Amped Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 good i guess that means no more posting for you If you're looking for me I'll be out getting a life. Wish me good luck, I'll miss yall. I might be back if things don't work out for me in that real wold (Or whatever it's called) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesnowsknows Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Well, many of us, including myself, were asking for this last night at this time when the GFS showed a Miller B that was only going to give us 3 to 5 inches of snow with up to a foot not far away on Pa border. We said we'd rather take our chances with a rain storm. NAM says = Wish granted. Although this contradicts my prediction of a non-snow solution, it is interesting when you loop the last NAM run. It appears that we the 0C line begins to draw in east as the storm comes in and may draw it east enough to switch to snow as it pulls away. It's very small irrational details like this that keep me tracking the storm. Very desperate at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Funny how people are making deterministic statements off of this run. NAM may be superior in thermal profiling but is it superior in track output? There is no way any distinctive forecast could be made off of this. The only thing reinforced by this run is that snow is unlikely. The 500 mb low going negative tilt along with the surface high scooting east offshore Delaware serve, at minimum, two mechanisms to ensure no meaningful snow near the big cities of the MA. Simply put, the NAM is advertising a heat pump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The 500 mb low going negative tilt along with the surface high scooting east offshore Delaware serve, at minimum, two mechanisms to ensure no meaningful snow near the big cities of the MA. Simply put, the NAM is advertising a heat pump. We are still confused. We need some more weird analogies to explain this NAM run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The 500 mb low going negative tilt along with the surface high scooting east offshore Delaware serve, at minimum, two mechanisms to ensure no meaningful snow near the big cities of the MA. Simply put, the NAM is advertising a heat pump. I really think, at the very least, we should wait till all the Oz runs come out before tossing out such statements. . Everything is far from certain. In past 24 hours, this board has swayed from a blizzard in Hagersterstown with heavy rain/snow mix in the cities, to a rain storm for all, to a glancing blow of snow but only if you are east of Dulles airport, , to a snowstorm for Norfolk and Ocean City but not us back here, to nothing for nobody on East Coast, and then back to a rain storm with snow only possible back in Pittsburgh. In other words, everyone on here should be very, very, very cautious about what they extrapolate from any one model run until at least tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I really think, at the very least, we should wait till all the Oz runs come out before tossing out such statements. . Everything is far from certain. In past 24 hours, this board has swayed from a blizzard in Hagersterstown with heavy rain/snow mix in the cities, to a rain storm for all, to a glancing blow of snow but only if you are east of Dulles airport, , to a snowstorm for Norfolk and Ocean City but not us back here, to nothing for nobody on East Coast, and then back to a rain storm with snow only possible back in Hagerstown. In other words, everyone on here should be very, very, very cautious about what they extrapolate from any one model run until at least tomorrow. Fixed http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_Khgr.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 In summary, we can get a snowstorm with the high offshore, PDII PDI 4 March 1960, and we can get a snowstorm with a low in the lakes 22 January 1987, but the two of them together aren't good. that actually makes sense, and might be your best post ever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I really think, at the very least, we should wait till all the Oz runs come out before tossing out such statements. You are waiting for 0Z runs for 01/24? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Garrett County kills with that track. I'm sure Phin won't object to putting us all up there for a day or two. OMG if i could find a place to crash near Wisp I would have the time of my life. Just got my new powder ski's today (Atomic Access) from Alpine Ski shop in Sterling. I have a personal reason why I would much rather have a driving rainstorm then OTS, at least with the driving rainstorm it is probably SHeeting snow out at TImberline and Wisp and I can get out there next weekend to enjoy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 OMG if i could find a place to crash near Wisp I would have the time of my life. Just got my new powder ski's today (Atomic Access) from Alpine Ski shop in Sterling. I have a personal reason why I would much rather have a driving rainstorm then OTS, at least with the driving rainstorm it is probably SHeeting snow out at TImberline and Wisp and I can get out there next weekend to enjoy it. They get snow no matter what. Even a big coastal will create a NW flow off the lakes and give them a few days of LES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 It is 4 degrees outside, a coastal is coming, and we are talking rain or slop. This winter makes me sick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Actually we don't know what we're getting. The 21Z sref were way east with the gfs, the euro was east. The 00Z nam west with the ggem. The 18Z gfs looked goofy and I doubt it's right but the nam may also not be right. I think an inland track makes a little more sense as there seems to be room for enough amplification for such a solution but that's just a guess and could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 They get snow no matter what. Even a big coastal will create a NW flow off the lakes and give them a few days of LES. Talked to a friend this week who was on the lake with his snow vehicle this past weekend. Deep ice. But synoptic snows are even better than the LES out that way. More water content, loads up the trees and forests. Great for hiking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notvirga! Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Fixed http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_Khgr.txt it looks like Winchester north gets some snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 It is 4 degrees outside, Cape Hatteras just had 6"+ of snow today, a coastal is coming, and we are talking rain or slop. This winter makes me sick. fixed for effect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 People are being a bit nuts over this storm. Calling for an OTS miss or an inland rainer and then claiming victory when a model shows the opposite is pretty silly. For those of you who are saying that this just reinforces the FACT that snow is unlikely need to...i don't know...there have been just as many snow solutions or OTS in the last 24 hrs as inland runners and rainstorms. Give it a break guys...its still 3 days out...and either the inland, coastal, or ots are still possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 PSU or someone just saw the EURO today for the first time. Looks like a great track and good Low. Why is the precip to the west so paltry? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Interesting stuff going on with the northern stream at 42 on the GFS. Wonder how - if at all - this will impact things in future frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 PSU or someone just saw the EURO today for the first time. Looks like a great track and good Low. Why is the precip to the west so paltry? Baroclinic made a really good post explaining that in detail a few pages back and he did it much more eloquently and in more detail then I could so I suggest you go back and read it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 OMG if i could find a place to crash near Wisp I would have the time of my life. Just got my new powder ski's today (Atomic Access) from Alpine Ski shop in Sterling. I have a personal reason why I would much rather have a driving rainstorm then OTS, at least with the driving rainstorm it is probably SHeeting snow out at TImberline and Wisp and I can get out there next weekend to enjoy it. I'll report back with conditions at Wisp when I'm there next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Im not a model expert, but looking at 42 hr on the GFS leads me to beleive it may be more amped like the NAM...maybe not as extreme, but yeah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I am a little buzzed right now, but I looked at the NAM first and was like YES!!! then came on here and read through the last few pages and was laughing my arse off. The NAM was a great run for this area and a pretty darn good one for DC and Baltimore also. The idea of a front end thump has been gone for a while now, temps in front are just not supportive. But the NAM is tracking that low ENE the last 6 hours and judging from the track of the H5 and H7 lows is about to pummel northern VA into Maryland with a changeover to heavy wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 big changes with the northern stream at 60 way less digging from it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I'll report back with conditions at Wisp when I'm there next weekend. if they get more then 15" of snow this week I will be somewhere out there next weekend myself. I am at my brothers in Reston right now, were going to Seven Springs tomorrow to enjoy the powder from a few days ago. Back to tequila shots!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 trough is much slower this run {further west) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Looks like it wants to come back inland... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 trough is much slower this run {further west) will the 2nd vort in S Canada catch up? I wonder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 GFS just joined the NAM in laughing at the folks worried about an OTS miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 inland so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 GFS just joined the NAM in laughing at the folks worried about an OTS miss. as long as it dont come too far inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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