NCBlizzard Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 yes, and the Euro was in the 20's during Monday over N half of Ga and western third of Carolinas, with norhteast to east winds. Excellent damming, and a lot of RH, the models are likely still too light in the western Carolinas and too late, based on all the old maps of a strong vort in Texas I've seen. anyway, if I were in n Al or N. half of GA from Atlanta northward I'd be pretty excited. You could be 72 hours away from one amazing winter storm, and probably a big snow (all or mostly snow) on Atlantas north side. Really big. I'm not sure why folks are still not just ecstatic on this setup. Take a look at the big picture. This is an incredible setup , namely becuase we have the cold air, finally, so widespread. And a great overrunning, with high Omega at that. Theres absolutely no reason to be down. Everything looks just too good. I know its our nature to doubt, but this is one storm that is going to deliver in a mighty way for some folks. Thanks for the updates! hopefully everything finally goes good for us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Just a heads up guys...I will be deleting as many IMBY queries during this model cycle as I can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Got the updated Bufkit data for the 0z NAM and loaded it since I suck at reading actual skew t's without that cool readout number efffect.. and is indeed a full, sticking, snow sounding at the onset.. on hour 84. Edit: for CAE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 You mean Northern 1/3 of Georgia ? Northern Half of Georgia would include areas well south of Atlanta. OMG! Please just stop!!! Please Lookout...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I know. Just trying to figure out the model interpretations. Obviously they're seeing something as all are doing this. sorry If I sounded snappy . I didn't mean to, and reread my post and I offended myself. anyway, my thoughts still stand, I don't trust the qpf numbers, just using them as a ballpark. the fact theres 1.75 in Miss. and Ala is a huge flag to me and it showed up in Euro if I recall, or close to it. Yes , it weakens toward us....but each run delays that weakening. Like HKY wx said, the millerA will likely ride the gulf coast and dump straight from Miss to NC. Until the Euro says not, I really see no reason to change my mind. I'm not going to call for a foot, because some areas may only get 6" around here, but some areas will probably get that, although I have no idea where yet. Watch and see if the Euro doesn't hold the closed low together longer, but even without that, we dont' necessarily need it for a big snowfall. The fact its slowing down and has incredible omega in Ala and GA is also a flag. All systems go here , if you ask me. ok so is the warmer look of the NAM for N MS a bias or the start of a trend. Im hoping we are the starting point and it keeps on trucking east Its probably too warm at 850 there. The Euro was colder if i recall. thank you for this post! lol - i was thinking i was reading the models completely wrong or something. i know things can go wrong, but at this point it just looks fantastic. cold temps, check. precip, check. GOM open with moisture, check. if this continues by sunday i will be so giddy i wont be able to type! soundings for n and ne ga are great the entire time the moisture is overhead on the new nam (at least out to 84 lol, and its not over then!) a lot can go wrong, but with each successive run still keeping things on track in a general sense its looking better as we get closer (or should i say its looking more likely for a major se winter storm). Lets switch places LOL, you're always in an excellent spot for these things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 yes, and the Euro was in the 20's during Monday over N half of Ga and western third of Carolinas, with norhteast to east winds. Excellent damming, and a lot of RH, the models are likely still too light in the western Carolinas and too late, based on all the old maps of a strong vort in Texas I've seen. anyway, if I were in n Al or N. half of GA from Atlanta northward I'd be pretty excited. You could be 72 hours away from one amazing winter storm, and probably a big snow (all or mostly snow) on Atlantas north side. Really big. I'm not sure why folks are still not just ecstatic on this setup. Take a look at the big picture. This is an incredible setup , namely becuase we have the cold air, finally, so widespread. And a great overrunning, with high Omega at that. Theres absolutely no reason to be down. Everything looks just too good. I know its our nature to doubt, but this is one storm that is going to deliver in a mighty way for some folks. Foothills. I've seen various models tackle the qpf in the TN Valley differently. Looks to me like the folks around Chattanooga may be sitting pretty again. Honestly, their snow drought has been epic IMO. As for Knoxville, I think they may eventually get in on some good snows. At this point, I think the northern TN Valley looks to be on the light side of qpf. Do you think the northern extent of the precip shield in TN looks underdone on the 0z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 just because a model doesn't have 1" qpf doesnt' mean it won't happen. I m not saying the 1.75" qpf is going to show up for us, but trust me the numbers WILL come up with time if the vort takes that path and other factors stay the same. Already, each run maintains that vort stronger and right for us, the dynamics and warm advection , which is an excllent precip maker by the way, are right on top of us. Its an error in the models..don't know why, but maybe it has to do with the cold in place, I don't know. We don't see this setup much, but a Gulf low almost always does us very well, if we got the cold air. I'm not worried at all. I am more worried about warm nosing and thicknesses not being where they need to be for snow. Basically, the QPF is the least of my worries now. I am weenie out on the temp worries attm. Please throw a bone and explain why not to worry. Hopefully DP's will be there and saturation will do the trick for snow. I would hate to see a darn near perfect track, setup, etc by ruined by temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 OMG! Please just stop!!! Please Lookout...... Trust me he's on his last chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Sorry, I was just correcting him, didn't mean to offend you. Well, please stop correcting him. You are lucky he gives analysis at all for GA and you are caught up in the semantics of geographical GA. Who cares? