All Activity

Hi Mike I did of course supply all of the above information to Claude to ensure we got a useful result! As you know homogenization remains nothing more then a hypothesis-driven statistical correction, it is of course not a measurement. Pairwise algorithms like PHA infer breakpoints from neighbor differences, and when 44 of 51 Berkeley breakpoints at Chesco stations are a code 4 meaning empirically detected, with absolutely no metadata backing, that's an algorithm asserting station changes that are clearly not able to be documented. That is a legitimate target for scrutiny, it is not fringe skepticism. My finding that the adjustment series itself carries a significant linear time trend (r² 0.34–0.67) is the greatest point I have — a correction for discrete, random station artifacts shouldn't behave like a smooth ramp as these adjustments do!

That's a long way off to determine anything weather wise. Even with a crystal ball. Tbizz has canceled many a vacation on speculation. Never seems to work out as he planned.

We would be coming home on Tuesday. We have a place up there so I avoid Sunday afternoon or holiday traffic like the plague.

Just my little contribution but the traffic that weekend (Labor Day) up there can be insane

Is that your yard or a Garden Center?

Yes, the criticism has been rife. Most armchair ppl were calling it out b/c of what KLWX radar showed. They failed to account for TBWI radar! Many of these kind of QLCS spin-ups are low-level, and if the radar is not close (say within 30 mi), it can overshoot the solid low-level rotation. QLCS tors are *far* more common than once thought. They account for 20% of all tors now.

I don't think I have done this before, but I need a little help. I got a choice of two weekends to take some time off and make them long. I can do both but my significant other is trying to schedule something. Location is a little north of Bangor Maine. Its either the weekend before Labor day or labor day weekend. Right now the weekend before looks like a washed out mess. Decision time is Friday of this week. I think I am going to roll the dice and go with Labor Day. Anyone want to share their crystal ball?

Wow, what a find. Absolutely the quietest place I’ve ever been. Dead silent at night. I recommend.

NWS confirmed tornado Monday afternoon near Dundalk. EF0. All those poor armchair Mets from Twitter saying the TOR warning was wrong

Missed the core of that cell by about a mile or two..decent outflow gusts, thats about it. As its departing SE..

How will tonight screw everyone except W and SW CT?

Best time to travel in Alaska is in September just after labor day. No mosquitos!

Can @weatherwiz see the CB from his place??? Clear as a bell to the N! No warning on this? Strong hail core. White VIL on Radarscope means svr almost for sure. Obviously a supercell, and 90% of all supercells produce some form of svr wx.

Nice supercell in S VT

Not saying its gonna go down like this (wrt HL blocking), but the last time it developed early in winter and became a sustained feature was 2009-10. Started as a Scandi h5 ridge then evolved into a legit west-based -NAO. We know what happened from there.

Strangely comfortable today 86F/53%, light breeze from the North We've been missing the rain lately, just another half inch of rain last weekend, bringing August to 1.0".

Very few perfectly clear areas that did not have smoke or clouds muddying the signal, but yes! Federalsburg on the eastern shore was about the best.

Did any of the mesonet sites capture a dip in solar radiation?

Looks like this would be an off the scale WWB over the next couple of days according to the 12z GEFS. Has another big one later in the month too.

Photo of the eclipse today from College Park by Dr. Ross Salawich, a professor in Atmospheric Sciences Department here at UMD.

Was surprised to see the TWC app calling for 1 to 2 inches, locally heavy rain for North NJ into Hudson Valley yet NWS said a quarter to half inch. How are short range models looking? no alerts to TS or flood watch by NWS

It's a definite signal. There is some disagreement on decaying, as it looks like the storms actually originate during the late evening hours over northern Virginia and then move east.

If we get any hurricanes out of the Pineapple Express of waves coming off of Africa, potential Dolly will likely end up being a sacrificial lamb to allow them to flourish