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My outdoor table

Oh, we are gonna get Viener-ed alright.

Very snowy 06z gfs run

We got whacked with over a foot overnight, the stake is now up to 34” including compaction

Holy fuck. I said as a joke but we got more than a foot and it’s still snowing. Stake up to 34”

Maybe this is where the mismatch is for me, personally. March is meteorological spring, so in my mind, any snow there isn't part of a winter expectation for me and only counts as bonus points.

Well yeah met winter ends March 1 so we got about 2 weeks left.

I’d say deep winter is over. But not winter itself.

The earth's output is not constant. Instead It is modulated by ENSO. More radiation out during El Nino when the atmosphere is relatively warm and less during La Nina when the atmosphere is cool. Similarly the global surface temperature is modulated by ENSO, the earth's surface is warmer during el nino. Note that the climate system is dominated by the ocean and the rise in ocean temperature is steadier than the global surface temperature. There is also some variation in solar output over the 11-year solar cycle. If you take an 11-year average of global surface temperatures (below) most of the enso and solar variability is removed. Leaving mainly man-made forcing and a small volcano contribution.

Added about 1/2” with squall last night.

You can bank on both of those GFS storms verifying as I am flying out to Vegas on the 22nd and coming back the 27th.

I don't think we're "done" however, no epicosy for February for sure. Will March have a stretch that that dash hopes of an early spring for Torchy the Tiger... stay tuned

The ECMWF-AIFS is moving into it s high-skill range, where it continues to outperform the non-AI guidance. It continues to show very little prospect for the kind of occasional snowy solution that has popped up from time to time on some of the guidance. At 500 mb, its map tells the story about the low probability of phasing. The northern energy is well in front of the southern energy. This limits the risk of interaction, much less phasing. Not surprisingly, the other guidance now appears to be in line with the AIFS, with none showing a snowy solution for the NYC area. If one looks at the EPS ensembles, 16% showed 6" or more snow and fewer than 6% of members showed 10" or more snow during the 2/12 0z cycle vs. the respective 22% and 12% during the 2/11 0z cycle (in which the operational ECMWF showed a phased solution). Although it's premature to suggest that precipitation, should it arrive, cannot start as a little snow, sleet or mixed precipitation, the idea of a phased solution with significant snowfall appears unlikely. As has been the case much of this winter, should that outcome verify, the ECMWF-AIFS will again have led the way at an impressive lead time. Finally, the ECMWF-AIFS map 36 hours later shows a distinct failure to phase.

Winter looks done

Currently sitting at 28 degrees this morning, which is not bad. The sad, and infuriating part for me, is that it appears that there will be no temperature rise today. Ugh... To add insult to injury for this warmanista, after two early shift Fogelsville deliveries, I get to go up into the tundra that is Hazleton. That god-forsaken place that has an entirely different winter climate than most other places in Eastern PA.

@CAPE Storm is back??

Snow depth at 1500ft is up to 45” again for the second time this season. Keeps snowing.

All those were historical winters: 2009-2010 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.4 2.1 36.9 T 0.0 0.0 0.0 51.4 2010-2011 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 20.1 36.0 4.8 1.0 T 0.0 0.0 61.9 2014-2015 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 16.9 13.6 18.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 50.3

GFS pops a fantasy storm Day 10. All I take that to mean is it’s not a shutout pattern.

It’s over and we slowly melt. Winter is winding down.