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Kind of shocked we don't have a general thunder area for Wednesday. I still think south of the Pike has chance for storms during the day and there would be a threat for strong/severe with any storms

Solar-nape season ends in 4 weeks.

Good disco from Marsh at SPC in the day 4-8 range Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0405 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... All ensemble guidance suites are in broad agreement that the central US ridge will once again build westward in response to the development of a eastern North America long-wave trough during the forecast period. However, significant differences exist within and between ensembles regarding the timing and exact nature of this transition. At the start of the forecast period, a frontal boundary will be pushing south and west in the wake of a strong short-wave trough that moved across New England in the prior days. The trend over the past 48 hours is for this front to push farther south and west, bringing a continental dry airmass into New England and portions of the Mid-Atlantic. For example, several days ago ensemble guidance was in good agreement that the front would be draped across the Mid-Atlantic on Friday. Many, but not all, of the recent runs now push the front south into southern Virginia and northern North Carolina. This results in significant uncertainty regarding the potential severe weather environment on Friday (Day 5) across the Mid-Atlantic. For example, the GEFS mean temperature for Washington D.C. is 93F on Friday afternoon, while the EPS mean temperature is 102F. However, both ensembles have dewpoint temperatures in the 50Fs. Given the increasing uncertainty as to the location of the surface boundary on Friday and the overall quality of the severe weather environment, unconditional 15% severe probabilities for Friday are removed with this forecast. It is possible that severe probabilities may be reintroduced in later outlooks should it become apparent that the surface boundary washes out earlier than expected and quality low-level moisture is able to return sooner. That said, the front should begin to dissipate by Saturday in response to a mid-level trough digging southeast across the Great Lakes. This will allow rich boundary-layer moisture to advect northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. This increase in boundary-layer moisture and strong diurnal heating will allow for afternoon MUCAPE values between 1000-2000 J/kg, perhaps locally higher on Saturday and into Sunday. This unstable and vertically sheared environment will be ripe for thunderstorm/severe thunderstorm development ahead of any digging mid-level trough. However, as alluded to previously, the timing, magnitude, and number of these troughs is highly variable within the ensemble guidance, leading to too little confidence to pinpoint where and when unconditional severe probabilities should be added. As confidence in the timing, track, and strength of these embedded troughs becomes clear, severe probabilities will likely be needed somewhere across the region stretching from the Upper Midwest southeast into the Mid-Atlantic for one or more days. ..Marsh.. 07/13/2026

No, I do not want the bolded from this mornings LWX AFD - the 100s that is KEY MESSAGE 2...Forecast confidence decreases substantially late this week into the upcoming weekend, but the potential is there for both extreme heat and severe thunderstorms. Model guidance is in reasonably good agreement that the longwave pattern across the CONUS late this week into the upcoming weekend will feature troughing across the Pacific NW, ridging over the center of the country, and then troughing downstream across New England. Such a pattern will place us in NW`ly flow aloft. However, there`s considerable disagreement regarding the placement of individual shortwaves and their associated sfc fronts throughout that period. As a result, there`s a highly atypical amount of forecast spread for this time of year during that time window. Ensemble guidance has members showing highs anywhere from the upper 70s to the mid 100s each day Fri through Sun, with above average spread on Thu as well (mid 80s to mid 100s). So depending on which solution verifies, we could have anywhere from well below normal temps to record highs each day. Dry conditions are expected on Thu, but chances for storms start to increase for Fri, Sat, and Sun. Depending on how the pattern evolves, and which side of the frontal boundary we end up on, there could be a potential threat for severe thunderstorms. The forecast temp spread illustrates the unseasonable amount of baroclinicity that will be present, which should translate into unseasonably strong wind fields aloft as well. If we end up on the warm, unstable side of the boundary, the threat would likely be there for severe thunderstorms, with MCSs possible in NW`ly flow aloft. SPC currently has much of the forecast area highlighted in a 15 percent contour for severe thunderstorms on Fri, and WxNext2 AI guidance highlights additional threats for severe thunderstorms on both Sat and Sun. We`ll need to monitor trends over the course of the week, since this is a very conditional threat at the moment, given the atypically high amount of forecast uncertainty.

shit, that is @weatherwiz daily attire (in the summer)

Wow, SPC already in enhanced up in NNE

I feel like once you get into super Nino status that stronger might even be better here just because there should have a tremendous amount of moisture streaming into the country. Some of that is bound to try to make its way up this way like it did in 2015-2016. I guess if we have a record setting Nino then it’s something we’ve never experienced so technically there isn’t even an analog.

The NBM shows WFO MQT reaching 99 degrees, which would place today in a 4-way tie for the all-time record (period of record since 1961). If downsloping can get the shoreline to 100 degrees, it will be only the 27th time 100 degrees has been recorded in the City of Marquette since the 1860s (including times with less reliable instrumentation and siting). The Ironwood WWTP site has not recorded a 100 degree temperature since the 1940s, while the Iron Mountain WWTP site has only reached 100 3 times since the 1940s (the IMT ASOS has never recorded 100 degrees F since it was installed in 1996). All of this to say, the level of heat today will likely (50+%) be on the level that most Yoopers would have to leave the UP to experience in their lifetimes. Overnight lows tonight only look to fall to the low to mid 70s, providing little relief for those without air conditioning.

