gymengineer Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 its almost over by then with only .16" falling at BWI after 0Z Thursday these kinds of situations are crazy because the insane rates and UVV's will mix enough to make it colder than what the models now show (providing the UVV's are there) Pretty big differences among the models so far for what happens after 0Z Thursday in our area... RGEM is at least 0.4" more liquid and the NAM does the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Man, GFS is terribly close to all snow in Roanoke-- a little mix in the front, even some ZR-- And, always has a mix here-- temps fall to 31 over night and we get a light mix-- there is a warm surge right before the ULL pulls in, but once its cranking, it cools fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The big rain before snow idea is dead/dying. Agree...I'd say it's dead. Looks like light rain/snow mix to start in the late morning, going over to heavy snow by mid-afternoon. Does anybody have BUFKIT data for the airports? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 LWX updated their snow map. I want to know where they are pulling this information from? http://www.erh.noaa....wx/winterstorm/ Yeah, good point. The amounts don't interest me in that map, mainly because they usually don't verify, but the fact that it looks so specific, so precise with all the little variations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 So do we buy the earlier in and out of the GFS at this point or is it more likely to stretch into the night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 This is looking more and more like a mostly or all snow storm for most. The big rain before snow idea is dead/dying. Also another log on the fire that temps are modeled too warm 3 to 4 days out lots of times during this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Does anybody have BUFKIT data for the airports? I'll take a guess that it's about 93" for DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Woah 33 01/26 21Z 33 32 8 10 0.07 0.00 542 546 -1.8 -19.4 1005 100 SN 000OVC283 0.8 0.5 36 01/27 00Z 32 31 342 13 0.44 0.00 538 544 -3.6 -20.3 1007 100 SN 000OVC282 4.4 0.3 39 01/27 03Z 32 32 344 12 0.42 0.00 533 540 -4.8 -23.0 1008 100 SN 000OVC277 4.2 0.3 http://68.226.77.253...FC/NAM_Kdca.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Where I get my BUFKIT data: http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 http://68.226.77.253/text/NAMSFC/NAM_Kezf.txt 36 01/27 00Z 32 32 342 15 0.59 0.00 537 542 -3.3 -20.2 1007 100 +SN 000OVC278 5.9 0.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 heavy big fat wet conglomerate flakes A new weather term? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 BWI and DCA definitely need watches at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 If BWI is the coldest of all how is their changeover 2 hours after IAD?. There won't be a changeover at IAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 KMTN: 110127/0500Z 41 34013KT 32.4F SNOW 15:1| 0.8||11.0 0.051|| 0.77 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110127/0600Z 42 33011KT 32.9F SNOW 15:1| 0.1||11.1 0.004|| 0.78 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 81| 0| 19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I'll take a guess that it's about 93" for DCA. I expect 27:1 ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Watches are issued 36 hours from the event.. Since the changeover will come a few hours later at the areas not currently under a WSW, I'd expect something this afternoon. Come on guys, use some critical thinking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 BWI and DCA definitely need watches at this point. Not sure if you saw it, but Mt. Holly I think agrees with you. WSW down the eastern shore to nearly Cambridge. EDIT: But they may have different criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamHLG Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 BWI and DCA definitely need watches at this point. The watches are up and have been up for 2 hours! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 KMTN: 110127/0500Z 41 34013KT 32.4F SNOW 15:1| 0.8||11.0 0.051|| 0.77 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110127/0600Z 42 33011KT 32.9F SNOW 15:1| 0.1||11.1 0.004|| 0.78 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 81| 0| 19 That's the kind of thing I want to see. Can you post the whole profile for the 3 major airports? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 There won't be a changeover at IAD After reading the later posts i kind of figured that. It does not sound like much rain at BWI either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Colonel Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The watches are up and have been up for 2 hours! not for major cities... read plz. thx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesnowsknows Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Yeah, good point. The amounts don't interest me in that map, mainly because they usually don't verify, but the fact that it looks so specific, so precise with all the little variations. This map is embarrassing. Based on model guidance it's simply embarrassing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Watches are issued 36 hours from the event.. Since the changeover will come a few hours later at the areas not currently under a WSW, I'd expect something this afternoon. Come on guys, use some critical thinking You are splitting hairs. The changeover in Baltimore and DCA will take place around the same time it does elsewhere. LWX is being uber-cautious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesnowsknows Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Temps look colder than forecast today as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Yeah, good point. The amounts don't interest me in that map, mainly because they usually don't verify, but the fact that it looks so specific, so precise with all the little variations. That thing is a running joke. It is auto-generated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowden Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Check out this snow depth jump from from hours 33 to 36! 33 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Man, GFS is terribly close to all snow in Roanoke-- a little mix in the front, even some ZR-- And, always has a mix here-- temps fall to 31 over night and we get a light mix-- there is a warm surge right before the ULL pulls in, but once its cranking, it cools fast. You mean -FZRA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamHLG Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 not for major cities... read plz. thx You are correct sir. My bad. I saw my zone Northern Balt. Co. and stopped reading. That was selfish of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 That's the kind of thing I want to see. Can you post the whole profile for the 3 major airports? Thanks. Here's the links, rather than clutter the post with a bunch of data: KBWI - http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/cobb_nam/nam_kbwi.dat KDCA - http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/cobb_nam/nam_kdca.dat KIAD - http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/cobb_nam/nam_kiad.dat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 You are splitting hairs. The changeover in Baltimore and DCA will take place around the same time it does elsewhere. LWX is being uber-cautious. No, I'm looking at soundings. I'm quite positive it will be snowing out in Loudoun County several hours before it will be at DCA. Expect a WSW for the remainder of the area at 2pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.