ohio Valley advecting warm air above a wedge of cool sfc air in place from the aforementioned high pressure system. This setup may linger for a few days, with up to several inches of rainfall possible through the week. The cold air damming will also result in high temps only in the 50s to low 60s. &&

0z Models are back to being wetter for next week. Coastal is closer to the coast.

-42.37 SOI today. 4th consecutive day <-30 September is -23 to date.