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  2. Golf757075
    Im wondering if the pdo stays negative will it make a difference or do we want to see it positive for the winter to have a better chance at colder outcomes? Just a question
  3. Picard
    3.4" and still counting. I'm currently under my third heavy thunderstorm of the day with rain and thunder since 2 pm. Pretty wild day.
  4. vortex95
    Something that *really* stands out for this event and why I think 10"+ is likely in some spots. Let's see if @CoastalWx and @WxWiz know this excessive rainfall rule of thumb! CAPE for a nor'easter is outstanding, esp. for New England. The entire time for much of cntrl and srn New England, the values are 500-1000. These are *ideal* values for maxing rainfall rates and droplet collision/coalescence for high rainfall efficiency. Warm rain process rule. The CAPE provides additional lift on top of the synoptic-scale lift, but it is not too strong as to push a lot of drops above the freezing layer or at least above -40 C where spontaneous freezing occurs. So look out! Also, w/ CAPE present, it is going to be windier, esp. inland, b/c of good mixing of the BL. And likely a lot tstm activity for a Nor'easter. This happened on Oct 23-24, 2014. A lot of tstms for a Nor'easter and I recall it was windy from the NE even before the rain moved in b/c BL mixing was excellent. Up to 6" of rain from this event (does CoastalWx recall it?).
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    QBO is a great forecasting tool....I've been killing it the past couple years integrating the QBO with solar cycle.
  6. ThePhotoGuy
    Seems that the Riviera Beach/Pasadena area got hit hard again (same area as 10 days ago). Reports of a lot of trees and wires down. It looked like the power was out at my house for a few hours.
  7. Prismshine Productions
    Parking lot flooded at work for a bit earlier Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk
  8. pazzo83
    pretty bad damage just to my south in Cathedral Heights over to Cleveland Park and further east in to Petworth. Ian thinks it's a microburst. About 1" here - finally some good rain. I was downtown running when it hit - minor street flooding.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    I understand all of that....and I have tried to explain to you that you are taking that composite far too literally....it's not a forecast composite....it does't even incorporate the extra tropical Pacific. It's literally just a composite derived from solar, QBO and ENSO data, as that is how I assess the polar fields.
  10. Rhino16
    It can be impossible to see tornadoes when they are rain wrapped during the day, and it’s especially hard at night. We don’t have a ton of storm chasers constantly out watching around here with trees and terrain. If the rule were to wait for the radar to show it’s picking up debris, then it’s already doing damage and by the time the radar has actually scanned it, and the warning is issued, someone may have had no warning and potentially has been injured or worse. I don’t see why it’s an issue to go to safety and come back uninjured and resume life as normal. I also don’t know what technology we have if any currently that can change the need for caution besides maybe radar improvements which I hope are coming like phased array.
  11. tiger_deF
    I’m over it. It feels like there was a better chance of getting lightning from one of the blizzards last winter out east than this pithy severe season. Bring on the Fall!
  12. zwyts
    not yet. probably November
  13. BoulderWX
    Hardest rain of the day in Morristown and cell looks to be back building a bit.
  14. NorthHillsWx
    Duke outage map confirms it, 17k out in this area alone. This is telling: https://outagemap.duke-energy.com/#/current-outages/ncsc
  15. SI Mailman
    Pouring here in North Edison
  16. steve392
    Sussex county been the jackpot all day along with orange and rockland counties.
  17. The Dude
    Montgomery and Frederick County were upgraded on July 18.
  18. winterwx21
    The torrential downpour lasted only 8 minutes, but at least it got me to 0.33" for the day now. So at least things got a watering and it wasn't a complete bust.
  19. NorthHillsWx
    Absolutely one of the worst storms I can remember living in the Raleigh area for most of my 37 years. Powers out for half the neighborhood including the street behind me, we lost power for several short durations, but the wind In the last cell that came through made it sound like a hurricane. It was a ton of lightning at the beginning but all the flashes with the final cell were transformers blowing. There’s a big tree in the power lines one street over and I’m sure there are plenty down in this area. Never saw any hail but it sounded like it was mixed in against the windows. Anyone else go through that final cell and have same experience? I was going to call this a dud besides the rainfall until that came through. Picked up 1.02” here which brings the MTD to a shocking 14.49”
  20. cbmclean
    Any idea what is the all-time wettest month?
  21. cbmclean
    Rain, thunder, lightning, the works.
  22. osfan24
    Drove home from OC this evening and it was pretty fierce around Cambridge. Extremely heavy rain, lots of lightning and quite gusty.
  23. wxeyeNH
    2 rounds of showers/thundershowers now through. One earlier and one more recent. Total .86" so far. Looks like the heaviest rainfall for storm totals will be SW of me. I will be happy if we end up 1-2".
  24. WxUSAF
    I said they needed to go 6-3 in the 9 games before the deadline. 2-3 so far
  25. jm1220
    We’ll see how congealed the storms over eastern NJ are when they get here. Models have a quick transit east of the city. If they stay congealed we’ll at least get a quick half to 1”. If not we might barely get the ground wet. Tomorrow we probably get instability showers under the upper low.
  26. winterwx21
    Coming down in buckets. A little wind and lightning with this too.
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