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  2. LakePaste25
    Important to note that this El Niño event will remove a lot of heat from the oceans if it materializes as record-breaking. This is one of the reasons why El Nino doesn’t preclude a strong La Niña, and ENSO itself acts more like a damped nonlinear recharge oscillator.
  3. enpawx_observer
    They just showed a drone shot on the Phillies broadcast and it's pretty heavy. Not as bad as Thursday but still super noticeable
  4. jm1220
    Latest HRRR has the South Jersey Alley area keep getting hit and whatever storms coming from UNY fizzling as they get here.
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    I never mentioned climate models. I'm just saying the logic is areas further north and over the arctic are +2-3std greater than the tropics and mid-latitudes. So when a 11-year anomaly is centered so far south, and with much greater anomaly than the north, that's because something big is going on. A specific meteorological pattern. These jumps to you are like "points" or "thresholds" but I don't think it works like that. Maybe a small part, but there was a string in 1976-1983 with 4 El Nino's, 3 Neutral, and 0 La Nina's and that was followed by one of the most +PNA times decadally on record. Super El Nino's are not expanding the Pacific Hadley Cell to such an extent imo. Actually the most basic argument is that Super Nino-driven global max temp rises should be melting Arctic ice to a greater extent, and the opposite has happened since 2013. Imo, that's a big reason for the -PNA patterns, constant low pressure over the Arctic circle in the warm season. I agree that it will be interesting to see where we go from here. But I don't expect the main cause to be a northern and southern Hemisphere Hadley Cell expansion much greater than all other regions of the globe.
  6. weatherwiz
    That stuff west of BGM starting to look pretty good with cooling cloud tops. Looks like it just behind the warm front too. Probably up to the CT River probably still in game for svr potential given it looks like the warm front should get there. Want to see dews get to around 72-73...not sure how far northeast those will make it though
  7. BBasile
    Still 89F with a 79F dew here. Plenty of juice.
  8. SnowenOutThere
    Looks like I can check off getting inside the notch of a supercell from the bucket list.
  9. Damage In Tolland
    Not with these low clouds /fog and 67/65. It’s another congrats Waterbury to DXR Southwest
  10. jm1220
    Like clockwork whenever we have an event.
  11. RedSky
    It is very smokey
  12. BoulderWX
    KDIX radar down. Not great timing
  13. wxmeddler
    I haven't seen any reports of non-tree based damage. Most stuff I've seen has been tree damage that seems 60 mph or less.
  14. CoastalWx
    I think you could get clipped.
  15. RedSky
    The activity in NW PA won't make it here before 9pm if I had to hazard a guess
  16. mahantango#1
    That Tamaqua split is affecting the rainfall for your friends including me southwest of your locale.
  17. BlizzardNole
    Based on radar, I will be out watering the garden later
  18. bluewave
    That’s due to the evolution of the climate models lagging behind the speed at which the climate is warming. So all these big shifts have been occurring without any prior notice. The first big global temperature jump in 1997-1998 lead to the loss of most of the older Arctic sea ice during the 2000’s. Summers began to significantly warm around 2010 at this new higher baseline level. North American winters dramatically warmed following the 2015-2016 super El Niño. The rapid warming of the Pacific east of Japan and to the north of Hawaii occurred at this new baseline. The next big jump was in 2023-2024 which is only three years ago. Two of the warmest winters on record for the CONUS occurred at this new higher temperature level. Now we are looking at another global temperature jump with this strongest El Niño on record only three years later which is a first. So my guess is that we see more shifts which weren’t anticipated following the jump in global temperatures with this even more extreme event.
  19. Intensewind002
    Total rainfall 1.61" in Lindenhurst, 4.93" for the month of july
  20. weatherwiz
    Hoping to go after that stuff moving past BGM now. Hopefully it will remain on a trajectory or pass close enough to BDL.
  21. TauntonBlizzard2013
    Where’s the first round? Lol
  22. Ginx snewx
    Tough to bust before it happens
  23. Torch Tiger
    no one expected anything, tough to bust
  24. Damage In Tolland
    Let’s see how we’ll get screwed Tuesday
  25. snowfan
    Green sky looking north towards BWI. Constant T&L.
  26. ThePhotoGuy
    FD on scene of a large tree into a home in Ferndale (near BWI).
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