rduwx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 No wonder Fish said he had no clue about next week. The models are all over the place. Isn't that the truth...So far I have seen no consistancy w/ this storm. I sure would hate to make a forecast because to be honest I don't have a clue. Each model run has a different solution. Hopefully w/in the next few days we will start to narrow things down a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I don't even know why I bother looking at weather models this far out. They tease you one run and then disappoint you the next and then back to teasing and then send all the huge snow returns two hundreds miles to the north or south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Looking like a big rain dance for RDU. Do I have that right? Although NWS Raleigh leaves some hope in their discussion. Are we trending westward? Afraid to ask over in the I-R-Serious thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Looking like a big rain dance for RDU. Do I have that right? Although NWS Raleigh leaves some hope in their discussion. Are we trending westward? Afraid to ask over in the I-R-Serious thread. With the current trend there would be more rain in Raleigh, rather than um...the Triad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Boo hiss if this keeps up...for me anyway. Great for you guys west of I-77 or so. Enjoy it. Models rarely trend "east" with storms like this do they? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VeronicaCorningstone Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Boo hiss if this keeps up...for me anyway. Great for you guys west of I-77 or so. Enjoy it. Models rarely trend "east" with storms like this do they? It sure doesn't seem like it. Darn west trends... Yay for cold rain! (hey, at least it's not ice!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I think those of us in the triangle area still need to pay close attention. It really wouldn't take much of a shift to the east to get us in the game. Just look at how the models have been this week, so you can't tell me this inland track is set in stone yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The weird thing is the models show rain, and the WRAL and RAH are talking about snow here Monday and Tuesday. Usually it's the other way around. RAH sounded confident and more bullish than usual yesterday when they talked about it being snow and ice here for Monday and Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The weird thing is the models show rain, and the WRAL and RAH are talking about snow here Monday and Tuesday. Usually it's the other way around. RAH sounded confident and more bullish than usual yesterday when they talked about it being snow and ice here for Monday and Tuesday. The storm has kind of changed over the past day or two. Originally the 1st wave was the one that would be giving us snow or ice and that was on Monday night or Tuesday. Now the 1st wave is sheared out and the 2nd is the robust system which pushes back the time. I've been listening to Elizabeth Gardner this morning and she has been saying this will probably be pushed back into Wednesday. I just don't think they have changed there 7 day graphic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 my guess is RDU might be looking at snow to rain and possibly back to snow as the storm is currently modeled. How much snow on both ends would be impossible to determine at this point, and quite honestly the current track of the H5 cut off would not favor back end snows here, I believe. But as already pointed out, this could certainly change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The latest from RAH I guess there is still hope for some winter weather here. I am going to be upset if we just get a bunch of rain while the folks to the west get a big snow. GIVEN MODEL TRENDS... WE MAY HAVE TO SLOW DOWN THE CHANCE OF PRECIP BEGINNING UNTIL TUESDAY - THEN POTENTIALLY HAVE IT LAST INTO WED NIGHT. THERE WOULD BE MORE RAIN IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST AND POTENTIALLY VERY HEAVY SNOW IN THE NW. HOWEVER... CAUTION IS ADVISED AS MOST ENSEMBLE MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEP THE TRACK OF THE STORM ALONG THE COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE... WHILE TRENDS HAVE BEEN COMING WEST WITH TIME. RIGHT NOW... THIS WOULD STILL BRING THE WINTER STORM THREAT EASTWARD INTO A GOOD PORTION OF CENTRAL NC... IF TRENDS CONTINUE... WE MAY END UP WITH A STORM TRACK ENOUGH INLAND THAT CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES GET ALL RAIN. ALSO TO BE CONSIDERED... THE PARENT HIGH BEFORE THE STORM IS FORECAST TO BE IN POSITION TO DELIVER VERY COLD DRY AIR INTO OUR REGION BEFORE THE STORM DEVELOPS. EVEN IF HYBRID OR NON CLASSICAL DAMMING DEVELOPS (WHICH APPEARS LIKELY)... WITH A PROGRESSIVE SURFACE HIGH - THERE WOULD STILL BE THAT INITIAL COLD AIR TO DEAL WITH. THEN... THE STORM ITSELF WILL GENERATE ITS OWN COLD AIR (EXAMPLES INCLUDE THE MARCH 93 SUPERSTORM ON THE EXTREME AND THE CHRISTMAS 2010 SNOW). THIS STORM HAS A LOT OF POTENTIAL FOR OUR REGION INCLUDING HELPING SUPPRESS WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS...AND BRINGING WINTER STORM CONDITIONS TO PARTS OF THE PIEDMONT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 How many snow storms with accumulating amounts have folks in the Triad and Charlotte region had this winter so far? Looks like they are going to get dumped on again, but yet they act like we should not complain about not getting any snow this winter because we had the one good storm at Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The 'means' show it a little more east, but the means aren't really that much good to me when the models start to trend (differently) and in agreement more or less . Both GFS and EURO (model leaders really at this range-imho) now have an inland runner of varying degrees. It is not like one has a coastal runner and the other an inland runner where a 'blend' can be considered. Plus, eastward trends I bet are far fewer historically than westward trends in these types of situations. True they just started this last night, but if they follow with a couple more just like that, then the trend is nearing reality. Please tell me I've got it all wrong and don't know what I'm talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 From matthew East's blog today. I know there is time, but I just think with our luck we are just going to get rain here. All this cold air and when we finally get a chance for a big snow, it is