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Trash night, so I’m expecting a good gust or two when the front rolls through. 72F

That was hard to watch last year. Very hard . .

The gulf had more snow than you lol.

64 for the low here in Lizella. Got a drenching 0.15" from the little front that has now finished passing through. Was nice to see the clouds spittle a little down our domain, though. It's been a while and I could see the squirrels looking at each other in my acorn-dappled yard, their eyes blinking in the tiny drops, and go,"What's that stuff?"

No I've just seen several posters in and around the forum say that this winter is looking bleak because of the ENSO, the record water temperature of the coast of China, and global warming.

68 here

The QBO differences you point out are real. I am not sure why he grouped things as he did.

Once again the models 3 days out were way overdone. Maybe we'll get lucky and get a half inch

Angry bee season. They don't mess around in September and October.

Had a good view of it from the east side this morning. It was impressive.

I do think the mountains fair well this season. It could be hell in between cold shots but the pattern likely favors a lot of nw flow action with brief cool downs. The lakes are extremely warm compared to normal which will delay if not prevent them from icing over.

I'm not expecting much here tonight or tomorrow. The ingredients just aren't there. Set expectations low and once in a while be pleasantly surprised.

These warm days really over perform. Actually balmy out

Only .01 from the first batch. Probably not going to be a drought buster here.

I think the huge difference is in 1+2. Last year, we were still in el nino there, which is why I'll never consider it a traditional la nina. This year, we at least have neutral to weak la nina conditions there, which correspond to the rest of the basin. Also, this -PDO is a continuation of the one that started in 2019-20, and went through the 2020-23 la nina. This is more like a 7th year -PDO, than a 2nd year -PDO (that was early in the 2020-23 la nina).

Man today is beautiful

F******.

Joe D’Aleo posted this yesterday: The northwest and northeast Pacific had warm water mid September, a cold signal for the US in the colder months if it persisted. *The latest warmth relating to the latest deep sea volcanism is moving east through the north Pacific. The QBO mode (east or west) modulates the favored trough ridge. This is an east QBO, favoring more cold further east in the USA. The La Nina is weak but supported by cold PDO. You can see that the east QBO La Ninas are colder than the west. Compositing the average year matching the east QBO, weak La Nina cold PDO and warm AMO with declining to weak solar matches JB's/WB's winter outlook. West QBO, strong La Ninas a very different tendency. —————— *Aside regarding what I bolded/asterisked, D’Aleo is attributing the W Pac warming to an increase in deep sea volcano activity there, which is a theory originating from Dr. Arthur Viterito, someone who doesn’t believe in AGW as the main reason for GW. I’m not agreeing with it, largely based on many@donsutherland1posts in our CC forum, but am posting it only because it is part of D’Aleo’s quote. ————— Any comments regarding D’Aleo’s support of JB’s winter outlook being like the colder top map and much colder than the mild bottom map? I see some problems with the QBOs for the winters he included for the 2nd map per this 30 mb table that I always use: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/qbo.data -1973-4 DJFM QBO was a slowly dropping neutral rather than W -1949-50 DJFM was E rather than W -1988-9 DJFM was neutral rather than W -2007-8 DJFM was a rapidly diminishing E rather than W

Special Weather Statement National Weather Service State College PA 1016 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025 PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046- 049>053-056>059-063>066-200215- Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield- Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin- Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Tioga-Northern Lycoming- Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour- Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon- Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster- 1016 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025 ...STRONG WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING... Strong winds across the region are expected for most of the afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. Sustained winds of 10 to 20 MPH out of the south will occasionally gust to between 30 and 40 MPH through this afternoon and into the evening. These winds are non-convective and will be separate from the line of gusty showers and thunderstorms anticipated for this afternoon along the cold front. There remains a marginal risk for severe storms this afternoon for most of central Pennsylvania. Strong winds can blow around loose and unsecured objects. Ensure that all outdoor decorations, furniture, and other objects are either secure or brought indoors. $$

