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  2. Typhoon Tip
    Lot of crispy tcu going up. Can see your anvil bombs on the N-NW horizon. Fun day
  3. Superstorm
    Gorgeous weather. Bottle this up! .
  4. winterwx21
    Certainly would be nice if GFS is right about heavy rain across our area, but who knows. 12z HRRR has heavy rain going over our area, but obviously the day before it's very difficult for the models to predict which areas will get 1 to 2 inches and which areas only a quarter inch. Hopefully we'll get lucky with the heavy downpours. I'm desperate for heavy rain.
  5. LakePaste25
    Not that unusual in super Nino events. I wouldn’t expect 24/7 +AAM and it’ll probably bounce back quickly.
  6. Maggie Valley Steve
    Happy Summer Solstice! It's all downhill from here until Fall!
  7. Kmlwx
    FWIW - the 12z CSU MLP maps have reduced quite a bit.
  8. Jackstraw
    It's been great so far. But me thinks this rubber band is about to snap lol.
  9. LakePaste25
    I know @bluewave brings this up a lot, but I will forever be fascinated by the clean phase 8 pass through in January 2022. With all of the competing Nina forcing going on, I don’t know how we pulled that off especially during an actual Nina.
  10. SJonesWX
    I hope that stuff stays east of me. Got the grill going and don’t want to stand out in the rain
  11. LakePaste25
    I consider 2021-2022 to be an east-based La Niña.
  12. Itstrainingtime
    What makes you say that? WPC precip map is weighted heavily to our NE with the heaviest rainfall.
  13. mitchnick
    The Jamstec. My new favorite seasonal model...so far. https://www.jamstec.go.jp/aplinfo/sintexf/e/seasonal/outlook.html
  14. Today
  15. mahantango#1
    I'm glad I have my irrigation pump set up to pump water out of the creek for my garden. I watered Friday and yesterday morning.
  16. dendrite
    Just had a really close CG. Just getting grazed by a developing cell.
  17. Stormlover74
    12z similar
  18. psv88
    Beautiful Father’s Day. Enjoy all
  19. CoastalWx
    Yeah I would expect the latter in the warm season but those can also produce big rains.
  20. Typhoon Tip
    It's interesting how that thing's changed over the week running up to it ... It was originally sort of weird quick coastal ( that looked dubious, admittedly), replete with a burst of NE flow and drilling rains ... Probably 60 F tops. Now, it's more like it's just a humid disjointed morass with less structure overall.
  21. jm1220
    Yep-skunk zone. T-storms area to the south and stratiform heavy rain along I-90. We need it, hope I’m wrong. But this is a summer SWFE that always tries to nudge north. Maybe the T-storms zone can nudge N too.
  22. Baum
    On target for the worst Fathers Day I remember.
  23. Kmlwx
    I've heard (usually from @high risk ) that the HRRR tends to overmix out low level moisture - could that be a factor here?
  24. vortex95
    HRRR and RRFS have meaty storms and in two distinct waves. However, CAPE is rather low for this time of year for a svr event. Hodographs look better on the NAM/HRRR but not so much on the RRFS. 0-3 km CAPE is lacking on the HRRR and RRFS, so I have to wonder about tor potential. It is fairly strong s/w for June passing just to our N and overall wind fields are good, so perhaps the dynamical part will make up for the rather low CAPE and that's why the HRRR and RRFS show meaty storms. PWATs ramp up nicely during the day. K-indices fcst get to upper 30s so likely big rain producers.
  25. suzook
    Another cloudy dreary day. I can't believe how stuck in this cloudy wet pattern we have been in here. About a month so far. Depressing.
  26. Kmlwx
    I'm more "in" on this one than the prior events. It could still fizzle - and I certainly don't think it's going to be an "outbreak" - but storm coverage has higher confidence it seems - and the shear does raise some eyebrows! Also I'll be in the office - which seems to guarantee good storms (my office is in the core of the building with no windows - so I essentially miss anything that happens during cool events).
  27. PhiEaglesfan712
    About 2 years ago, I did the composites on the moderate and strong la ninas. 1975-76 was the closest to being east based of the strong la ninas. 1949-50 is probably the best example of an east based la nina, with 1970-71 and 1984-85 possibly being east based.
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