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Agree I'm seeing the range of possibilities maybe being 6-18 inches in this storm. The stakes aren't that high, It's not a nothing or 2 feet scenario here.

Luckily, this type of setup doesn't really give us a dry slot issue, so that's good news.

I've been using that storm as a guide here but displaced 75 miles south or so...very similar but the thermal boundary is a little further south this time.

I wouldn't even venture a guess except the farther south the primary transfers to the coast the more snow here

https://i.ibb.co/1GXQtC88/ukmo-global-prateptype-ukmo-imp-us-ma-2026012212-78.png

UKMET also starting to show a Hudson Bay/James Bay low like the GFS and ICON… may help us.

Nexactly!

Ukie... The mix and dry slot getting close on that run

Ukie a bit slower i think... at 66 its just starting to show snow at DCA

I think you’ll need to tack on 6”+ after the initial overrunning thump to get 20” amounts. That’s possible but it requires some form of a CCB even if it’s mostly lower level…all that onshore flow from 850 and below. Guidance disagrees on the extent of that type of setup early Monday.

At least today is 44. Not looking forward to 40 days and 40 nights of BN and snow. Feels like 2015 walking in the door.

I'm seeing single digit lows for Monday morning.

hoping the UKIE looks a bit better. 500 level seems to indicate northern stream lagging a bit compared to 6z, let's see if that leads to a bit less amplification.

79/71 here in Miami. 71 dewpoint! @mahantango#1 let's trade places.

Heights lower out front at 66 (UKMET)

I agree with you. I think temperatures above 29° will not cause a problem on the road considering precipitation rates and standing water. .

It is and does not get mixing as far north.

Apple weather is still showing 20-25 inches in DC… some people are going to be very disappointed.

Sorry for referring it to a name lol I can’t remember dates .

Fwiw at 60hrs, snow/sleet line along KY/TN border looks fairly similar between 3k NAM, FV3, and RGEM.

Agree, one of the more suspenseful remaining aspects of this imo if we're looking for the more "exotic" "nirvana" solutions of SWFE + CCB to get us to 20" and over I think ICON has had some of the better depictions of this, by virtue of faster infusion of energy and tilting of the trough

If you include the big maps from Monday Tuesday, plus the big maps of the possible snowstorm in the mountains from this previous weekend when I was in East Tennessee. Ive missed about 30-35 inches of snow in a week lol.

Feb 2007 was the biggest sleet storm I've ever seen. That storm has been a top 5 analog leading into this weekend lol. My buddy's wife is an Xray tech and she said they had a line out the door for 3 days following that storm. Mostly from sledding accidents lol. It was an absolute glacier in my yard. It was supposed to be a big snow storm and I was initially bummed when the flip came in quick but as the sleet kept piling up I was fascinated hahaha