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GFS pretty solid up here. Puts out 3-5" of high ratio stuff.

After about 5 days of AN/much AN temps, that -EPO takes us back to NN or below by Jan 12.

Weekend slider is trending closer to something, though temps are really iffy.

If the official observation today ends up being at least 3”, it’ll be just the second December with 4 days of 3+ inches of snow (the other was 1960, which was part of a 76” winter). If we can get to 3.5”, it’ll be the first time we’ve had 4 days of 3.5” on December.

While everyone went doom and gloom yesterday the 00z EPS pumps a big Alaskan ridge by Jan 10-15 and tries to get the STJ active with some split flow.

December IMBY: Melted: 3.24" Snowfall: 17.0" Precipitation Total for 2025: 42.38 4" at the stake this morning.

He's been honking that 1985 thing for seemingly weeks now. Hopefully he scores a coup.

Fwiw pretty cool we are having an actual winter. Now we just need a bigger event eventually.

Where I sit in Sylvania, I believe we’re affected by subtle orographic descent off the glacial ridge to our northwest. I’ve seen it too many times to ignore—it often produces a noticeable drying effect, especially when systems approach from the NW.

It's your weather, you can customize it the way you want it.

Another weathergami on Monday:

Take em with a grain of salt…until under 5 days.

It's not an outright prerequisite but I like your overall approach here... What it does is changes the species. You go from Miller-A atmospheres to NJ Model Lows, which these latter kind "could be" considered Miller-B but they are not necessarily so. Either way, NJ Model low or Miller-B stressed and shredded... they move right along. The problem with Miller-B's in a fast atmosphere, the translation of the entire wave space moves along too fast and the "transfer" ( which is bs ..it's not a transfer in reality ) isn't given enough time for the new low to affect before it's expelled along the flow. Also, the speed doesn't allow the jet cross-sections to set up as proficiently either, and that offset the integrity of the new low that way. So both end up looking more sheary and shreddy and the Miller-B is challenged. NJ Model lows are systems where despite the fast flow enough amplitude occurs back west far enough to activate cyclogenesis nearing the coast... say over ~ WV ...When the nose of the jet/diffluence aloft approaches the natively intense thermal packing/+Baroclinicity near the Del Marva, a low detonates very quickly.. Sometimes bombing as she blossom out just under L.I. These clip the I-95 corridor from perhaps PHL on up to PWM. Albany may have dim sun while HFD-BOS has a 3 hour pulse of S+ with lightning and thunder. The best version of these were back in 1980s, then again around 1996. But they move really quick. 6 to 9 hours tops usually for totality.

Yes, I know JB, yada yada and he definitely has his flaws ... an interesting reminder, however, not to take the models verbatim. https://x.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/2006385108584910948

Ray was never enthused. Smart man.

Mansfield is really tracking 81-82 very closely. https://matthewparrilla.com/mansfield-stake/ I have no idea how to get the image to copy or link.

Can we lower the winds to 20ish? If so, sold!

It's concerning too because it is rare to have a cold, wintry February or March during La Nina's as olaf's post shows. Even with a -NAO. If we keep delaying the cold coming to the SE it may never come at all. All I would like to see is a week or 2 period of a decent pattern with cold and an active STJ.

Good thing we're a patient bunch. 27F

December Precipitation at my location: Melted: 3.88" Snowfall: 13.1" Precipitation total for 2025: 43.43". Not a bad total just that is was very lean rainfall wise during the time of year that it was needed most. In addition there were wetter periods followed by long periods with little precipitation. Healthy and Happy New Year to all.

It seems to deliver big bombs elsewhere though…no problem. We’ll get one before the winter is over…long way to go. We’ll take the nickels in the meantime.

Looks like the 12z’s are the most importent runs of 2025.

December Precipitation at my location: Melted: 3.88" Snowfall: 13.1" Precipitation total for 2025: 43.43". Not a bad total just that is was very lean rainfall wise during the time of year that it was needed most. In addition there were wetter periods followed by long periods with little precipitation. Healthy and Happy New Year to all.

We do not disagree there.

Agreed….