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2026-2027 Super El Nino
snowman19 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
He’s from Philly, so yes. I would love for him to let us know which super El Niño winters (Dec-Mar) since 1970 were cold in the PHL-NYC-BOS corridor. Strong doesn’t count. I’ll wait…. -
Its gross outside.
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E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2026 Obs/Discussion
Birds~69 replied to PhiEaglesfan712's topic in Philadelphia Region
79F/DP 71F at 9:40am Another sign Fall is on the way is someone had lawn chairs down by the curb for trash pick up. Probably old/broke and they will pick up new ones on clearance in a few weeks for next year. Smart move. Anyhow, we need some refreshing air (DP 50s)... -
Everything "feels" juiced today. At least for heavy rain. Was driving from Odenton back to my folk's house in Colesville and it started lightly raining and I wasn't even under any returns on the LWX radar.
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2026-2027 Super El Nino
GaWx replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I assume you’re referring specifically to the NE US as the first 3 winters weren’t warm in the SE. They were pretty close to normal there. -
Yep, a completely different world up there. Glad you had a great trip, as someone else said, just gotta keep a watch out for the 'sliders' on the ground and whatnot.
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I just read where Mt. Airy East just got hammered yesterday. Radar estimates of over 10 inches.
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2026-2027 Super El Nino
snowman19 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Which super El Niños were cold winters (Dec-Mar)? 72-73: warm, 82-83: warm, 97-98: warm, 15-16: warm -
About a tenth overnight, about that much since the 7 am report. MUGGY, MUGGY, MUGGY! 71.2/70.0 currently with light rain at 9:30 am.
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2026 Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm General Discussion
SnowenOutThere replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
The 12z sounding from IAD seems pretty juiced. Nearly saturated atmosphere all the way up. I think the most interesting thing is how convective temp is only 81 degrees.- 1,693 replies
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2026-2027 Super El Nino
PhiEaglesfan712 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Yeah, I will always point out that the coldest winter CONUS in the 21st century was during a strong la nina. Strong/super el ninos generally mean warmth, but not always. It's too early to tell whether this upcoming winter is going to be warm, but if the models are still showing a cold signal in September, then people need to accept that it will probably be colder (and possibly snowier) winter. -
2026-2027 Super El Nino
bluewave replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
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Central PA Summer 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
Mount Joy Snowman replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Low of only 73 to go along with .01” of rain. -
2026-2027 Super El Nino
bluewave replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
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True. It basically never has anything prior to an event. It certainly feels juicy out here.
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Light rain at the little Bennett trailhead (biked a different loop this time). Perfectly timed…started to rain right at the last stretch. Humidity is thick…the atmosphere no longer wants this area to be in a drought.
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2026-2027 Super El Nino
GaWx replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Amazingly, the very next CFSv2 run of AAM (0Z on 8/2/26) is even more extreme overall than the posted prior run making it the most extreme I’ve ever seen although this one never quite gets all 4 at 4+ simultaneously (so the first week and last few days are only parts not more extreme): this one already has two at 4+ at day 20! @snowman19 -
Isn't it retiring soon for the RRFS?
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Picked up 1.02 overnight
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Augdewst 2026: Summer's Last Stand
CoastalWx replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
Congrats on a soaker. -
jlauderdal started following Augdewst 2026: Summer's Last Stand
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2026-2027 Super El Nino
mitchnick replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Oh, the "not me, it's you" defense. Lol If you call trying to get to the bottom line of a post/position an attack, I can't help you. But the bottom line is, you haven't denied my synopsis of your post/position because it's accurate. Which is fine. You can take whatever position you want. But clarity matters, that's all. -
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Maybe it’s correct but the NAM has been awful this warm season
