Atomixwx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 <br />They are right - look at it's geographic regions. The Susky Valkey is a minor part.<br /><br /><br /><br />^^ This. It's probably time to just bring an office into Middletown, and have them cover Dauphin, Cumberland, York, Adams, Lanc, Lebanon, Perry, Northumberland, and Berks counties. Let State College handle the area closer to them, and let Mt Holly focus on far-eastern PA and the rest of their territory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I am hugging the 12z JMA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Weve been more than patient over the yrs. I know we def have, if anyone needs a 12"+ storm its north central PA, but ya know I could sit here and bi*ch til the cows come home but it isn't going to do me any good Where are you from? Hopefully this area can get something going in Feb or Mar, just get a dif pattern going would be nice. For the mean time I'm willing to share with those in central pa because they need it to. I'm trying to think realistically when the last time we saw a 12"+ storm, I honestly can't remember, I'm thinking 2003-04 but not sure, anybody have a clue? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The models seems to be having some huge issues. Namely GFS and NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Laughable at best. Convective feedback huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I know we def have, if anyone needs a 12"+ storm its north central PA, but ya know I could sit here and bi*ch til the cows come home but it isn't going to do me any good Where are you from? Hopefully this area can get something going in Feb or Mar, just get a dif pattern going would be nice. For the mean time I'm willing to share with those in central pa because they need it to. I'm trying to think realistically when the last time we saw a 12"+ storm, I honestly can't remember, I'm thinking 2003-04 but not sure, anybody have a clue? I don't think you got the early Feb storm last year, did you? We got 13 in State College. Way I look at it, our best shot at a big storm is Feb/Mar, so we have two months of shots at storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 So random. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I don't think you got the early Feb storm last year, did you? We got 13 in State College. Way I look at it, our best shot at a big storm is Feb/Mar, so we have two months of shots at storms. no, well not in shinglehouse anyways, I was in state college that semester. I know for a fact we haven't the past 4 years, after that I'm not 100% sure, seems like we normally get the 7-11" type storms, never really "blockbuster" events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcfox1 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 <br /><br /><br /> ^^ This. It's probably time to just bring an office into Middletown, and have them cover Dauphin, Cumberland, York, Adams, Lanc, Lebanon, Perry, Northumberland, and Berks counties. Let State College handle the area closer to them, and let Mt Holly focus on far-eastern PA and the rest of their territory. Used to be that way, They shut down the Harrisburg office and moved it to State College. They said it would save money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 What the heck did the 18z GFS just do?!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I know we def have, if anyone needs a 12"+ storm its north central PA, but ya know I could sit here and bi*ch til the cows come home but it isn't going to do me any good Where are you from? Hopefully this area can get something going in Feb or Mar, just get a dif pattern going would be nice. For the mean time I'm willing to share with those in central pa because they need it to. I'm trying to think realistically when the last time we saw a 12"+ storm, I honestly can't remember, I'm thinking 2003-04 but not sure, anybody have a clue? Looking at the records and maps CTP has on their site, looks like at least parts of Potter County had at least 12" on these dates: March 4-6, 2001: 12-15" February 3, 2004: 9-13" February 13-14, 2007: 14" March 16, 2007: 9.5-15" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 What the heck did the 18z GFS just do?!? Dumps massive snows from the upper level low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 There is nothing 'feedback' wise wrong with the GFS. It is displaying the heavier precipitation associated with the movement of the upper level low through the region on the back side of the low. This ULL then rapidly explodes to our northeast with a CCB over New England and New York City. I just cannot believe we are dealing with a sharp cutoff again!!!!!!!!!!! The pattern definitely looked like it favored a western storm track, but models are definitely converging with the heavier QPF to our west and possibly heavier snows; unbelievable. Sorry rant over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Looking at the records and maps CTP has on their site, looks like at least parts of Potter County had at least 12" on these dates: March 4-6, 2001: 12-15" February 3, 2004: 9-13" February 13-14, 2007: 14" March 16, 2007: 9.5-15" ok that makes sense, but If my memory serves right, i believe we had 12" and 10" in order for both the 2007 storms but nothing major sence, I believe our biggest storm here was the 2001 storm we had over 12"+ but nothing since Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Dumps massive snows from the upper level low. Where? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Where? South central and SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 South central and SE. That doesn't look like a "massive amount of snow"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 ok that makes sense, but If my memory serves right, i believe we had 12" and 10" in order for both the 2007 storms but nothing major sence, I believe our biggest storm here was the 2001 storm we had over 12"+ but nothing since climatologically speaking it takes a rare path or strength from a LP to provide this area with over 16" because you usually need a track between harrisburg and philadelphia and that rarely happens. The last massive storm to provide over 16" I think was the superstorm of 93' . People just need to realize central pa especially northern pa isn't going to see the massive storms that form along the eastcoast because its just not climatologically favorable it seems like, I could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 GFS is good for MDT / east and Allentown south. Anyone west of MDT and/or north of ABE gets screwed with the GFS. MDT sees 4-8, PHL sees 8-12, NYC sees 12-16 or so. West of MDT it's a very tight 0-4 gradient it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 GFS is good for MDT / east and Allentown south. Anyone west of MDT and/or north of ABE gets screwed with the GFS. MDT sees 4-8, PHL sees 8-12, NYC sees 12-16 or so. West of MDT it's a very tight 0-4 gradient it appears. And of course I live north of ABE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 GFS is good for MDT / east and Allentown south. Anyone west of MDT and/or north of ABE gets screwed with the GFS. MDT sees 4-8, PHL sees 8-12, NYC sees 12-16 or so. West of MDT it's a very tight 0-4 gradient it appears. Be careful with those amounts for PHL and NYC. They mix quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Be careful with those amounts for PHL and NYC. They mix quite a bit. Oops, thank you. I don't have temps, should have clarified. Man, I hope the GFS is still about 80 miles east. I haven't broken double-digit snow yet but guys north and n/w of me need some loving too. This doesn't help them much at all. Should also point out this is basically a two-storm event. A little storm before the big event later on according to the GFS and NAM to an extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 GFS is good for MDT / east and Allentown south. Anyone west of MDT and/or north of ABE gets screwed with the GFS. MDT sees 4-8, PHL sees 8-12, NYC sees 12-16 or so. West of MDT it's a very tight 0-4 gradient it appears. Not true. NW it's tight west and WSW is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Be careful with those amounts for PHL and NYC. They mix quite a bit. Someone mentioned we could see a bigger CCB because we have an Atlantic/GOM hookup. Do you think this is true? If so we could see more precip spreading west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Not true. NW it's tight west and WSW is good. Really? Did I completely misread the map? Apologies if I did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Someone mentioned we could see a bigger CCB because we have an Atlantic/GOM hookup. Do you think this is true? If so we could see more precip spreading west. RGEM's is pretty huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Someone mentioned we could see a bigger CCB because we have an Atlantic/GOM hookup. Do you think this is true? If so we could see more precip spreading west. Honestly, that is not my specialty. I am a tropical guy first and a synoptician second. When we start having to get down to those level of mesoscale details, I'm a model hugger like everyone else. Sorry I can't be more help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Really? Did I completely misread the map? Apologies if I did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Honestly, that is not my specialty. I am a tropical guy first and a synoptician second. When we start having to get down to those level of mesoscale details, I'm a model hugger like everyone else. Sorry I can't be more help. It's OK. I'm sure someone out there has the answer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 It's OK. I'm sure someone out there has the answer. It should be a bit more expanse than what the 18z GFS has. Probably running inside of the higher 700 rh through PA from AFJ to AVP: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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