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Then timing is indeed an issue, just not threading a needle as was necessary for the Dec 26 storm? I'm not saying we won't get anything if the 2nd s/w does phase in w/ the 1st s/w. I'm just saying it would help w/ getting more qpf for our area. If this phase happens sooner it will up the qpf but it will probably pull the atlantic low closer to the coast and we would more than likely have mixing issues. It would be a snow to ip to snow situation is the way I see it. So pick your poison. More qpf w/ some sleet or all snow w/ less qpf. This is just my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyes2theskies Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I am more worried about warm nosing and thicknesses not being where they need to be for snow. Basically, the QPF is the least of my worries now. I am weenie out on the temp worries attm. Please throw a bone and explain why not to worry. Hopefully DP's will be there and saturation will do the trick for snow. I would hate to see a darn near perfect track, setup, etc by ruined by temps. Its gotta pan out this time we are overdue. That Bermuda snow triangle has to bust sooner or later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Trust me he's on his last chance. Thank you sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 We're also on the heels of tracking a storm where speed and timing were EVERYTHING. From what I've picked up, that's less of an issue with this system. The NAM is slower than the GFS, but I'm not sure the net effect is anything other than a different window for precip (northern stream interaction notwithstanding). yes, and the Euro was in the 20's during Monday over N half of Ga and western third of Carolinas, with norhteast to east winds. Excellent damming, and a lot of RH, the models are likely still too light in the western Carolinas and too late, based on all the old maps of a strong vort in Texas I've seen. anyway, if I were in n Al or N. half of GA from Atlanta northward I'd be pretty excited. You could be 72 hours away from one amazing winter storm, and probably a big snow (all or mostly snow) on Atlantas north side. Really big. I'm not sure why folks are still not just ecstatic on this setup. Take a look at the big picture. This is an incredible setup , namely becuase we have the cold air, finally, so widespread. And a great overrunning, with high Omega at that. Theres absolutely no reason to be down. Everything looks just too good. I know its our nature to doubt, but this is one storm that is going to deliver in a mighty way for some folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I'd be nervous too if I was up around RDU....it always seems like the NE flow eats into their QPF in setups like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I'd be nervous too if I was up around RDU....it always seems like the NE flow eats into their QPF in setups like this. That or anything else. Lake Jordan, God hating the liberals of Chapel Hill, who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Okay thanks, I got 2 for snow and 1 for ice. I think I will go study the comet classes to read skew-t diagrams. Go with the snow. Close but I was obviously in error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 It's easy for me, mark, skip, jason and robert to feel good tonight...a 50 mile shift NE puts us into 1.00"+ QPF totals(according to the euro) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I'd be nervous too if I was up around RDU....it always seems like the NE flow eats into their QPF in setups like this. I'm way NW of RDU so I'm really nervous, If the GFS and EURO don't come north tonight I may be in the corner watching ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Just a heads up guys...I will be deleting as many IMBY queries during this model cycle as I can. How many deletions for Charlotte? Go ahead, warn me. I deserve it for that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 you beat me to the punch lol - i was going to post the same maps from twister to hopefully calm some down a little. looks like a huge shield of precip over much of the se, and a lot of cold air well into n and central ga. the ingredients are there. now we just need this to be maintained for a lot more runs (fingers crossed) Yep, it's one of the exceptionally rare systems where cold air is not a problem at the surface for just about anyone within the sound of our voice...ummm letters. yes, and the Euro was in the 20's during Monday over N half of Ga and western third of Carolinas, with norhteast to east winds. Excellent damming, and a lot of RH, the models are likely still too light in the western Carolinas and too late, based on all the old maps of a strong vort in Texas I've seen. anyway, if I were in n Al or N. half of GA from Atlanta northward I'd be pretty excited. You could be 72 hours away from one amazing winter storm, and probably a big snow (all or mostly snow) on Atlantas north side. Really big. I'm not sure why folks are still not just ecstatic on this setup. Take a look at the big picture. This is an incredible setup , namely becuase we have the cold air, finally, so widespread. And a great overrunning, with high Omega at that. Theres absolutely no reason to be down. Everything looks just too good. I know its our nature to doubt, but this is one storm that is going to deliver in a mighty way for some folks. Trust me, I have been. It's