Interstate Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 According to this... http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html it looks like maybe <5mm of liquid before changeover. Then 6-8hrs of crazy heavy snow. Verbatim with 10:1 ratios, this shows a band of 2-3"/hour snows. So does it look like that is going to be the ratio... 10:1... I know earlier in the week people were talking about 6:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 According to this... http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html it looks like maybe <5mm of liquid before changeover. Then 6-8hrs of crazy heavy snow. Verbatim with 10:1 ratios, this shows a band of 2-3"/hour snows. It's tough to tell with he GEM. It can have a warm bias too. I'd wait till the euro to finalize it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 this link will tell you hour-by-hour precip types and intensity for GGEM; it updates slowly http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html Wow according to that at 36 hours Baltimore is HAMMERED Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 this link will tell you hour-by-hour precip types and intensity for GGEM; it updates slowly http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html Already knew about it, but thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 this link will tell you hour-by-hour precip types and intensity for GGEM; it updates slowly http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html 23z begins the crushing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 We are really in the RGEM's range, not the GGEM's. The Canadian met service says to not even use the GGEM before 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 It's tough to tell with he GEM. It can have a warm bias too. I'd wait till the euro to finalize it. too much green over me, hope so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonjon Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Back to back clippers on Friday and Saturday on GFS. Shall we name them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwonder Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I find this very interesting as the TV mets predicted 6-10 in previous storms this past winter and we got nothing to a trace. Now, this morning (around 5am) they were saying mainly a rain event for DC and points south and east which could now give us more accumulating snow in these areas. I can only imagine what this does to state and local municipalites trying to plans at this LATE stage of the game. It is so difficult to predict weather for the MA region. BTW Tony Pann on WBAL was saying yesterday a jog east by 50 miles would bring us a snow event... To me, late is 12 or less hours prior to the event - 24 hours prior to the event will still give time for everyone to gather their bread, TP and spirit of choice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Snow accumulation has to do with so many esoteric factors like ground temp and snow crystal growth, etc... Regardless, you don't get too far from 10:1 ratios on either side in our region. In some really cold storms we might get 12:1 or possibly 15:1 in some real powder, but never really more than that. On the low side, I've seen 5-6:1 a couple times. Tomorrow we'll probably lose a little of the initial snow to melting, but it will cool the surface down enough that the rest will be pretty close to 10:1, IMO, when you average it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Snow accumulation has to do with so many esoteric factors like ground temp and snow crystal growth, etc... Regardless, you don't get too far from 10:1 ratios on either side in our region. In some really cold storms we might get 12:1 or possibly 15:1 in some real powder, but never really more than that. On the low side, I've seen 5-6:1 a couple times. Tomorrow we'll probably lose a little of the initial snow to melting, but it will cool the surface down enough that the rest will be pretty close to 10:1, IMO, when you average it out. agreed.. 10:1 is almost always a safe assumption Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Snow accumulation has to do with so many esoteric factors like ground temp and snow crystal growth, etc... Regardless, you don't get too far from 10:1 ratios on either side in our region. In some really cold storms we might get 12:1 or possibly 15:1 in some real powder, but never really more than that. On the low side, I've seen 5-6:1 a couple times. Tomorrow we'll probably lose a little of the initial snow to melting, but it will cool the surface down enough that the rest will be pretty close to 10:1, IMO, when you average it out. Agreed 100%, though areas right now the RaSn line may average 8:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 the state and cities don't rely on TV mets for their planning. they coordinate with private companies and the NWS. Exactly. County's OEM's and MEMA relies heavily on NWS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 12z GFS is a big fan of the DT Facebook Storm #2 for 3 Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 im starting to get worried about temps, big time. i'd be more worried about only having 5 posts to post for a big storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 TWC saying DC gets 2-5" , slight chance of 8+ (big difference if you ask me) NWS saying about 1" total here in Arlington, VA, updated at 12pm today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 so wait, i cant add my 2 cents? is that what I am reading? Temps have gotten better. When you make a comment like you did you come across as a troll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
