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The wind only allowed me a couple hours of sleep last night after tree crashed in neighbors yard so I made a pot of coffee and made great progress on my project. I have daily indicies values for NAO, AO, PNA, GBI, ENSO, SO, MJO for 1950-2025 that all have been standardized for 1950-2000 period. The last 3 on the list took forever due to having calculated them from raw data. Once I found NOAA data documentation it was manageable. I also have Harrisburg raw data from 12/1/1899 to present. I standardized it over same period while smoothing according to NWS policy. I just started running ungodly statistical tests involving lagging correlations but the main point here is I have lost a lot of faith in MU. So much of the final outcome here is basically down to timing luck and mesodynamics but that still doesn't take away from teleconnection stacking the deck some going through his Twitter history he doesn't like to put his cards on the table until the time to do so is way over, nor does he explain in a logical coherent manner before the fact why he thinks what he says. It's alwAys later using post fact rationalization using data, events, facts that one arent really related to teleconnection. He's basically dipping into that mesodynamics, timings, whatever else whitch brew to let his prejudice be known. Because here is the kicker. He doesn't treat other months of the year anywhere like he does winter. Probably lowering .confidence overall in him for winter months by 25%. Just because our luck factor, climatology speaking with snow is poor, isn't a reason to hide behind it. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Sleep lmao

850s are kind of shot though. Tricky balance for this one and we’re already playing behind. I’m cautiously unoptimistic (pessimistic?) but what else is there to do

Gfs always slow to change look at that non event last week when the gfs was showing a big sleet storm till inside 36hrs. Model sucks

Cmc went way north though

Report of 3” in Findlay. I think the NWS might’ve swung and missed on this one, roads were not good at all coming home from BG. They’ll probably wind up with around 2-3” from these bands

back in DC - cold. 25F.

YOU ARE NOT RETIRED, REAPER! YOU ARE REINSTATED... ---EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY!--- Get your ass back on the Beat! Texas will be breaking new high temperature records come the New Year, Western ski resorts will be seeing small dry snowstorms stacking up snow again, a foot of snow at a time, and the Mid Atlantic will be shyte out of Luck! Lucy will be in top form! YOU GET YOUR REAPER ASS OFF OF THAT DEMONIC COUCH RIGHT NOW - GET YER ASS BACK IN OUR REALM AND YOU BEST BE WEARING THAT MURDER GARMENT! NOW!!!! OR I WILL KNOW THE REASON WHY!!! DON'T MAKE ME HAVE TO CHASE YOU DOWN IN THE 4D ETHERIC REALM! I HAVE SOURCES WHO SAY YOU ARE LOCATED IN THE LOWER 4D DENSITY! I WILL FIND YOU!

Profoundly dull weather pattern .

Looking at upper levels (and I could be wrong here) I don’t see why it wouldn’t come even more north. The problem is with no cold press thermals would be an issue.

I feel like a couple of the outbreaks in 1994 and 1996 would give this a run for its money.

Almost no wind at OSV, which was nice. We were prepared for it (as far as clothing) but it wasn’t bad

Yup I was just coming to say. That Sunday deal came north about 300 miles since yesterday

0z GFS is a tad further north but not Euro-like for the 4th

You are objectively correct, eastern mass squandered a very cold December in terms of snowfall. It is also really not that big of a deal, it’s just snow. I wanted more snow but it is what it is, on to January.

Dual pol radar velocity measurements via radarscope using distance radius tool which helpfully includes beam height with distance with passing line Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Can you post it? TYIA

Hugging the Euro

Tomer burg is somewhat interested in Sunday

I did the analysis of the 15 Jans with phase 6 during La Niña (1975-2025) Year….# phase 6 days…avg anomaly 1975…3…-8 1976…13…-9 1989…3…+8 1999…3…+2 2000…3…-4 2006…6…+3 2008…3…+8 2009…6…+1 2011…12…-7 2012…19…+1 2017…2…0 2018…3…-2 2021…8…-1 2022…4…-9 2025…2…-5 ————— 91 total days that averaged ~-2 3 MBN 3 BN 6 NN 1 AN 2 MAN BAMwx said that the phase 6 MJO/-AAM analogs had this at ~-6 to -7. So, I believe based on the above analysis that this is a good bit overdone and should be ~-2. Granted, it came in cool on average with the -2 anomaly, which to me is admittedly a bit counterintuitive. And 1975, 1976, 2011, and 2022 came in quite cold during their Jan phase 6 days showing it would be doable. But one can see that only 6 of the 15 (40%) Jans during phase 6 were in BAMwx’s cold vicinity. So, I’d still much rather it go 8-1-2. Any comments? @donsutherland1@bluewave

Ya’ wind howling again.

Narcissistic disorder-- From the "top" on down-- the role modeled pathology of our times...

I remember tracking the rain/snow line on the old Accuweather radar. This storm was probably the best example I've ever seen of the saying "you have to smell the rain to get the best snows."

SWS issued by NWS. 30% chance

Reggie solid 3-5 se Mass up through BOS