That was last week

MRGL for most of the area which seems fair. Guidance is now in very good agreement that a strongly-forced, narrow line of heavy showers will race across the area during the evening: 9pm or so in the western burbs, 10pm in the DC-Baltimore area, and over the Bay by around 11. Wind fields are intense with some low-level shear, but instability will be negligible. Lightning therefore seems unlikely, and while winds will be gusty, severe gusts will be difficult to achieve. That said, I still can't completely rule out lightning or a few higher end gusts, and it's also possible that we end up with a tornado warning for someone for a brief couplet.

NWS OKX Updated AFD: SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... Key Messages: * A fast moving frontal system will bring a quick hitting band of moderate to heavy rain, isolated thunderstorms, and gusty winds late tonight into the Monday AM commute. * Isolated thunderstorms and/or a fine line of low topped convection are possible, bringing a low and localized potential for strong to damaging wind gusts or even a brief tornado. * South to southeast peak winds gusts of 30 to 40 mph are likely, particularly along southern and eastern coastal areas, bringing potential for scattered downed tree limbs and power lines * A minor urban and poor drainage flood threat exits as well. Models in good agreement with negatively tilting vigorous closed low approaching the region late tonight, and then pivoting through the area on Monday. At the surface, strong low pressure should continue to track NNE up towards Hudson Bay tonight, with its trailing cold front approaching the eastern US coast late this evening. Notable model trend over the last 24 hours of a slower and further NW development of secondary low pressure along the cold front late tonight into Monday AM, in response to the approaching closed upper low. This should keep the developing low well NW of the region early Monday morning, with trailing cold front crossing the region between 5 and 9am. Ahead of this, increasing cloud cover this evening, with a shot of moderate to heavy rain and breezy conditions late tonight into Monday morning ahead of approaching cold front and developing low pressure. This is in response to deep lift ahead of negatively tilting upper low in conjunction with advection of +2 std PWAT, marginally unstable, Atlantic airmass on the nose of a 45-50kt llj. In terms of winds, 15-25g30-40mph, with isolated gusts to 45 mph possible ahead of the front. Highest winds along the southern and eastern coasts. With S/SE wind direction and 40mph gust potential, scattered downed tree limbs and power lines are possible. In terms of rainfall, ensemble probabilities of 1" in 24 hours continue to run fairly meager 10-30 percent across interior. Deterministic models have backed down a bit with footprint of 1"+ rainfall amounts, particularly for western portions of the area, as slower and farther NW surface low development, slows intensification of WCB. Still, potential for a widespread 1/2 to 1 1/2", low prob of up to 2", mainly in a 3 hr period, particularly for interior S CT. WPC URRD continuing to indicate potential for a brief period of 1/2- 3/4"/hr, low prob 1" hr rainfall rates. See hydrology sections for possible impacts. Potential for some isolated thunderstorms, including a low topped convective fine line ahead of cold front, in the weakly unstable and strongly forced environment. Although a very low probability, cant rule out an isolated tstm bringing strong to damaging wind gust or even a rotating storm causing a brief weak tornado with a high shear/helicity and moist adiabatic low level environment. After collab with SPC and neighboring offices, marginal risk has been expanded into the local area. Rain should come to an end fairly quickly from west to east in wake of cold front Monday AM, although scattered shower activity is possible Monday aft/eve as the upper low moves through, particularly interior. Breezy W/NW wind gusts Monday aft/early eve (15-25G30-40mph) in wake of closed low and secondary cold front. Winds subside with drying conds Monday Eve/Night.

The petrichor smells great this morning! Currently 49° and rain in Wolf. I've had a few gusts to 30 in the last hour. Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk

Rainfall looking less than impressive for tomorrow. It blows up well east of the area

Yeah, 80-90 percent of my snow comes from NW flow lately. If we actually had an average amount of synoptic snow we could really rack up the seasonal total.