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Probably make more free throws than Pitt at the very least .

Not sure why, things were picking up nicely here then a dry crack started and everything just collapsed around me. Gonna have to wait for that to fill back in while the warm nose creeps north.

14F/DP -2/High clouds Coldest I've seen before a storm in a while...

Christ I was kidding... I live in SE Michigan and we get burned all the time on weather events here it sucks when you do all this tracking and then boom it slips away from you. I feel for them... Anyways let's have a great 18z model suite.

Nothing here yet but it's in it's way.

Final Forecast for the Storm Some adjustments were made to reduce snow a touch and increase sleet which is a lower ratio component of the forecast. Still will be a formidable storm with some ice accretion added for good measure. A lot of the snowfall range should be take for a south to north crescendo with higher ranges more likely to the north of the lines presented. Will not be perfect by any stretch, but gives a good proxy. High impact event regardless as cold air behind the storm is very legit and we will struggle to break freezing for several days post storm. Be warm and safe everyone!

Ray what was that storm that rotated back from Nova Scotia gave you a foot. Bet you get smoked

179 FXUS61 KOKX 131448 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 948 AM EST THU FEB 13 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A NOR-EASTER WILL IMPACT THE TRI-STATE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE EXITING ON FRIDAY. A WEAKER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY BUILDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL NOON TODAY/... AS OF 9 AM...A BAND OF VERY HEAVY SNOW WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 3 TO 6 INCHES PER HOUR HAS OVERSPREAD COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE REGION...COLLOCATED WITH AN INTENSE FRONTOGENETIC BAND LIFTING NORTH FROM CENTRAL NJ AND OFF THE OCEAN. REPORTS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES IN 30 MINUTES HAVE BEEN COMING INTO THE OFFICE UNDER THIS BAND. IN ADDITION...WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST...RESULTING IN NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY AT TIMES. THIS HEAVY SNOW BAND WILL CONTINUE TO WORK NORTHWARD INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT THROUGH 11 AM...COMBINED WITH 25 TO 35 MPH GUSTS...WITH RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS. AROUND 1 FT OF SNOW LIKELY FROM MID MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH THIS BAND. AT THE SAME TIME...WATCHING TRANSITION LINE TO SLEET AND RAIN CREEPING UP THE COAST...CURRENTLY JUST SOUTH OF LI/NYC. THIS SHOULD START WORKING INTO THE SHORELINE OF LI/NYC BY AROUND 9 AM...AND THEN GRADUALLY PROGRESSING NORTH AND WESTWARD THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING. CHANGEOVER LINE WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT TRIES TO PROGRESS NORTH ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL FRONTOGENETIC BAND IS NORTH OF THE REGION BY MID AFTERNOON. OTHER FEATURE OF NOTE IS DRY SLOT WORKING NORTH THROUGH THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NJ THIS MORNING...WHICH SHOULD WORK INTO LI/NYC AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NE NJ BY AROUND MIDDAY...AND THEN INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND CT BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND THEN NORTH OF THE REGION BY MID AFTERNOON. ONLY LIGHT SHOWERY PRECIP EXPECTED UNDER THIS DRY SLOT FOR REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...UNTIL DEFORMATION BANDING/INSTABILITY PRECIP STARTS WORKING IN FROM THE SW AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW IN THE EVENING. A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA. && .SHORT TERM /NOON TODAY THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... THE TIMING OF CHANGEOVER BACK TO SNOW THIS EVENING AND WHERE THE HEAVIEST AXIS OF DEFORMATION ZONE PCPN SETS UP REMAINS A WILD CARD...BUT EARLY INDICATION ARE THAT IT MAY SET UP A BIT FARTHER EAST ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE 00Z AND 06Z NAM SHOWS A ROBUST AXIS OF PCPN WITH OVER A HALF INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT. ISOLD TSTMS POSSIBLE TNGT. FIRST CHCS WITH THETAE ADVECTION...SECOND ROUND WITH H5 LOW PASSING OVER THE CWA. WINDS STILL ON TRACK FOR 45 MPH GUSTS ACROSS ERN ZONES WITH A 970S LOW NEAR MARTHAS VINEYARD AT 6Z FRI. ISOLD HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTN WITH A 60 KT NELY LLJET AT H925. DRY AND WINDY ON FRI WITH GUSTS IN THE 35-40 MPH RANGE. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES FRIDAY NIGHT...EMERGES OFF THE COAST SATURDAY MORNING...AND PASSES WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXTEND NORTHWARD FROM THE CENTER AND PASS THROUGH THE TRI STATE AREA. CAPPED POPS AT CHANCE FOR NOW...WITH GENERALLY HIGHER CHANCES OF PCPN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. PCPN TYPE MAINLY SNOW...BUT A RAIN/SNOW MIX COULD DEVELOP IN ANY REMAINING PCPN DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE SE ZONES WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING. POTENTIAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH THIS EVENT...MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION OF A STRONGER LOW CENTER PASSING TO THE SOUTH AND A WEAKER LOW TO THE NORTH. THE ECMWF ALSO BRINGS THE LOW CENTER CLOSEST TO THE COAST AS IT PASSES BY...SO WILL NEED TO SEE IF THE OTHER MODELS TREND TOWARDS ITS CLOSER/WETTER SOLUTION AND IF THIS COULD BE MORE THAN A LIGHT SNOWFALL POTENTIAL. