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8/-2

GFS and Euro have another snow chance in 6 days. Right now looks best in central VA

I think the boom/bust potential is a little less in the triad, still feel like 4-7" is really pretty likely. The boom bust potential in Raleigh is much higher where I wouldn't be surprised if 2" feel or if a foot fell

I realized that it had a bit of a longer event so attached is the 48hrs precip maps which show additional qpf up north and west.

Big improvements in short range models. Let’s see if that continues at 12z. They could be on to something

Could be wrong but it looks ahead of schedule. .

Wind

They did have the caveat of locally 10 inches plus but the truth is confidence is pretty low right up until game time so at this point anything can happen.

People get old.

RRFS jumped north. 11-14 on southside. Lots closer to RIC

Going to be an interesting storm! Can definitely see with the updated guidance the boom and bust potential.

Gfs just came south and weaker for the 5th like the euro.

It seems like they just make things more difficult for the general population. It’s like when they simplified winter weather headlines. Now, a winter weather advisory can mean anything from 5 inches of snow to a little bit of freezing drizzle to .2 inches of ice or anything in between. Also, why does a winter storm watch precede an ice storm warning? Why not just have an ice storm watch? For the general public, I think the headline should tell you what to expect and not make you guess or dig deeper to figure out what a winter weather advisory means on a particular day.

Maybe the cape still needs to watch.

Warnings up for the Triad and they dropped 1 inch from the prior watch, now 4-7", which given the overnight model runs is probably the most prudent approach. You have to figure someone in ENC from Little Washington up to Elizabethton is going to jackpot on this. Gianna is on her way!

Overnight runs have been very kind to the Triangle. Showing a lot more moisture now than it was

Kids these days with their Kuchera and what not, I'm going with old school Cobb and 06z NAM for 4.5 inches at TYS for this one.

Pics of the glacial conditions… in Seaside Park (my parents). To clear their driveway I’ve had to, no joke, use a metal framing hammer with a pointed end bit by bit and a metal shovel. This is ONLY the accreting ice that had fallen the last 4-6 hours of the storm, I had cleared away the 6ish inches of snow that fell first during the storm. This is wild. I’m sore. Salt has been effectively useless. Crazy! My pack at home hasn’t reduced more than a half inch - inch since the storm, about as perfect retention as it gets.

I think AI-GFS did okay with the last storm here, it was almost in lockstep with the Euro AIFS. So I won't kick it out of bed with that precip depication...

I thought the 00z euro looked better at H5 than it actually produced at the surface.

Feels like they are being conservative until MRX pulls the tigger… channel 3 was calling from 1-2 inches last night and nothing has really changed since then. They got beat up last weekend pretty bad .

Link didn’t work

Does that diatribe help you to feel better? You need something. Probably a study in creative imagination would soothe your senses. Have a good day my friend. We will chat again under better circumstances. 7 degrees and cloudy at 5:30

Well damn...that looks really good. Keeps getting better with time. If the Euro didn't show a similar evolution, I'd be skeptical.

Yeah Ai has had it multiple runs, however, last night it was farther NW. type of system where I’m okay with it being farther SE currently