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  2. I will say as a proud member of the dew crew that those few days when that wildfire smoke mixed with haze from Canada overtook us, the air had to be the most soupy and stagnant it’s been all season, at least around here. I remember going outside on one of those days to work on the garden and my face was drenched with sweat after just 15 minutes. Maybe we can squeak out one or two more stretches of full body stankness before the seasons through.
  3. Tomorrow looks more promising for widespread showers/storms.
  4. Long term, Denver averages 2" in July and 1.7" in August. So I'd say for this area anyway, on average it peaks second half of July and is often basically over by second half of August. That being said, there have been many times where August has been much wetter than July (2022 is the only real recent example, but quite a few further back). We are badly due for a very wet August for the region...the last one was 2008. Of course, we had the wettest September and month ever in 2013, which was due to unusually late monsoonal activity.
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    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

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  7. Dew has dropped to 72 here now. Just stepped out and it's amazing how much better a 72 degree dew feels compared to an 82 degree dew.
  8. The evening cams don't fully sort out the details, but if we look for some modest consensus, the morning MCS threat for most of us has decreased a lot. And the severe threat ramps up quickly after lunch. Even if some cloud cover reduces the heating, I don't think that's a big deal unless we stay really cool. Full heating is not critical to this event, because we have forcing and good shear. Some solutions still screw us in terms of coverage and rainfall, but again, I'm looking for some sort of consensus, and the screw outcomes are on the table but seemingly less likely. Oh, and there is case to be made for including a corridor bounding roughly Rocky Mount, NC to Harrisburg to Trenton and all points to the east with a tornado threat (5%). SPC might keep our local area in a 2, but a 5 would be justifiable, as some solutions keep the sfc low just to our west or northwest with modestly increasing low level flow during the afternoon beneath strengthening west-northwest mid-level flow..
  9. 2% tornado risks in our area this year are the scariest things known to man, this is like the 4th time its happened.
  10. It probably happens a lot more often. All I know is that there was no weathergami today.
  11. Looks like it is heading right for you. HRRR still doesn’t have it.
  12. Beautiful day in Western Maryland with temps in the upper 70s/low 80s. I can see why people come up here in the summer! New Germany State Park Last bit of sun before it was hidden by the clouds over Deep Creek Lake
  13. Hopefully some big time storms tomorrow. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
  14. Yeah last Winter we had something like the 4th longest streak since the 1800s where Baltimore had >6" on the ground (22 days or something). I love that - 8" of snow and 3" of ice on top there for almost a whole month of the Winter! That storm was really anomalous to the overall pattern last Winter. I'm glad it was timed at the beginning of the pattern.
  15. IMO we ain’t seen nothing yet. Once this massive WWB and DWKW do their dirty work over the next month or so, I think we pop +12C subsurface anomalies in the EPAC
  16. Gonna setup a gravy train further east at the end of jts run. That depiction makes sense overall on HRRR.
  17. Yeah it was fairly localized
  18. Yes we can; it's gong to be positive. I'll bet you $500 right now- There is absolutely zero doubt in my mind. The PDO is another story, as that is much more nebulous.
  19. Had some incredible flooding from the rains in Bergen County near where my son lives. Trees down too.
  20. I hope so too for a good light show .
  21. I'm in north Edison, we got some heavy rain but no microburst. This might have been south Edison fwiw. Actually never mind that's north Edison, near the taco bell on Inman. I'm shocked i live maybe 1.5 miles from there and the wind wasn't that bad. Must have been very localized lol
  22. Another MCS is rolling this way. MRX isn't sure if it will make it but it looks way healthier than hi res models keep showing it after a few hours. I suspect it's going to make it.
  23. I only follow a few rather grounded mets on social media. But that's just it, the pattern has it and the mountains are doing well, just not much getting over the hills.
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