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TIMING DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST AMONG THE MODELS REGARDING THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. HAVEN'T CHANGED ALL THAT MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...SO WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS AND MIXED PCPN MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THEN FOLLOWS ON WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... ...HIGH IMPACT WINTER STORM THROUGH TONIGHT... LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. LOW-MOD CONFIDENCE WITH PCPN TYPE AND TIMING AFTER 15Z AS SNOW MIXES WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...POSSIBLY GOING OVER TO ALL RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET AS FAR WEST AS THE NYC TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHEAST TO NORTH WIND INCREASE INTO THE AFTN TO 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT. WIND BECOMES NORTHWEST TO WEST AFTER 03Z 15 TO 25 KT GUSTING UP TO 35 KT. SNOWFALL TOTALS THROUGH 00Z FRI...COASTAL 5-10 INCHES. INLAND 7-12 INCHES. 0.05 TO 0.10 INCHES OF ICE IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON FROM KEWR TO KTEB TO KHPN TO KBDR. TONIGHT PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS BACK TO ALL SNOW...WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS. ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES AT THE COAST...AND 4-8 INCHES INLAND. THE SNOW WILL BE TAPERING OFF AND ENDING 09Z THROUGH 12Z WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: PCPN MIX OF SLEET...RAIN...AND SNOW THROUGH 18Z. PERIOD OF -RA/DZ PSBL THROUGH THE AFTN. TIMING OF PCPN TYPE CHANGE OVER COULD DIFFER 1-2 HOURS. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: PCPN MIX OF SLEET...RAIN...AND SNOW THROUGH 18Z. PERIOD OF -RA/DZ PSBL THROUGH THE AFTN. TIMING OF PCPN TYPE CHANGE OVER COULD DIFFER 1-2 HOURS. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: PCPN MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW THROUGH 18Z. PERIOD OF -RA/DZ PSBL THROUGH THE AFTN. TIMING OF PCPN TYPE CHANGE OVER COULD DIFFER 1-2 HOURS. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: PCPN MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW THROUGH 18Z. PERIOD OF -RA/DZ PSBL THROUGH THE AFTN. TIMING OF PCPN TYPE CHANGE OVER COULD DIFFER 1-2 HOURS. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE THROUGH 16Z. PCPN MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW THROUGH 18Z. PERIOD OF -RA/DZ PSBL THROUGH THE AFTN. TIMING OF PCPN TYPE CHANGE OVER COULD DIFFER 1-2 HOURS. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: HEAVY SNOW PSBL THROUGH 16Z. PCPN MIX OF SLEET...RAIN...AND SNOW THROUGH 20Z. PERIOD OF -RA/DZ PSBL THROUGH THE AFTN. TIMING OF PCPN TYPE CHANGE OVER COULD DIFFER 1-2 HOURS. .OUTLOOK FOR 15Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... .FRI...VFR WITH STRONG W WINDS EARLY. POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR IN SN SHOWERS FRI EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. WEST WIND AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. .SAT...CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MORNING WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. SNOW ENDING AROUND 17Z WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS. NW WINDS AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT. .SUN-MON...MAINLY VFR. PCPN PSBL BY MON EVENING BRINGING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. && .MARINE... GALES WINDS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING. ISOLD STORM FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN. THE GALES CONTINUE TNGT AS THE LOW PASSES NE OF THE WATERS...AND FINALLY WIND DOWN BY LATE IN THE DAY FRI. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE FRIDAY NIGHT. ALL BUT THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...AND REMAIN BELOW IT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS THEN INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. SCA FOR ALL WATERS PROBABLE DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE WATERS. && .HYDROLOGY... AROUND 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH THE UPCOMING STORM. SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. WHILE MOST OF THE AREAS WILL RECEIVE SNOW...EASTERN PORTIONS OF LI AND CT COULD RECEIVE A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAINFALL RESULTING IN AREAS OF MINOR FLOODING...PARTICULARLY WHERE SNOW AND ICE BANKS HAVE LIMITED DRAINAGE. LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THIS TIME FRAME. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON FOR HIGH SURF OF 6 TO 10 FT AT THE OCEAN FACING SHORELINES. MAIN TIME PERIOD OF CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS THE THIS EVE/TONIGHT HIGH TIDE CYCLE...WITH GENERALLY 2 TO 2 1/2 FT OF STORM SURGE. LOCALIZED MINOR COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH SHORE OF WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND AND TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND WITH 1 TO 3 FT WAVE ACTION. ELSEWHERE...LOCALIZED IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND AND NY HARBOR. SOME OF THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS ARE FROZEN...COMPLICATING THE THREAT. && .EQUIPMENT... DUE TO INTERFERENCE ISSUES WITH THE U.S. COAST GUARD EMERGENCY BROADCAST CHANNEL...THE NEW YORK CITY NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO STATION KWO35 IS OUT OF SERVICE. DURING THE TIME...THE TRANSMITTER MAY BE RETURNED TO SERVICE INTERMITTENTLY FOR USE OF THE NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO DURING POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATIONS...FOR ROUTINE WEEKLY TEST OF THE WARNING SYSTEM...AND TO DETERMINE IF THE INTERFERENCE ISSUE HAS BEEN RESOLVED. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR CTZ005>012. NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ067>075- 078>081-176>179. HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ080-081-178-179. NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NJZ002-004-006- 103>108. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ335-338-345-355. GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-340-350-353. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMC/JC NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...JMC LONG TERM...JC AVIATION...BC/SEARS MARINE...JMC/JC HYDROLOGY...JMC/JC TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... EQUIPMENT...