All-time record highs with this developing record 600 dm ridge. The 850 mb plume is forecast to set all-time warmest 850mb temperatures from Ontario into the Northeast. But the models have the 850 mb temperatures peaking at night. So they actually begin coming down a bit during Wednesday afternoon. The Euro and GFS both have 102°-104° at the warmest spots across the region Wednesday. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT 506 PM MDT SUN JUL 12 2026 ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY... HERE IS A SUMMARY OF DAILY RECORDS AND ALL-TIME RECORDS TIED OR BROKEN SO FAR TODAY, SUNDAY, JULY 12TH. DAILY RECORDS BROKEN SITE HIGH TEMP PREVIOUS RECORD PERIOD OF RECORD BEGINS BILLINGS 111 107 (2002) 1934 LIVINGSTON 105 103 (2002) 1948 MILES CITY 115 104 (1954) 1937 SHERIDAN 109 104 (2002) 1907 BAKER 110 103 (2006) 1998 ALL-TIME RECORDS TIED OR BROKEN SITE HIGH TEMP PREVIOUS ALL-TIME RECORD PERIOD OF RECORD BEGINS BILLINGS 111 108 (7/14/2002) 1934 LIVINGSTON 105 105 (8/5/1961) 1948 MILES CITY 115 111 (6/26/2012) 1937 SHERIDAN 109 107 (7/27/2021) 1907 BAKER 110 109 (7/25/2024) 1998 AN UPDATED SUMMARY OF DAILY AND ALL-TIME RECORDS WILL BE SENT AT THE END OF THE DAY IF NEEDED.

Had another good rain overnight, bringing the total to 4.46in. Like John said, when it rains, it just pulses up and keeps going. Whether it’s storms or just rain, it keeps on regenerating over the areas it rains on. A fantastic way to help alleviate the drought. I’m not sure it will fill the lakes up the rest of the way to their summer pool level, but it is sure beginning to make a difference.

MCS type look down this way. They tend to hold on longer than guidance and are poorly modeled (trajectory, intensity) at very short lead times if they get going. Kind of a mind of its own type deal… Would expect a big fizzle here on the seacoast but with northerly flow, anticipating at least some hefty downpours, which would be nice—could use the rain.

Cloudy, dry and 65° but the smoke from the western fires is noticeable. AQI in the high 60s isn't horrible but it's enough to see and feel.

Interesting...I got down to 62 all the way down here.

I was thinking the same thing. I remember as a kid strobe light thunderstorms in the middle of the night. You'd wake up to pouring rain and continues flashing and loud thunder. I honestly can't remember the last time that happened.

62 this morning. Refreshing.

Maybe it is just an 'older man' reminiscing about younger days, but I swear we used to get the 'leftovers' from big midwestern (IL/IN/MO/KY/OH) storms to swing thru here from the W or NW late overnight into the early morning hours.

The stronger ridges and weaker troughs are likely playing a huge role. If you look at SLP, it’s less muted. However, still some subtle differences between the events.

You aren't looking at the chart I posted. Per your table the Chesco COOPs and the Philadelphia Airport both averaged 54.1 between 1942-44. After 1945 the large cooling moves started in the Chesco COOPs. By the early 1970s the COOPs were almost as cool as ABE. Clearly shown in the chart I posted above. If you don't correct for station moves, the raw COOP data is unusable for climate purposes in this post-war period. Not sure why this is so hard for you to accept. The Coatesville stations below, 1930-1945 and 1949+ are very different. One is much cooler than the other and the local raw data shows it. You can't treat these two sites as the same station, an adjustment is needed. That's why NCEI gets the right answer for Chesco and you don't.

64 degrees this morning!

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 204 AM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026 PAZ004>006-010>012-018-019-027-028-037-041-042-045-046-049>053- 056>059-140700- /O.NEW.KCTP.HT.Y.0004.260714T1500Z-260715T0000Z/ Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Northern Centre- Southern Centre-Mifflin-Juniata-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan- Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour- Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon- Including the cities of St. Marys, Laporte, Emporium, Wellsboro, Pottsville, Warren, Berwick, Hershey, Shamokin, Ridgway, Lewistown, Mansfield, Trout Run, Danville, Mifflintown, Sunbury, Lock Haven, Williamsport, Harrisburg, Lebanon, Renovo, Selinsgrove, Bloomsburg, State College, Philipsburg, Lewisburg, Coudersport, Newport, and Bradford 204 AM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026 ...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY... * WHAT...Heat index values of 96 to 103 degrees expected. * WHERE...A portion of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat illnesses. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The Heat Advisory may need to be extended into Wednesday for a portion of central Pennsylvania as another hot day is looking increasingly likely. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Drink plenty of fluids, stay out of the sun, and stay in an air-conditioned room. Check up on relatives and neighbors, and provide pets with adequate water and shelter from the sun. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Review heat safety and preparedness information at weather.gov/safety/heat. If you do not have air conditioning in your home or lack shelter, you can call 211 or visit pa211.org for assistance locating appropriate shelter from the heat. && $$

Over 4” at the farm in Louisburg since yesterday and still pouring

@WxWatcher007 home brew next weekend???

0.5” Friday night. 1.6” last night. Total for July so far: 7.3 “ The Falls Lake watershed has been the place to be the last two months.

I realize that and was talking more generally about the DJF means. 1997-1998 had the strongest connection between the Aleutian low and the low across the Southern Tier of the CONUS. There is always going to be variability from month to month and season to season between different super El Ninos. By 2015-2016 the Aleutian low was weaker along with the low in the Southeast even with the strong +PDO. 2023-2024 also had a weaker Aleutian low that split into two pieces. So the low across the Southeast was weaker than 1997-1998 also in the means. It’s also possible that the warming climate leading stronger and more extensive ridges and weaker troughs is playing a role also. The chart below shows the rising 500mb heights over North America and the adjacent oceans during DJF.