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Next weeks Storm Threat and DT's Jan 21-22 Facebook threat


Ji

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While I maintain hope for cold and snow down here in the MA, I can't say I am disappointed. My expectations were never heightened. I cant speak for up north, but during the fall all I heard was La Nina La Nina with the general consensus that this winter would suck. And here we are...and it sucks. So things are playing out as expected in my mind. My only 'hope' is maybe just maybe ingredients would come together for a 24"+ storm. But prior to last year, it was PDII in 2003 since a true monster storm. So reality sucks as it usually does that it could be many years before another true blizzard level storm.

Or, it could be next month. That is why this 'stupid hobby' as Ian put it keeps me hooked every year.

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hard to argue against what we've already seen.. lots of cold but lots of stale cold. i guess we'll see.. there is still potential i guess but as you note keeps getting pushed back.

Ensembles are trying to bring the cold back into DCA... a risk of hitting the middle teens in the last week of Jan (per the GFS) or upper teens/lower 20s (per the ECMWF).

...about 5-10 degrees below normal, basically.

Oh God..won't be long before you start talking about sun angle :facepalm:

lulz.

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Ensembles are trying to bring the cold back into DCA... a risk of hitting the middle teens in the last week of Jan (per the GFS) or upper teens/lower 20s (per the ECMWF).

...about 5-10 degrees below normal, basically.

For lows or highs? For highs, that's pretty extreme. For lows, naso much.

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hard to argue against what we've already seen.. lots of cold but lots of stale cold. i guess we'll see.. there is still potential i guess but as you note keeps getting pushed back.

What's kind of funny is that it is only January 12th...seems like this winter has been going on for much longer. I guess the cold wasn't really supposed to come until mid month anyway so maybe it still will after the brief warmup....you know when we get our moisture

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gotta be lows given departures

Didn't see that at first. But, I just looked at the 2m temp loop of the 00z ensembles. Coldest temps in the entire 384hr are below -10C, with that isotherm through southern MD and south of DC. So, maybe -11 or -12? That would be low teens, so maybe 10 degrees below normal lows.

Is it just me, or does it seem really much much harder to get a -10 (or worse) temp departure than a +10? How often do we have lows in the mid 30s in January, if normal is mid 20s, compared to mid teens?

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It keeps showing up in the long range, but definitely is pushed back from when it first appeared on the models last week. The 06Z GFS run on 1/6 had these temps for MRB:

1/18 Hi of -4, low of -15

1/19 Hi of +2, low of -16

1/20 Hi of 12, low of -9

1/21 Hi of 20, low of +4

This morning's run has similar, though not as extreme cold, but not beginning until 1/22.

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Sunset is already after 5pm. We're losing lots of valuable nighttime snowfall!

sun angle is one of those things people have these hard fixed ideas on. to be honest, here i think it's probably an issue even at sun angle min. on dec 26 we werent sticking well on paved surfaces in the city until it got past mid afternoon. if you don't have rates and/or super cold temps it's there at least a little.

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sun angle is one of those things people have these hard fixed ideas on. to be honest, here i think it's probably an issue even at sun angle min. on dec 26 we werent sticking well on paved surfaces in the city until it got past mid afternoon. if you don't have rates and/or super cold temps it's there at least a little.

Probably but I think you and small minority of others make too much about it. Snow has a harder time sticking on city streets because of higher volume of traffic and this place is a heat island. It just takes longer. I've seen it stick almost immediately in March here. Not often, but it happens.

I'm not dismissing it outright, but I'm not going to make it a huge factor in any forecast...unless it was like 80 degrees in March the day before hand...and even then...

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sun angle is one of those things people have these hard fixed ideas on. to be honest, here i think it's probably an issue even at sun angle min. on dec 26 we werent sticking well on paved surfaces in the city until it got past mid afternoon. if you don't have rates and/or super cold temps it's there at least a little.

yeah, my comment was more out of sarcasm but as sarcastic as it was intended to be, its somewhat of a valid point as you said. snowmaggedon part 1 in feb. started friday morning IIRC and it didn't really start to stick on streets/sidewalks here until late afternoon when rates picked up and the sun went down.

Yesterday worked out pretty well as the bands came through after sunset so we got maximum return out of it. :guitar:

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Probably but I think you and small minority of others make too much about it. Snow has a harder time sticking on city streets because of higher volume of traffic and this place is a heat island. It just takes longer. I've seen it stick almost immediately in March here. Not often, but it happens.

I'm not dismissing it outright, but I'm not going to make it a huge factor in any forecast...unless it was like 80 degrees in March the day before hand...and even then...

i actually very rarely talk about it. but once you get into feb there's no mistake that we're turning a corner here. winter is pretty short in dc.

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i actually very rarely talk about it. but once you get into feb there's no mistake that we're turning a corner here. winter is pretty short in dc.

I don't think the sun angle becomes an issue until it goes above 40 degrees in the sky. Under that, its mostly temps. Upper 20's and on up, you're gonna get melting on black ashpalt, mid 20's on down, not too much. Now after that sun goes above about 40 degrees, it seems to melt on asphalt even with temps in the mid to low 20's. Maybe evaporate is a better term at those temps, but either way, it disappears.

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I don't think the sun angle becomes an issue until it goes above 40 degrees in the sky. Under that, its mostly temps. Upper 20's and on up, you're gonna get melting on black ashpalt, mid 20's on down, not too much. Now after that sun goes above about 40 degrees, it seems to melt on asphalt even with temps in the mid to low 20's. Maybe evaporate is a better term at those temps, but either way, it disappears.

i dunno.. i really dont care that much to be honest. in 99% of situations i'd rather have snow start at night living here whether it's the sun that warms the ground or the friction from metro cars or something.

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of course when we finally get a nice track...its too warm

At this range always a chance a little northern wave comes through and develops into a 50/50 to reinfoce some cold air. Probably not likely given the current models, but basically the way the models have performed this year, all we can really say with a straight face at this point is that by next week there will be a storm somewhere in the eastern 1/3 of the US.

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At this range always a chance a little northern wave comes through and develops into a 50/50 to reinfoce some cold air. Probably not likely given the current models, but basically the way the models have performed this year, all we can really say with a straight face at this point is that by next week there will be a storm somewhere in the eastern 1/3 of the US.

The AO has been negative pretty much all winter and it has worked wonders for just about everybody snow wise except for North of Richmond to BWI. Just some bad luck for the local area I guess. Deep south and Northeast is hammering out some of their best nina snows ever.

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we had a good slp track yesterday just no precip

not really

the primary was well west of us

the 2nd'ary took over from the primary too far north for us

the only thing that saved our butts was the 5H Low was just far enough south to stir up the atmosphere and squeeze a little snow out of it for us

by the way, my trace-2" from 3 days ago turned out to be pretty good, with DCA at 1" officially and BWI 2" on the dot

sadly, the only reason I was right was because I made it in disgust based on the seasonal trend :(

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not really

the primary was well west of us

the 2nd'ary took over from the primary too far north for us

the only thing that saved our butts was the 5H Low was just far enough south to stir up the atmosphere and squeeze a little snow out of it for us

by the way, my trace-2" from 3 days ago turned out to be pretty good, with DCA at 1" officially and BWI 2" on the dot

sadly, the only reason I was right was because I made it in disgust based on the seasonal trend :(

i realize the issues but the east coast surface track is usually a good one if they werent present

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