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Some extreme effects from this record developing El Nino showing up in South America.

Without going into a competing long response, I frankly just don't care about a warming planet. There's nothing I can do about it aside from having a well insulated home (which I have since I receive the highest rating from my local energy provider for houses my size) and driving a fuel efficient vehicle. It is not, nor has it ever been, on my list of life's concerns at all. I care about weather imby and judge that weather from current conditions and progs. How those conditions got there, I don't care.

Had a decent tiny thunderstorm around 3 am that popped up. Wasn't really expecting any rain

Guessing Feb 2015 was the one top-ten coldest. I wish we would focus a bit more on temp maxes instead of mean because I feel like the nocturnal element does inflate the degree of impact somewhat. I don't really care if its 21 on RAD nights instead of 18....I care how warm it is during the day and when it's precipitating. Don't get me wrong....I know it's warming, I'm not trying to steal anyone's climate change, but it's warming the most on clear nights and the days/stormy nights are most relevant to us.

The wind is already blasting onshore at jones beach, so we are going to have instability issues here. .

Its really looking cool and wet the next couple weeks. The Euro remains below average through early August after a few more days of heat.

a few peeks of sun out here north of Winchester but not much yet. Is that garbage out in Northern Ohio supposed to be our main show?

1300z SPC OTLK has moved the ENH southern line south to RIC... was near EZF on 06z outlook

Yeah 11z hrrrr seems like a winning scenario for most everyone

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026 Valid 211300Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected across a broad region from the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast States today into tonight. Swaths of damaging wind gusts are expected to be the most common impact, but some tornadoes are possible as well. ...Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast... A broad area of 40-50-kt mid-level west-southwesterly flow will overspread the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast as a large-scale trough amplifies and shifts across the northeastern CONUS. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of an eastward-moving cold front across the Ohio Valley and along a pre-frontal trough over the Mid-Atlantic. In the base of the trough, a convectively augmented mid-level impulse moving from the lower Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic may also serve as a focus for convective development. Severe thunderstorm potential could increase relatively early today across parts of Ohio into Pennsylvania and western New York. Diurnal heating within cloud breaks, combined with upper 60s to lower 70s F dewpoints, will support at least moderate surface-based instability across the broad pre-frontal warm sector. The most favorable overlap of this instability and 40-50 kt of effective shear is expected from the lower Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic, where a mix of organized clusters and supercells should evolve and spread eastward through the day. Swaths of damaging wind gusts will be the primary severe hazard, though severe hail will also be possible with any initial/sustained supercells. Additionally, a gradually strengthening and expanding 30-kt low-level jet will contribute to clockwise-curved low-level hodographs, and a few tornadoes may occur. This supercell related-tornado potential may focus along the warm front into parts of the Northeast, and with semi-discrete development later today focusing along the lee trough/edge of higher terrain, although low-level shear/SRH will be moderate in most of the open warm sector as well.

Same here. I feel like I didn't even really get to enjoy the summer. I regret not setting up shop outside and working like I did the past few summers. But I got myself one of those towers with 3 monitors hooked up and it would have just been a pain to bring that outside each day/inside and then the power strip. But its been work/summer classes so haven't been able to do much. I try and sit outside during the evenings but we get destroyed with mosquitos.

Sun is out in Charlestown wv at my work.

Same here. I think our show is at 7:00 in Frederick. Hopefully everything passes before then.

Heating is obviously a concern, but assuming we bust out into some partial clearing by late morning, HRRR and RRFS both have a couple of interesting lead cells followed by a squall line feature.

Maybe it's just me but this summer seems to have flown by.

Already dealing with the later sunrises and the earlier sunsets are getting noticeable too, it blows.

The soon to be retired Nam.

I would roll the dice and drive down. Heavy cloud cover here. I always take the under when I wake to cloud cover. Not saying strong storms are not possible, but as stated above I don’t feel it will be as widespread as if we woke to hot hazy clear skies. Disclaimer: I’m not a met. But I am an enthusiast that’s lived here 40 of my adult years. .

The -SOI streak just hit 72 days, which is tied with 1997 for the 2nd longest -SOI streak since the daily record start in 1991! There’s a near 100% chance that it will reach a new 2nd longest streak of 73 days tomorrow: https://data.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/SeasonalClimateOutlook/SouthernOscillationIndex/SOIDataFiles/DailySOI1887-1989Base.txt

Sussex county into the Hudson Valley seems to be the big hits in the first wave. Storms are moving northeast in a unified direction fairly tight. https://weather.com/weather/radar/interactive/l/fc41d839027a06b79c0a75586dd3720ebd5a5484e2fcbe05d3c372b35879fe97

Today is the climo warmest day for CON. All downhill from here…sadly.

