Storm Clouds Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 So this is not going to start tomorrow night then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Come to think of it, are we that well behaved we don't require a mod? edit: never mind, i see the enforcer...thank you sir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 So this is not going to start tomorrow night then? Nope. Wed afternoon /evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Man the Nam is terrible. haha. What is wrong with that model lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Eric Horst is not liking a snowstorm for us (unless he is being ALTRA-CONSERVATIVE right now): "Anyway, here's how I see things as of Monday morning. Tonight's clipper will wipe out the Arctic air, thus leaving us with a marginal temperature profile (for snow) as the southern storm approaches. I do expect a storm track to our south and east, not inland as many people where advertising the past few days. Lancaster will likely be on the northwestern fringe of the steady precipitation Wednesday afternoon and night. While the storm could still stay east and miss us, I feel there's about a 70% chance it will track close enough to the coast to give us a period of steady precipitation. Given this set up, I'd expect a wintry mix of snow/sleet/rain at onset; however, cold air will get pulled into the storm (and be generated dynamically) such that precipitation could turn to all snow. If this scenario pans out, we'd would get at least a few inches of accumulation. A track farther east would, of course, mean little or no precip in the Lancaster area. I should be able to nail this down on Tuesday morning, so check back then for an update." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 Man the Nam is terrible. haha. What is wrong with that model lately. the NAM is terrible every winter out beyond 48 hours. i've rarely seen it be right past then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I don't see how this makes any since. lol. Upper level looks good but, surface who knows what the heck it is doing. Can we get rid of the Nam? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maeve Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Brotherly love Don't forget us sisters! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 Eric Horst is not liking a snowstorm for us (unless he is being ALTRA-CONSERVATIVE right now): "Anyway, here's how I see things as of Monday morning. Tonight's clipper will wipe out the Arctic air, thus leaving us with a marginal temperature profile (for snow) as the southern storm approaches. I do expect a storm track to our south and east, not inland as many people where advertising the past few days. Lancaster will likely be on the northwestern fringe of the steady precipitation Wednesday afternoon and night. While the storm could still stay east and miss us, I feel there's about a 70% chance it will track close enough to the coast to give us a period of steady precipitation. Given this set up, I'd expect a wintry mix of snow/sleet/rain at onset; however, cold air will get pulled into the storm (and be generated dynamically) such that precipitation could turn to all snow. If this scenario pans out, we'd would get at least a few inches of accumulation. A track farther east would, of course, mean little or no precip in the Lancaster area. I should be able to nail this down on Tuesday morning, so check back then for an update." right here in Lancaster is an extremely tough forecast for this event...if temps are a degree or 2 colder than progged were talking all snow 6-10 inches, but could also see a mixed bag of wtf to 2-4" of snow. i don't envy anyone who has to make a call for here. and Eric is being conservative for good reason because if he talks up a major snowstorm, there is a good chance he could bust around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 I don't see how this makes any since. lol. Upper level looks good but, surface who knows what the heck it is doing. Can we get rid of the Nam? why is it every time I watch the NAM come out I find myself doing this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawxworld Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 why is it every time I watch the NAM come out I find myself doing this It does seem to me that the models are consistant on advertsing the second bulk of precip that will be hitting our area. Not the costal precip but that 2nd batch it develops to the west that will than run SW to NE. SREFs were doing the same at around hour 57. Not sure I see anything different in the NAM through 54 right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 18z NAM is closer to 6z run than it is for 12 or 0z, but the precip is a little further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Here is what is wrong with the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 It does seem to me that the models are consistant on advertsing the second bulk of precip that will be hitting our area. Not the costal precip but that 2nd batch it develops to the west that will than run SW to NE. SREFs were doing the same at around hour 57. Not sure I see anything different in the NAM through 54 right now. i know what you are talking about but that bulk of precip is still associated with the coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawxworld Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 i know what you are talking about but that bulk of precip is still associated with the coastal. it still misses us on this run. I hope Easternuswx is right in regard to the low placement. With no real block in place why would it be forced east like this? You would think it would ride up the coast but the model is being too progressive right now. I really thought the NAM would be better by now hours 48-60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Virtually no models agree with the NAM with the low placement. That's why CTP threw it out this morning completely and most mets in the PHL thread said it's not worth its time since it's missing the most important piece of this puzzle. Watch the damn thing end up being right. Wouldn't that be something? BTW, what's up with the trend this year for EVERY STORM to slow down by at least 24 hours between days 3-4? We've not been hit by many of them at all, but they've all been slowed down by a day or two within 4 days. A weird wrinkle to this winter for sure. EDIT: Actually looked at the NAM. It's coming around slowly. It's got a lot of cold air with it this run and is better than it has been for the most part. I imagine the 18z GFS will go crazy too only to come back to its reality at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 it still misses us on this run. I hope Easternuswx is right in regard to the low placement. With no real block in place why would it be forced east like this? You would think it would ride up the coast but the model is being too progressive right now. I really thought the NAM would be better by now hours 48-60. he is right about the low placement...the nam is just simply otl for this storm...it isn't the first time it's happened either, i think it had me getting like 1-3 inches last year 24 hours out of feb 5-6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 the thing to look out for now is to see if a trend for cooler temps develop as it has in almost every other event this year...if they trend cooler at 00z, i think mixing will be a lot less likely or shorter duration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The low placement(s) are out of whack like easternus said. Look at the sref mean Probably much closer to reality. Id watch this over the nam until tomorrow's 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The NAM is still for the lulz only. I think its higher resolution is why it gets double lows so often. And then that screws up the solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 why is it every time I watch the NAM come out I find myself doing this Heck it's just not the Nam. All the models have had their moments this season. Adam Thanks for your help this past week!! I think we get so many hours tied up watching these silly models. Sometimes we tend to forget it's just a hobby. I like the fact we have a good bunch of people in here!! And were pretty laid back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The NAM is still for the lulz only. I think its higher resolution is why it gets double lows so often. And then that screws up the solution. Yeah, it really does have to do with convective feedback here. Latent heat release causes low pressure to form away from the upper support and it screws up the solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 6z 84hr & 18z 72hr loop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 6z 84hr & 18z 72hr loop More like 6Z 12Z 18Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scummyratguy Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 new state college point and click for my area has first mention of snow/rain mix. Probably quite accurate. I like where The lower and middle susquehanna valley falls into this storm. close enough to the heavy precip and getting cold enough to have a fair amount be snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 CTP's new disco is a joke. Pretty sure GFS and Euro a not minor for Central. OPERATIONAL ECMWF/GFS BASICALLY IN LINE NOW WITH LOW TRACKINGNORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND OFF THE MD/DE/NJ COASTWHICH LOOKS TO KEEP EVENT FAIRLY MINOR FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL PA.BIGGEST THREAT CONTINUES TO BE ACROSS SE HALF OF CWA...WITH AREAEAST OF SUSQ RIVER AT HIGHEST RISK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I was just looking at the CMC and the clipper this weekend looks to bring us some snow. http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 They are right - look at it's geographic regions. The Susky Valkey is a minor part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 BTW, NOAA is flying planes into this storm overnight and first model runs with that data will be 12z tomorrow. I'd basically ignore any models prior to then at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scummyratguy Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 <br />They are right - look at it's geographic regions. The Susky Valkey is a minor part.<br /><br /><br /><br />Righto!! However, I think it is worded clumsily. Sort of implies that the threat itself is minor, when in fact a 6 or 8 inch snowfall would have a significant impact on a "small" portion of their forecast area.... not to split hairs on a 48 hour threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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