been hard to concentrate on much today lol... knowing we have the rare opportunity to have a frozen ground, large amounts of snow, and a cold airmass behind it for days. It's been what, 20 plus years? Although last night i was asking this question to myself quite a bit as there was suddenly a lot of skepticism among some for some reason I couldn't understand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 NAM Bufkit has snow ratios starting at 20:1 at GSP on Monday...if you hold those for a while, who gives a crap if you lose a little QPF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 How many deletions for Charlotte? Go ahead, warn me. I deserve it for that one. Watch your back, pops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 NAM Bufkit has snow ratios starting at 20:1 at GSP on Monday...if you hold those for a while, who gives a crap if you lose a little QPF? Now those are some ratios imagine if you got 1 inch with that...epic snow storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 sorry If I sounded snappy . I didn't mean to, and reread my post and I offended myself. anyway, my thoughts still stand, I don't trust the qpf numbers, just using them as a ballpark. the fact theres 1.75 in Miss. and Ala is a huge flag to me and it showed up in Euro if I recall, or close to it. Yes , it weakens toward us....but each run delays that weakening. Like HKY wx said, the millerA will likely ride the gulf coast and dump straight from Miss to NC. Until the Euro says not, I really see no reason to change my mind. I'm not going to call for a foot, because some areas may only get 6" around here, but some areas will probably get that, although I have no idea where yet. Watch and see if the Euro doesn't hold the closed low together longer, but even without that, we dont' necessarily need it for a big snowfall. The fact its slowing down and has incredible omega in Ala and GA is also a flag. All systems go here , if you ask me. Your response was just fine Robert. Your line of reasoning makes perfect sense to me. Maybe I'm giving myself a challenge attempting to keep a skeptical, more pessimistic attitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I do not believe the NAM at all, it is much slower and more positively tilted than all other guidance-it may end up slower than thought originally, but I need to see a trend from other models until I buy into this extreme solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I do not believe the NAM at all, it is much slower and more positively tilted than all other guidance-it may end up slower than thought originally, but I need to see a trend from other models until I buy into this extreme solution. it really rocks PDK on bufkit...of course it did at 18z too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 NAM Bufkit has snow ratios starting at 20:1 at GSP on Monday...if you hold those for a while, who gives a crap if you lose a little QPF? That's another reason why I haven't been too worried about QPF. With 20:1, .3 still gets me 6 inches. Plus, cold temps and ground guarantees what falls sticks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Care to elaborate? I think a NE flow is about as good as you can hope for...a westerly component results in downsloping and drying, while a southerly component leads to warm air intrusion. At least with a northeasterly flow you have both moisture and some feed of cooler/drier air. Well, the cold and dry flow sometimes eats away at overrunning events...I know of several where that's happened(Feb 04 comes to mind). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 sorry If I sounded snappy . I didn't mean to, and reread my post and I offended myself. anyway, my thoughts still stand, I don't trust the qpf numbers, just using them as a ballpark. the fact theres 1.75 in Miss. and Ala is a huge flag to me and it showed up in Euro if I recall, or close to it. Yes , it weakens toward us....but each run delays that weakening. Like HKY wx said, the millerA will likely ride the gulf coast and dump straight from Miss to NC. Until the Euro says not, I really see no reason to change my mind. I'm not going to call for a foot, because some areas may only get 6" around here, but some areas will probably get that, although I have no idea where yet. Watch and see if the Euro doesn't hold the closed low together longer, but even without that, we dont' necessarily need it for a big snowfall. The fact its slowing down and has incredible omega in Ala and GA is also a flag. All systems go here , if you ask me. Its probably too warm at 850 there. The Euro was colder if i recall. Lets switch places LOL, you're always in an excellent spot for these things. i dont know what post you are referring to, but i dont know i have ever seen you make a snippy or snide comment! sometimes it seems like i am in an excellent spot, and sometimes it doesnt (i guess we are never really satisfied, are we!) as much as a lot of us have whined, griped, moaned and complained over the last many years about the 'good old GOM lows' and the 'classic 80s se snowstorm' the 'classic track' etc. well it appears that it is back...these lows and tracks along the gulf can give a lot of us in the se snow (or at least winter precip), and they usually do if the temps are cold enough. this time it looks like temps in the 20s for a change, so this could be what a lot of us have been longing for. if its a slow mover and longer duration, we can still get a pile of snow, sleet (or ice) even if its not snowing an inch an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 NAM Bufkit has snow ratios starting at 20:1 at GSP on Monday...if you hold those for a while, who gives a crap if you lose a little QPF? I guess a football analogy works here... are you offensive or defensive minded? I have that sneaking suspicion that the low to mid level temps are going to be warmer than forecast and desire to see higher QPF numbers as an offset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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