Records: Highs: EWR: 103 (2011) NYC: 104 (1977) LGA: 100 (2019) JFK: 99 (2019) Lows: EWR: 56 (1951) NYC: 55 (1890) LGA: 62 (1974) JFK: 58 (1965) Historical: 1911 - The temperature at Painter, WY, dipped to 10 degrees to equal the record low for July for the continental U.S. (The Weather Channel) 1930: The state record for Delaware was established that day with a reading of 110 °F at Millsboro, Delaware. (Ref. Lowest and Highest Temperatures for the 50 States) 1934 - The temperature reached 109 degrees at Cincinnati, OH, to cap their hottest summer of record. The state record for Ohio was established that day with a reading of 113 degrees near the town of Gallipolis. (David Ludlum) 1939: Richmond, Virginia had a high temperature for the day of 65 °F making it the coolest July day on record (records since 1897). (Ref. Richmond Weather Records) 1942: This is the only occurrence Miami, FL has ever seen 100°. (Extreme Weather p. 273, by Christopher C. Burt) 1947: Holt, MO records world record 12 inches of rain in only 42 minutes.(Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1975 - Six inches of rain fell across Mercer County, NJ, in just ten hours causing the worst flooding in twenty years. Assunpink Creek crested eleven feet above flood stage at Hamilton and Trenton, the highest level of record. Traffic was brought to a standstill, and railway service between New York City and Washington D.C. was cut off for two days. Flooding left 1000 persons homeless, and caused an estimated 25 million dollars damage. (David Ludlum) 1979: Parts of Lancaster County into the west central Chester County, Pennsylvania region was hit with torrential rain during the morning, with most of the rain falling in about 5 hours. In Chester County, Newlinville received 8.11 inches and Valley Township 7.56 inches. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1986: A tremendous heat wave continued across the South. This was the 15th day in a row with 100° plus degree readings at Columbia, SC. Macon, GA topped out at 106 °F. It was also the 10th consecutive day with 100° degree plus heat at Macon. (Extreme Weather p. 273, by Christopher C. Burt) (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1987 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather from Utah to North Dakota, spawning a dozen tornadoes in North Dakota. Thunderstorms in North Dakota also produced baseball size hail at Clifford which caused four million dollars damage, and high winds which toppled a couple of eighty foot towers cutting off power to the town of Blanchard. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - While cool air invaded the central U.S., unseasonably hot weather continued over the western states. The temperature at Spring Valley, NV, soared from a morning low of 35 degrees to an afternoon high of 95 degrees. Fallon, NV, reported an all-time record high of 108 degrees, and Death Valley, CA, reported their sixth straight day of 120 degree heat. (The Weather Channel) (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Afternoon thunderstorms over Florida produced wind gusts to 92 mph at Jacksonville, damaging thirteen light planes at Herlong Field. Five cities in Texas reported record low temperatures for the date. Corpus Christi, TX, equalled their record low for the date with a reading of 71 degrees, and then tied their record high for the date that afternoon with a reading of 97 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1991: Boston, MA recorded 81 °F for the warmest low temperature. 100 degree readings are not common in Rhode Island, but the mercury topped out at 102° at Providence on this day, the second day in a row that the thermometer reached the century mark. (Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events) 1993: The Mississippi River crested at 46.9 feet at St. Louis, MO, easily breaking the old record of 43.2 feet established in the 1973 flood. The 11 mile long, 52 foot high flood wall kept water out of the city center. In spite of all the damage the flood did, it is estimated that without all of the flood-control measures in place today, the price tag from the flood would have easily doubled its astronomical $20 billion total. The record crest would be topped again on August 1st. The heavy rainfall that occurred earlier in the month set the stage for what became the flood of the century in Iowa. The city of Des Moines was very hard hit. At the peak of the flooding, nearly 35,000 households were without electricity and 50,000 were without power. Water service was out for 250,000 people, which is the largest water outage in United States history. Losses to the businesses in Des Moines were estimated at $800 million dollars, from physical damage to the buildings and lost business. Other damage in Des Moines included $30 million dollars to homes, $75 million dollars to the levee system and $20 million dollars to the water treatment plant. Damage to West Des Moines was also well over $30 million dollars. Crop damage was extensive as 6.5 million acres of cropland were damaged by the flood. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1995: A camper at Colonial Beach in Westmoreland County, VA took refuge under a tree during a thunderstorm. The tree was struck by lightning, which in turn caused second degree burns over 20 percent of the camper's body. (Ref. Lightning - Virginia Weather History) 1997: Extreme flooding occurred over Baldwin County, Alabama as the remnants of Hurricane Danny drifted slowly northeastward after dumping 30 inches of rain over coastal Alabama. The worst flooding occurred around the Fish River where 500 homes were damaged. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1999: The Cedar River in Charles City, IA reached its all-time crest of an estimated 22.8 feet. Approximately 100 homes had flood damage in Charles City. Almost 12 inches of rain fell in a 48 hours period over these counties. Rainfall totals that day: New Hampton, IA: 7.10 inches (wettest day on record), Charles City, IA: 6.65 inches, West Union, IA: 4 inches. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2006: Western Washington: An unusual heat wave in western Washington breaks five maximum temperature records: Vancouver at 104°F, Olympia at 100°F, Seattle at 97°F, and Hoquiam at 90°F. (Ref. WxDoctor) 2011: at 4:50 PM Chicago bakes in first back-to-back 100-degree days in 16 years since deadly heat wave in July 1995 The mercury hit 101 degrees at Midway Airport at 4:40 pm Thursday afternoon marking the second straight day of triple-digit heat there. This was the city's first encounter with back- to-back 100-degree days in 16 years since the deadly heat wave of July 1995. Back then the mercury soared to 106 degrees on July 13 and was followed by a 102 degree high on July 14. The city's official site at O'Hare Airport has fallen just short of triple-digit heat for the second straight day. Today official high there was 99 degrees recorded at 1:58 pm. On Wednesday the 20th the city's official high at O'Hare international Airport was also 99 degrees. (Ref. WGN Chicago Weather Center - Tom Skilling)

It might be NW of the city. East of the city looks like the split screw area based on short term modeling.

76 / 60 and much more humid air moves in on the southerly flow ahead of the front. Storms / rain into northern areas and some clearing working east out of PA to potentially heat things up for some unstable triggers later. Still think we have clouds and showers lingering a bit tomorrow before clearing out. Overall below normal 7/23 - 7/29 and with the trough in place id look for more unforeseen storms / rain chances early next week Monday. Beyond there western ridge builds heat and the atlantic ridge is building wst. 7/30 - beyond moderation to a warmer/ humid and next shot at heat potential.

IMBY my little backyard rain gauge says we received over 4 inches the last 24 hours Yowzer