Voyager Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Wouldn't mind seeing it nudge just a bit more west, but really can't complain about this depiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 From JB "So I like the 3- to 6-inch amounts from D.C. to NYC, with 12 northwest of the cities. I think heavy snows spread back west all the way to what is becoming the I-99 corridor from W.Va. to New York, but if you want an interstate axis that sees heaviest snows in the mid-Atlantic, it's more 81 than 95 in this case" Larger context from which the above was quoted - "I have no changes to my ideas on this storm. I believe that the GFS will be forced to continue to correct west. The Euro ensembles are farther west than its own operational this morning, but a track inside Hatteras to over the Delmarva, then just east of ACY to Cape Cod by Thursday morning (the storm is west of CHS Wednesday morning) is the idea. Of the other two big storms in NYC, this will have a track the farthest west... ....There are some real problems with the storm, not just the modeling, which somehow can't figure out that the northern stream is going to anchor this enough to pull it up farther west (actually the Canadian does, and is more in line with my thinking now, but it was a bit east yesterday). The problem seems to be with modeling trying to drop heights all over... it collapses heights from the northwest to the northeast of the storm faster than it should, and this tries to allow the escape. Given the ridging off the East Coast, this is not likely, and a stronger farther west correction is likely to the U.S. model with time. Again, it's stepping that way. ...The air mass coming from the northwest is NOT arctic, and so the cold side of the storm may have to work to cool enough for the big snows in the cities. It will certainly be the warmest of the other two events of this genre... of course, D.C. and BWI are still saying what two events?... ...So I like the 3- to 6-inch amounts from D.C. to NYC, with 12 northwest of the cities. I think heavy snows spread back west all the way to what is becoming the I-99 corridor from W.Va. to New York, but if you want an interstate axis that sees heaviest snows in the mid-Atlantic, it's more 81 than 95 in this case (probably 78 gets in there, up until it reaches 287 in N.J.)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 We've been seeing an overall west trend (as usual) in the GFS. Last week I thought that Sunday night would be the run that started to lock on to a solution, that looks like today's 12z instead. The ensembles have been much further west, and it will be interesting to see them today. I would imagine this could potentially move another 50 miles west once to hour 54. The euro and gem (as we know) has been rather consistent, with the gem too wrapped up at times. My first guess would have the following QPF boundaries: .25 from AFJ-IDI-AVP .5" line from Bedford to MDT to Bethlehem .75 from LNS to EWR Hopefully the euro backs me up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 -3 last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 -3 last night. How bout those flyers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 12z ensembles are pretty good back here. 10 of 12 have a nice snow event. On to the Euro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 overnight temp -13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Wow got down to -22F at 7:35 this morning. I think we either tied the old record or beat it by 1F which Is impressive considering it was for 1970! To bad this storm isn't really going to affect me, good luck to you guys just south and east of me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 How bout those flyers? Is it playoff time yet? Keep worrying something stupid is going to happen that screws over our season. Wow got down to -22F at 7:35 this morning. I think we either tied the old record or beat it by 1F which Is impressive considering it was for 1970! To bad this storm isn't really going to affect me, good luck to you guys just south and east of me... Gotta wait for the NCDC records to update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Oswayo in Potter County had the lowest obsevered temp for PA i believe at -24F which is an extremely shelter valley just 6 miles to the SE or me. For my coop observations I use a davis vantage vue which are a great machine, thinkin bout upgrading to the pro, do any of you guys have a pro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Is it playoff time yet? Keep worrying something stupid is going to happen that screws over our season. We did well with Pronger out. This could very well be our year. We can beat anyone in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 We did well with Pronger out. This could very well be our year. We can beat anyone in the east. You can instantly see the improvement with him back. Without him they really struggled with the basics like clearing the puck out of the zone and keeping it out of the slot. Not so much since he's been back. Time to bring the cup home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 EURO has begun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Yeah, yeah it's Henry but... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 UK hit south central PA hard. North central missed out on the best part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 hr36...weaker low, more + tilt. This may not be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 This is going east...hr42 still has a + tilt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 UK hit south central PA hard. North central missed out on the best part. The Cape May sweet spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 hr48...1008 low over ECGA. Light precip to the PA turnpike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 hr54...1000 75 miles west of Cape Fear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 hr60...996 over Norfolk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Oh god. Your killing me Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 hr60...996 over Norfolk. are you getting qpf too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I'd say for the first time, we have a consensus building amongst the Euro/GEM/UKMet with the GFS a hair farther east. It's looking like I-81 and east, including the Poconos and Lehigh Valley, are in for a decent hit, with more modest snows farther to the west. At least until 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Much further east. hr66 is >75 miles east of Lewes, DE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 are you getting qpf too? I'm just bringing in what I see in the PHL/NYC thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 hr72 988 over 40/70 CCB lines perfectly over I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 This run sounds decent. Hard to tell cause they only ever talk about I-95 and the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Sounds like the Euro is slight east is it??Well Congrats to you guys, hopefully you guys get pounded! I will just have to wait for my 12"+ storm, ahh someday I suppose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I-95 will have mixing problems. Even as far back as MDT, the surface goes above 32 for about a 6 hr period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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