The posters from coastal NJ south of maybe Asbury Park yes since there's an easterly flow established, otherwise no.

That's why I am not a fan of the snow maps, all they do is just take forecast QPF and multiply that by a snow ratio. There is no factoring in of lift, snow growth, RH of the DGZ and RH with respect to ice crystals in the DGZ. What separates the Kuchera from 10:1 (besides the obvious being 10:1 maps are constant) is it factors in the average temperature of the llvls to compute a snow ratio. The Kuchera method I also believe was designed to be a tool for snowfall depth. There are a few moduels on MetEd which go into some depth on these maps. When it comes to verifying Kuchera versus what occurred, the results were/are not particularly great.

I think we all know that isn't the case on here. There's a reason I rarely post.

34 with a few sleet pellets in my part of Maggie Valley.

I agree about the very slow ramping up of the QPF. That’s why I’m leaning higher from my area. 12 to 18 but I think they’ll be people in southern New Hampshire who get 20 or a little more it just won’t be widespread.

Does anyone think outside of southeast LI anywhere will go above freezing during this storm?

The fact that Beavis of all people is trying to play peacemaker is sending me...

Let's see how the NAM handled snow in Arkansas so far First image is snowfall output from NAM 2nd is observed at official stations Take a big look at Little Rock Out of all the models euro preformed best there Almost all pushed mix to far north Different system when it gets up here but at least we have some data Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

I tend to agree. Although the flip is being modeled sooner and sooner with each run.

We'll see. Models get a lot wrong around here though. If it rains surface temps will be warmer than what they say.

White painted plywood is ideal. For this storm where all surfaces will be equally cold, a patio table would work. Especially if it isn’t blocked by your house.

Light sleet at the house (3200ft).

…maybe because people should treat each other well???

i remember it being around mlk day, as i was off.

I think a lot of us are going to be worried about the sleep line after this week of tracking

@Nomzis feeling good about sticking to 4-8 and waiting to go big, right?!?!

You cannot discount anything at this point.