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I have resigned myself to this winter being an interesting vibration for sure. I don't care if it's 70 for Christmas... just please don't let us transition to that straight out of the only wintry period that really delivers of the entire season. No issues if it stays 65 the entire winter, just not the bait and switch. Watch, this year we're gonna get 30" on the 22nd and it'll vanish in two days...
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Hopefully that inevitable stretch in Sept doesn’t feature the same dewpoints. I think this most recent stretch of mid to upper 90s has felt much worse than our hottest timeframe around the 4th. It was over 100 then, but at least the humidity wasn’t as high.
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E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2026 Obs/Discussion
The Iceman replied to PhiEaglesfan712's topic in Philadelphia Region
5% TOR for extreme SE PA/S NJ/DE. Meso models this morning really liking this area for both strong storms and flash flooding. 06z 3K NAM and 12z HRRR are both nasty later on. NAM with a supercell threat while the HRRR is showing a huge QLCS for this evening. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2026082006/nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_14.png https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2026082012/hrrr_ref_frzn_neus_12.png -
Suns coming out in Charlestown so let’s see how this goes. HRRR been getting more robust each run.
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Someone said it was moving south?
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lol sounds about right.
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
mitchnick replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
You haven't visited the Mid Atlantic lately, have you? -
The first 20 days of August have been the warmest on record globally on the ERA-5 dataset. Powered by fossil fuel-driven climate change and an ongoing strong El Niño, 2026 has now set 11 consecutive records.
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Augdewst 2026: Summer's Last Stand
ineedsnow replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
HRRR bumping north each run again. Maybe some.in CT get lucky -
2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season
olafminesaw replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Tropical Headquarters
Last night's Euro picked this up as well -
2026 Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm General Discussion
JenkinsJinkies replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
Translation you have a flight at 1:14.- 2,015 replies
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wow that is a lot of rain
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Augdewst 2026: Summer's Last Stand
dendrite replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
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2026 Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm General Discussion
midatlanticweather replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
Well here in Purcellville we may get a warning... and have it dropped as downslope of the Blue Ridge/Mount Weather (probably some Government experiment, but keep that a secret) splits it and then reforms exactly like you said!- 2,015 replies
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It will clear off at 12:52pm and be sunny for exactly one hour and 22 min. That will give enough time for one cell to form near Winchester to miss east coast npz and give a severe warning to leesburgtownville up to Frederick. Then a dc split will happen with one red box over laurel for broad rotation on radar
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Occasional Thoughts on Climate Change
Typhoon Tip replied to donsutherland1's topic in Climate Change
I think they got that wrong... The expansion of the Universe may only look entropic as the final consequence by our human limited observation/understanding, thus lack of vision. It's entirely possible, admittedly mere conjecture, that the expansion won't in fact stretch apart all actions until even the excitations of the quantum scale are forced to smooth to nothing. Imagine a tarp with wrinkles, and as we pull outward in all directions the expansion naturally forces it to flatten. That's cold entropic hell finish. What could really be happening is that the Universe is expanding because there is always an insertion of new excitation into the volume, happening at a faster rate than the existing one's cancel out. In which case, there are two implications that are interesting. One, Universe might necessarily be expanding to make room for the addition. Two, the amount of entropy is thus only increasing in the local scale, but is actually equal to the emergence of new excitation at the edge/boundary/whole volume of the Universe - such that in total, entropy is not actually increasing. -
I feel like your sentiment will age like milk.
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Today shouldnt be as bad as this years great Aunt 1997 1997: One of the worst floods in history for parts of southern New Jersey occurred as heavy thunderstorms dumped torrential rain from Delaware into southeastern New Jersey. 11.12 inches of rain at Atlantic City, NJ shattered their record precipitation for the date and for any single date. The rains brought the total for the month to 15.74 inches which broke the old monthly record set in 1967. At the marina in Atlantic City, just 10 miles from the airport, only 2.60 inches fell. 3.17 inches of rain fell in one hour at the airport. The airport and almost every road in the area were closed. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) https://www.nytimes.com/1997/08/22/nyregion/fast-moving-storms-flood-slice-of-southern-new-jersey.html https://nj.gov/infobank/circular/eow73.htm https://www.deseret.com/1997/8/22/19329753/n-j-towns-are-under-water-after-131-2-inches-of-rainfall/
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Morning clouds and rain always bodes well for severe later
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Central PA Summer 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
Superstorm replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Great August temps! . -
Augdewst 2026: Summer's Last Stand
Lava Rock replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
so goes the wknd. -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
We always talk about a lag with respect to ENSO....this may be a case where that logic can be applied on a grander scale....yea, yea....record coupling in the tropics, I get it...but we don't live there. -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Yea, I'm with you on feeling as though the old regime isn't entirely washed out, even though it may appear as though it should be. -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Good points.