insanegrenade Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Temps have gotten better. When you make a comment like you did you come across as a troll. Troll? Explain to me why a user who just says he seens green around him isn't much different from me saying I am worried about rain. People state opinions on here a lot. I am doing the same thing. Treat everyone equally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Anyone notice the temp/DP difference bisecting the area? Along and south of a line around Culpeper to Stafford, temp near 50 and DP lower 30's. North of that Upper 30's to near 40, DP in the lower 20's. Interesting feature to see if it moves north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Snow accumulation has to do with so many esoteric factors like ground temp and snow crystal growth, etc... Regardless, you don't get too far from 10:1 ratios on either side in our region. In some really cold storms we might get 12:1 or possibly 15:1 in some real powder, but never really more than that. On the low side, I've seen 5-6:1 a couple times. Tomorrow we'll probably lose a little of the initial snow to melting, but it will cool the surface down enough that the rest will be pretty close to 10:1, IMO, when you average it out. I wouldn't worry to much about initial snow melt. The ground temps are very close to freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 let's just all chill.. we've all weenied out the last 12 hours or so. temps are not as big a concern as they were but they are still a concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I wouldn't worry to much about initial snow melt. The ground temps are very close to freezing. It's nice that DC may not exactly get close to 50 today, but the ground will still take a bit of time to cool right when it starts snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
insanegrenade Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 let's just all chill.. we've all weenied out the last 12 hours or so. temps are not as big a concern as they were but they are still a concern. will do. I don't want to change the focus. It's all about the storm. I am super excited for the storm and I want all snow and no rain but I am stating what others have all day and night (they didn't get called names)......I am concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 It's nice that DC may not exactly get close to 50 today, but the ground will still take a bit of time to cool right when it starts snowing. Everything below the top .5-1cm of soil is good and frozen right now, but the very top of the ground and the grass definitely has a temperature cycle that is closer to the current atmospheric temp. It's very possible that the top of your car will have noticeably more snow than the grass and the grass way more than the street tomorrow evening. Heavy snowfall rates can overcome that though, by cooling off any surface really quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 will do. I don't want to change the focus. It's all about the storm. I am super excited for the storm and I want all snow and no rain but I am stating what others have all day and night (they didn't get called names)......I am concerned. there's definitely a double standard in some cases. we can try to minimize it but it will always be there. things have trended colder but in the city i'd be a little nervous still even if it looks like we're in for at least a mini thumping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 It's nice that DC may not exactly get close to 50 today, but the ground will still take a bit of time to cool right when it starts snowing. The ground is already cold considering the temps over last several days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 will do. I don't want to change the focus. It's all about the storm. I am super excited for the storm and I want all snow and no rain but I am stating what others have all day and night (they didn't get called names)......I am concerned. Last thing I'll say on the matter - Obviously temps are a concern but to make a comment after temps have improved a lot saying "I'm getting really worried about temps now" isn't warranted. I could see it if the temps had gotten worse but they have improved on guidance. As Wxtrix said - look at the insight all of the mets have been providing. If you are going to make a statement you need to have some scientific evidence to back it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I find this very interesting as the TV mets predicted 6-10 in previous storms this past winter and we got nothing to a trace. Now, this morning (around 5am) they were saying mainly a rain event for DC and points south and east which could now give us more accumulating snow in these areas. I can only imagine what this does to state and local municipalites trying to plans at this LATE stage of the game. Governments (and anyone with a clue) follow the National Weather Service and other professional Meteorological services, not Al Roker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 will do. I don't want to change the focus. It's all about the storm. I am super excited for the storm and I want all snow and no rain but I am stating what others have all day and night (they didn't get called names)......I am concerned. It is cool. I see reason for you concern, but as it stands now temps are looking better for the storm as temps have trended colder for storm than few days ago. For the area including DC there will be more snow than rain as it stands now. Just have to wait for the storm to get here and see how it performs. Just try and mix patience with your excitement and concern. Best of luck to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowden Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The ground is already cold considering the temps over last several days. I tend to agree here, it's was near sub-zero in some spots yesterday and has not broke freezing until today. How fast does the ground warm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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