The Iceman Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 And why not? It is the only global model that has been relatively consistent throughout the entire period leading up to the storm. With the exception of some of the thermal profiles, the Euro has been fairly consistent with its solution. The Canadian has also been consistent until its recent runs when it has now shifted towards the Euro. oh I agree, i said the euro is the way to go right now, was just pointing out that it looks like a slightly colder run of the euro to a T. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawxworld Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Safe for what...QPF or snow? I think you stand a MUCH better chance of getting more snow than me. I might have more precip, but I like where you are at for snowfall. Just my 2 cents. I really don't think anyone is safe at this point per the american models. We could easily get 10" snow to cold/dry conditions mid week. These models are just all over the place. I don't have a good feeling at all about this one especially with the way the season has been going pushing everything east it seems and we have always been on the western fringe. Let's see what the 12z GFS has to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Looking at DT's map, I'm in the 6" to 12" zone...of course, I'm only about 15 miles from his dreaded "C" zone... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 anyone see what Horst is thinking so far? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 anyone see what Horst is thinking so far? nothing yet but he should have a discussion out sometime today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I really don't think anyone is safe at this point per the american models. We could easily get 10" snow to cold/dry conditions mid week. These models are just all over the place. I don't have a good feeling at all about this one especially with the way the season has been going pushing everything east it seems and we have always been on the western fringe. Let's see what the 12z GFS has to say. Fair enough, you could be right. I just think this storm will be different, and not because I know anything, I really don't. I've been listening to a lot of mets the past few days whom I have a ton of respect for that our saying this baby is coming up the coast. They are using meteorology, not model hugging. Guys like Joe Lundberg, Paul Knight from Weather World, etc. I just have learned over the years to trust them. Could they be wrong, and the GFS score the coup, sure. I just have a feeling this one's coming, but we'll see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scummyratguy Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Horst wrote the blurb on the Campus Weather site and his wording does not instill confidence http://www.atmos.millersville.edu/~cws/mu-forecast.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Safe for what...QPF or snow? I think you stand a MUCH better chance of getting more snow than me. I might have more precip, but I like where you are at for snowfall. Just my 2 cents. He's a Negative Nancy, just like Colin was in the Lehigh Valley. If Earthlight, am19psu, and few other knowledgeable folks think DT's map is reasonable at this stage of the game, then I think we have decent shot at a nice event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 RGEMs are good for southern areas but screw over you guys to the north. :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 He's a Negative Nancy, just like Colin was in the Lehigh Valley. If Earthlight, am19psu, and few other knowledgeable folks think DT's map is reasonable at this stage of the game, then I think we have decent shot at a nice event. Seasonal trends. That is all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Good Morning everyone... Here are my morning lows from the past 3 mornings: Sat: 6.4° Sun: 7.4° Mon: 1.2° Was hoping to get into the minus numbers but not this go'round. Regardless of how much snow we get with this next storm the GFS keeps showing that we get cold blast after cold blast right through the end of the 15-day runs. If we do get a decent snowfall then I would bet that we will drop below zero with any of the upcoming blasts. ---Stephen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerplunk Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Got down to -7.6 in State College (Toftrees) this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 GFS looks better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 GFS looks better. Yes it does. The precip shield is considerably west. A few more runs with west trends (at least wrt precip coverage) and we all might do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I read western QPF is extended but can't read maps. Supposedly colder. It according to NYC thread buries CT and parts of LI. That would mean it is a glancing blow to C PA right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawxworld Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 GFS looks much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Man the models are terrible! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Man the models are terrible! lol your just waking up..get some caffine ya..they;ll start looking better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 your just waking up..get some caffine ya..they;ll start looking better lol. The Nam is the worst model ever. Anyways got down to 2 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 gfs trended big time towards the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Good Morning everyone... Here are my morning lows from the past 3 mornings: Sat: 6.4° Sun: 7.4° Mon: 1.2° Was hoping to get into the minus numbers but not this go'round. Regardless of how much snow we get with this next storm the GFS keeps showing that we get cold blast after cold blast right through the end of the 15-day runs. If we do get a decent snowfall then I would bet that we will drop below zero with any of the upcoming blasts. ---Stephen Hey Stephen, Not sure if it was mentioned here but Wink 104 reported a temp of -1 this AM. Not sure where they get their readings from. Sorry you did not make it at your place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 UKMET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawxworld Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 UKMET That is nice for these parts. Heavy Wet Snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Has the ukmet come west? cant recall last run.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Has the ukmet come west? cant recall last run.... Yes last run the precip only clipped the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 From JB "So I like the 3- to 6-inch amounts from D.C. to NYC, with 12 northwest of the cities. I think heavy snows spread back west all the way to what is becoming the I-99 corridor from W.Va. to New York, but if you want an interstate axis that sees heaviest snows in the mid-Atlantic, it's more 81 than 95 in this case" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 From JB "So I like the 3- to 6-inch amounts from D.C. to NYC, with 12 northwest of the cities. I think heavy snows spread back west all the way to what is becoming the I-99 corridor from W.Va. to New York, but if you want an interstate axis that sees heaviest snows in the mid-Atlantic, it's more 81 than 95 in this case" I know it's JB, but this is starting to get interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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