All Activity

MRV trying to play catch up this afternoon as clouds move out.

What a messy setup. Funny how the setup yesterday was quietly a lot cleaner, despite shear/dynamics being not as impressive...

Connecticut River valley for the win. Glad I don't live there.

First round quickly converted over to anvil rain on approach. Let's see what round 2 does.

The Triangle, Triad, and neighboring S VA was the only area in the entire SE to notably worsen as the rest of the SE either was unchanged or improved vs last week’s map.

Looks like the rain yesterday has boosted surface dews a bit. Helps to offset the fact that air temperatures aren't climbing really into the 90s.

Channeling my inner Wiz right now...All this heat and dews and/or summer cancel talk is boring, are we getting t-storms tonight or not?

So we really still going to see storms fire off today?

Looking to be more of a flash flood event for Chicago versus severe at this point. Not feeling confident for severe later.

dewing the dew with a 77 dew!

Steamy out there

Yup.. sucks lol. Working outside now sucks. Oh well. Better then being stuck in an office building.

Concord River in Billerica is very, very low. Signs of the drought

Chicago NWS Izzi CAM guidance remains very aggressive with a strongly unstable and rather large warm/unstable sector ahead of the cold front, though most CAMs do not seem to be handling the current size/magnitude of the MCS and associated cold pool well. Recent observational trends raise significant questions about how realistic the CAM depictions are. Certainly, given the magnitude of the forcing, we feel that at least some moderate destabilization will occur and likely support a strongly forced QLCS developing along the cold front this afternoon and spreading into northern IL this evening. Magnitude of the recovery and subsequent destabilization across northern IL is somewhat unclear ahead of this QLCS, but given the strong forcing and unseasonably strong deep and low level shear, there could a damaging wind and QLCS tornado threat even with somewhat modest instability. Should recovery and instability be more significant, like many CAMS show, then potential would increase for a derecho/QLCS tornado threat this evening. We will be closely monitoring observational trends this afternoon.

Great to hear the news, @Ian!! Will be supporting anyway I can and would love to chat in person sometime. Feel free to stop by more!

Moderate nudged south some? Riding the Bloomington/Pontiac/Kankakee corridor

Mostly tho really annoying summer cold...

Finally feels like summer.

Nice! I know our severe wx expert Jeff Halverson uses the site a lot -- he is always posting it in Slack. It does seem to be going well so far... kinda weird but should be fun.

I installed one yesterday and the other this morning.

what the

Yea our June’s have been so incredibly warm recently that our collective bias is +5

91 and steamy.

Mesoscale Discussion 1087 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026 Areas affected...western Pennsylvania...eastern Ohio...western Maryland...north-central Virginia...and much of West Virginia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 111627Z - 111830Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm coverage is anticipated across the region through early afternoon. The main risk will be severe wind gusts, and perhaps some hail. A severe thunderstorm watch may be warranted to cover these threats. DISCUSSION...Amidst a relatively zonal (if not slightly ridged) upper-air pattern, a subtle impulse is noted in water vapor imagery over western Lake Erie and central OH as of 1600z. Associated mesoscale ascent is contributing to increasing mid-level cloudiness in the area. Closer to the surface, diurnal heating and warm, moist advection with southwesterly surface flow is driving temperatures and dewpoints into the low-/mid- 80s and 70s F, respectively. The 12z PIT (Pittsburgh, PA) sounding showed steeper lapse rates around 1-3 km AGL (up to around 7 C/km) that decrease with height, and bulk shear around 20-25 kts. Over the next couple of hours, this modest westerly shear should persist as the mid-level impulse moves through. Associated forcing and diurnal destabilization should yield scattered thunderstorm development through the early afternoon. Relatively large CAPE values (around 2000+ J/kg) will support some downbursts/severe wind gusts with any stronger cores or merging outflows. The moist environment and weaker-shear regime should temper the hail threat, but some hail cannot be ruled out. ..Flournoy/Gleason.. 06/11/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...CLE..