kerplunk Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Watched Weather World tonight and Paul Knight seemed to think the little low moving through now is destroying the high pressure needed for a decent potent storm with the Wednesday storm. Sounds like maybe he's just going by basic patterns needed for a good snowstorm here rather than hugging the models. What a novel idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 When does CTP look at anything? they'll be sure to do a long disco about a flood threat ten days out though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 Watched Weather World tonight and Paul Knight seemed to think the little low moving through now is destroying the high pressure needed for a decent potent storm with the Wednesday storm. Sounds like maybe he's just going by basic patterns needed for a good snowstorm here rather than hugging the models. What a novel idea. this has been modeled for days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 they'll be sure to do a long disco about a flood threat ten days out though Ya lol. They love those floods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Hmm seems like the models are already lacking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scummyratguy Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 iceman are you a met major at millersville? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scummyratguy Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 goooooood comparison. thus why kerplunk has validity. people with their noses buried in what the exact qpf for each model run need to pay attention to that other factor: reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 iceman are you a met major at millersville? I can't answer that, but he's a fellow flyers fan! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 iceman are you a met major at millersville? ex met major didn't like the job outlooks in the field(pay, having to move pretty much wherever) and switched after I had completed one of the hardest math courses GIS/environmental geography major now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 I can't answer that, but he's a fellow flyers fan! hoping this is finally the year! and to keep this post weather related...the 00z nam has initialized! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 SREFs are more or less unchanged from the last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 hoping this is finally the year! and to keep this post weather related...the 00z nam has initialized! The heck with the weather... let's talk about them having the best record in the league!!!!!! Ok..... 21z sref look pretty good for southern and eastern pa, basically dividing the state sw-ne with at least adv snowfall, maybe more from about the pike southward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The heck with the weather... let's talk about them having the best record in the league!!!!!! Ok..... 21z sref look pretty good for southern and eastern pa, basically dividing the state sw-ne with at least adv snowfall, maybe more from about the pike southward. Southern PA is about .7-.9" Goes .1" for first 4 3hrs periods .4" then .25" twice. for .5" = .7-.9" or so. around 9:1 ratios i'd say 6-8" looks like a good possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 If you want to get the individual member snow amounts, here is SPC's plume page http://www.spc.nssl.noaa.gov/exper/sref/plume/ I'll be long in bed by the time it updates for 21z, though. It usually takes 1-2 hrs to get the new runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 0z nam.... a few changes early on compared to 12z..... kicker is a bit slower and but also a bit stronger energy that we're waiting for is a tad stronger as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 If you want to get the individual member snow amounts, here is SPC's plume page http://www.spc.nssl....per/sref/plume/ I'll be long in bed by the time it updates for 21z, though. It usually takes 1-2 hrs to get the new runs. thx! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 by hour 18, kicker is weaker than at hour 30 on 12z. might be good later in the run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 by hour 18, kicker is weaker than at hour 30 on 12z. might be good later in the run... Heights seem higher and the vort is north as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scummyratguy Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 thanks for the pbp here guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 ULL on nam is very strong this run so far. Everything is north of last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 ULL on nam is very strong this run so far. Everything is north of last run. yep, i'm liking the look so far...should be a better run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Our vort hasn't closed off yet, it's north but just cruising right in opened up. Kicker has closed off behind, creating some "breathing room" for our storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 It's now closed at hr 36, precip about 100mi north of 12z@48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 18z/48: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_700_048l.gif 0z/42: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_700_042l.gif I need say no more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Epic 00z run of the NAM!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Double low again, NAM? Loltastic. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_pcp_054l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I think I get near a foot this run lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jen2swt Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Hello Momma Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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