too warm. So we will see what happens. If the energy aloft stays consolidated, then a major system is quite possible. If the system deepens too soon, many in our region could get a driving rain storm. If it deepens and tracks just right, it could be a biggie for somebody in the region.But please here this...the solutions that the Euro and GFS have shown this morning are rare events and very difficult to come by. So, I would not be surprised at all to see this intense solution not verify. Like I said yesterday, I will likely not have any real confidence until a couple more days pass. Lots of players on the field here. As I said in the comment section, now is not the time for celebrations or pity parties. Lots will likely change in coming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The models shifted pretty big in just 24 hours. We still have four days to go, so there is plenty time for them to change again and again. I just hope it is ok this time to complain if we get nothing but rain while folks in the Triad and Charlotte get snow again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx n of atl Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Christmas Snow in the GA! 6 inches of snow at my house wtih .25 of ice school and work closed for a week Now we are talking another storm? Is anyone checking on Mother Nature? I feel we just moved to the North this winter! All I can say is WOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I think this storm is not a Miller A or B...for RDU it'll be a Miller Lite, as in what I'm drinking on the couch while it's 41 and raining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 New run of the GFS pushes the storm to the east (SC coast) as a weaker storm. This is a worse run for NE Ga, E Tenn, and WNC. But much better for us in central NC. The 0z GFS looked (a little) like the 93 storm that creamed WNC but only gave RDU around an inch. It would kill many of us to see that same track again. The current 12 GFS is about a good of a run for us central NC people as we could have hoped. Even at face value we get a couple of inces of snow. Now if we can keep the track and increase precip we will be golden!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I think this storm is not a Miller A or B...for RDU it'll be a Miller Lite, as in what I'm drinking on the couch while it's 41 and raining. cross polar flow ftw! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 GFS shows me getting three feet of snow...OMG...it's SOO GREAT looking...it's going to verify for sure...rejoice. GFS shows me getting nothing...OMG....it's SOO TERRIBLE looking....it's going to verify for sure...cliff dive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 How many snow storms with accumulating amounts have folks in the Triad and Charlotte region had this winter so far? Looks like they are going to get dumped on again, but yet they act like we should not complain about not getting any snow this winter because we had the one good storm at Christmas. You mean both Charlotte snows that add up to 75% of your seasonal total? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 You mean both Charlotte snows that add up to 75% of your seasonal total? How many events have you had that had measurable snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Oh noes...for once in a blue moon Charlotte has gotten more snow than Raleigh during a winter so far. We're doomed. I don't know why people in the Triad and Triangle just can't be happy to see the I-85 corridor from ATL-GSP-CLT get in the fun for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Oh noes...for once in a blue moon Charlotte has gotten more snow than Raleigh during a winter so far. We're doomed. I don't know why people in the Triad and Triangle just can't be happy to see the I-85 corridor from ATL-GSP-CLT get in the fun for once. I don't know why the ATL-GSP-CLT people can't see that being happy for them and gnashing our own teeth aren't mutually exclusive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 We've had two measurable snows of more than a trace here. Your area had up to a 2.5 inch snow on Dec. 4, a minor snow event with ice on top of it on Dec. 16, the Christmas storm and the Jan. 10 minor snow and ice event. My area of Charlotte has had probably 7.5 inches of total snow/sleet/ice accumulation this winter; Raleigh had that in the Christmas Storm alone. Don't believe me, go here Past Events and do some basic math by adding up storm totals for the two cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 We've had two measurable snows of more than a trace here. Your area had up to a 2.5 inch snow on Dec. 4, a minor snow event with ice on top of it on Dec. 16, the Christmas storm and the Jan. 10 minor snow and ice event. My area of Charlotte has had probably 7.5 inches of total snow/sleet/ice accumulation this winter; Raleigh had that in the Christmas Storm alone. Don't believe me, go here Past Events and do some basic math by adding up storm totals for the two cities. Looks like I was wrong then so why is Brick Tamland complaining? Oh wait...it's Brick Tamland. Duh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Looks like I was wrong then so why is Brick Tamland complaining? Oh wait...it's Brick Tamland. Duh. I think Brick and Flo are drinking the same kool aid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Because it sucks when there is snow all around you but you don't get any. We've had two good snows this winter, both in December. I'd like some more if others around me are going to get it. Everyone on here is like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Looks like I was wrong then so why is Brick Tamland complaining? Oh wait...it's Brick Tamland. Duh. I never complained about getting minor events and one big snow, at Christmas none the less (which Brick said he didn't care if it wouldn't snow the rest of the winter as long as he got snow at Christmas time), while I was in Raleigh. Of course, being from Hickory, I would complain about not getting the snow that back home would always get . I've only seen/know of four, maybe five, decent snows (3+ inches) while living in the CLT area (Huntersville and now just north of Uptown) since 2008, so it's not the snow mecca Brick makes it out to be and neither is RDU. I do miss living north of I-40 though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I wish we could all get a foot of snow, from Murphy to Manteo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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