CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 You have to leave us a few crumbs....lol I'll be dripping away, while you guys rip at some point this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The weenies on the NAM bus go round and round, round and round, round and round... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Man if we can get the PV to drop SE sooner......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I'll be dripping away, while you guys rip at some point this winter. Yeah, Its true, Your loss would be our gain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Man if we can get the PV to drop SE sooner......... Do that and it probably just boots this s/w out faster IMO. What we need is this s/w that kicks off all our snow to be stronger. Let it trend that way another run or two and we may see some pretty incredible things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Well the trend today has been improved. 12Z showed some signs, 18Z definitive, 0Z first out of the shoot continues this trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Yeah, Its true, Your loss would be our gain You catch up in the end. If I were you, I'd watch that trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 Do that and it probably just boots this s/w out faster IMO. What we need is this s/w that kicks off all our snow to be stronger. Let it trend that way another run or two and we may see some pretty incredible things. What a weenie solution this is for even you and I. Looks like 8-12" verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 You catch up in the end. If I were you, I'd watch that trend. I think this will end up being a little more organized than the NAM shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I guess I'll be happy with my 3-6" over 3 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 You catch up in the end. If I were you, I'd watch that trend. Sweet run, Bufkit numbers should be prolific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Well the trend today has been improved. 12Z showed some signs, 18Z definitive, 0Z first out of the shoot continues this trend. I'd like to see the 500mb energy coming to the coast at 48 hours continue to ramp up. Let it dominate and spin up legitimate low pressure in advance. Close off or come closer to it at all levels south of New England well in advance of the "pv" and we'll have a good party even if it's not captured. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 You catch up in the end. If I were you, I'd watch that trend. We did, The last few runs has dropped .25" here, I would be content with that....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 That's more a zucker crusher right there. NAM is just incredible for NYC metro, a monster hit. I don't believe we can get that much from a Norlun trough, though; NWS Upton has released snowfall maps forecasting around 7" here, but I'd still believe this is more of a 3-6" event. Most of the modeling does show the Norlun setting up over NYC, but these events tend to be unpredictable and NAM frequently overdoes QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Looks like it wants to go well past 84 hours..more waiting now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 What a weenie solution this is for even you and I. Looks like 8-12" verbatim. Congrats! I'm out--hopefully to wake up and see the other models give me more than an inch;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I think you'll do better than what the NAM shows. I think so too, but my confidence is low. I know there will be a lot of changes even up to T-0 so I'm really emotionally invested in any solution yet. My goal is 2-3" to whiten everything back up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Do that and it probably just boots this s/w out faster IMO. What we need is this s/w that kicks off all our snow to be stronger. Let it trend that way another run or two and we may see some pretty incredible things. That works...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I think this will end up being a little more organized than the NAM shows. Violently agree, that is how we get a region wide 8-12.. Like the trend big time today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 We did, The last few runs has dropped .25" here, I would be content with that....... You mentioned the GYX AFD earlier. Didja check out who wrote the long term? I'm happy with where we are and how things are going. I'm absurdly confident we'll see more than what this NAM run advertised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 We're close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 Congrats! I'm out--hopefully to wake up and see the other models give me more than an inch;) On a modeled warning criteria snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I think so too, but my confidence is low. I know there will be a lot of changes even up to T-0 so I'm really emotionally invested in any solution yet. My goal is 2-3" to whiten everything back up. Thats reasonable. I'm putting an over under of 4 on this event. I do want it to get freshened up and pretty but we could get really good ratios and perhaps the flow off of the ocean will do some things for us that the models aren't showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 You mentioned the GYX AFD earlier. Didja check out who wrote the long term? I'm happy with where we are and how things are going. I'm absurdly confident we'll see more than what this NAM run advertised. Yeah, I saw who it was.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I think this will end up being a little more organized than the NAM shows. Each run has trended slowly towards something more organized. So far, so good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 The weenies on the NAM bus go round and round, round and round, round and round... My juju has invaded NCEP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 NAM is just incredible for NYC metro, a monster hit. I don't believe we can get that much from a Norlun trough, though; NWS Upton has released snowfall maps forecasting around 7" here, but I'd still believe this is more of a 3-6" event. Most of the modeling does show the Norlun setting up over NYC, but these events tend to be unpredictable and NAM frequently overdoes QPF. I think it's outstanding for your by but NYC...the city itself and NJ seems like just barely on the outside looking in per the graphics by cty I saw...see Bob's pic below. You get buried this run though...everyone from Yonkers on up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Congrats! I'm out--hopefully to wake up and see the other models give me more than an inch;) man mike i hope you jackpot soon. at least the ice is getting thicker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.