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  2. katabatic
    I am very intrigued about this winter. There is so much oceanic heat wrt normal (what the hell does that mean anymore) that anything is possible. I've seen more than one long range forecast that depicts areas N of 40 deg being at or even a little below normal due to the wobbly 'polar vortex'. I think that's a long shot but by using the Tug as a base of operations, all else being equal, it's certainly positions us better than most. I did a chase up in Canada two years ago and it was a lot of fun and there are some serious bay effect areas SE of James/Hudson Bay. Ironically, Canada's plowing suuuuucks, so I have what amounts to seat belts for my tires. It's designed to be a bit more pleasant to drive on than traditional chains while still providing traction. I also purchased a Bluetti that will essentially turn my truck cabin into a living room for up to 3 days so @dailylurker and I can be completely mobile. If it's 38 and rain in New York, welp, filler up and head north.
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    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

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  4. alex
    Amazing how much difference the topography of Hawaii makes. It’s been calm wind with occasional light showers all day here in Kona, although the wind is now ripping. The leeward side of the island has been battered all day
  5. Maestrobjwa
    Yeah this is the part about Philly fans I just cannot understand! I mean bruh...THREE SBs and winning two of those three? I mean outside of being Chiefs fans it literally does not get better than that. That is some bottomless angst right there, lol
  6. snowfan
    Os tied for the final wc spot. Such a strange season.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Typo-
  8. jaxjagman
    This thread has become into a bitch session from i said and you said and im right and you are wrong,its become quite comical ,its not even weather realated and some of yall talk about humility, you should act it than preach it
  9. snowlover2
    Not entirely. There was a handful of tornado warnings north of Dayton with a confirmed one with damage reports near New Paris. Local news got some amazing pics/videos of well defined wall clouds and funnels.
  10. Golf757075
    This niño looks to be crazy strong. Nobody denying that. The key if we get cold will be if the niño stays east based. If it does, it will be more difficult to see cold weather compared to central based or east central based imo. Only take one winter storm to make a season. Still way out there but important nonetheless
  11. Today
  12. Avdave
    I know its mid August and this is NC, but I'm so done with the heat and humidity. Its has been just relentless for us this summer. I'm done with it and yet we have all of Sept to go through with it too.
  13. Chambana
    Under another flash flood watch starting at midnight for another round of 1-2” of rainfall. Truly one of the craziest summers I have seen.
  14. CheeselandSkies
    Yeah, earlier model runs showing a good MCV threat somewhere from N IL to OH for today were a big tease.
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  17. Chambana
    Substantial flooding. Just north of Champaign in Rantoul there was a bullseye of 10.5” of rain. My rain gauge had 7.5”, this on the heels of a tornado that swept through Tuesday, quite the August pattern.
  18. WxWatcher007
    I’m a sucker for center passes but you are right. The RFQ is hitting dead on. It’s going to be a rough ride for them.
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  21. vortex95
    I am thinking the dew point advection will be enough in the aftn. They all show a finger of high CAPE (HRRR shows up to 4500, but that seems overdone, GFS and ECMWF have 2500 max) to n-cntrl VA, stopped just W of DC (really close, only about 20 mi W). So there is good CAPE available, just not widespread. It appears there will be a N-S warm or stationary front bisecting VA Sun aftn. Look at the HRRR fcst for 21z Sunday. That is quite a temp gradient, and such a boundary is ripe for tornadogenesis. Any storm crossing or latching on to such a boundary can go tornadic very quickly. Even on the cooler side, it can be favorable a short distance in b/c the cooler air is very shallow so a supercell is still effectively sfc-based.
  22. LibertyBell
    Apparently it was completely clear last night but I was too tired to stay up and look. I wonder what the rate would have been two nights after peak? The Perseids drop off rapidly after peak and I've never tried to look two nights after the peak.
  23. LibertyBell
    That's why I've been wondering if the el nino really becomes historic if the bake off summer will be in 2028 rather than 2027. This one might be more like 1998 rather than 1983.
  24. Yesterday
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  26. LibertyBell
    I cant help but think this is nature's way of dealing with climate change. In an ironic twist more smoke from wildfires, more flooding rains and more of a sea breeze at the coast have all resulted in less extensive and sustained coast to coast extreme heat than what we observed during the 80s and 90s in the specific years I outlined above. Do you think the planet has a heat ceiling that is close to being reached during the summer beyond which it physically can't get any hotter? The slower rise of temperatures in the summer hint at this while winter and other seasons warm faster. Also faster warming rates the farther north you go where the heat ceiling is higher even in summer. I think we'll eventually approach heat entropy when the temperature difference between the poles and the tropics is lower than it's ever been before.
  27. CAPE
    I'm on the schedule to get the deck boards replaced in early October it looks like at this point. See how it goes. Could put off the finish until Spring if necessary, NBD. But yeah lets schedule an estimate sometime before you go off on your winter snow chase. Jealous!
  28. Mrs.J
    Mr. J won tickets to see the NSO at Wolf Trap tonight. Occasional slight breeze but sticky night.
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