Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 lol They should probably hoist them now so we have time to prepare. Think of the children. The 18z NOGAPs nudged east. Lobsters will need their plows though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 A bit closer and faster on the 1/11 threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 lol Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Why? Because it's not likely to meet criteria? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Wow 12z euro and 18z gfs both give me maybe 4-6". Could be more but probably not since its long duration. I'd take 4" and run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 A bit closer and faster on the 1/11 threat. Easy workable for the lead, having trouble understanding Euros long range, seems to defy logic, Way to warm JMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 It's obvious that NYC and sw CT are obviously going to be the jackpot. Now you're on it. It's weird to see everyone here acting like you. Bad Wednesdays all around, huh? It might snow, it's fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 It's obvious that NYC and sw CT are obviously going to be the jackpot. You bad boy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Why are we all jumping aboard the snow train when this one run says we will get snow? I want to jump on board just as much as everyone else. But even with the last storm we had no clue till the day before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I have got to say that the trends today at H7 and H5 especially the 12z and 18z runs on the NAM and GFS have been for the better. Better H5 low and a stronger H5 low at that as moves through our longitude. I am excited to see what the next round of runs bring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Verbatim that 1/11/11 storm is OTS, but I like the depiction of not pressing the cross-polar flow too much at h5 while at the surface massive HP just rips into the central plains. With the -NAO relaxing a little and all that cold air in the middle of the country we might actually see a pulse from the SE ridge, which we need in order to get this thing closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 Because it's not likely to meet criteria? Why not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Why not? :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Why are we all jumping aboard the snow train when this one run says we will get snow? I want to jump on board just as much as everyone else. But even with the last storm we had no clue till the day before. The 12z euro as well as the 18z gfs give most of the reigon a high end advisory snow fall. The 18z Nam doesn't look quite as good as those two to me but is better then it was.Also, of course this will happen. In 5 hours, the gfs will come in with flurries and people will be back to cliff jumping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Why are we all jumping aboard the snow train when this one run says we will get snow? I want to jump on board just as much as everyone else. But even with the last storm we had no clue till the day before. It's a kids train at the kiddy ride though, nobody here has jumped on anything big, perhaps understand what Will and Scott are saying, nice setup for a nice snow. Why people think every single storm should be Armageddon is weird. Did they grow up on Mammoth Mountain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 It's a kids train at the kiddy ride though, nobody here has jumped on anything big, perhaps understand what Will and Scott are saying, nice setup for a nice snow. Why people think every single storm should be Armageddon is weird. Did they grow up on Mammoth Mountain? In fairness we think everything is a nice setup for snow right up until we get nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Why not? Long duration...even 6 or 7 inches over 36 hours does not meet warning criteria. I think you need at least 8" if the duration is longer than 24h. It would be a high end advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 It's a kids train at the kiddy ride though, nobody here has jumped on anything big, perhaps understand what Will and Scott are saying, nice setup for a nice snow. Why people think every single storm should be Armageddon is weird. Did they grow up on Mammoth Mountain? I skiied there. The first time....I was in this motel after driving up from LA. It was 87 when we left LA. I had a carton of milk and this was in the days before fridges in hotel rooms. I figured I'd drop it in the snow bank to stay cold. The snow had separated from the building a little. After I let it go I didn't hear it hit the ground for what seemed like several seconds...THAT got my attention. The next day I could see we had a 14 foot base......Sierra FTW. 300-400 annually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Long duration...even 6 or 7 inches over 36 hours does not meet warning criteria. I think you need at least 8" if the duration is longer than 24h. It would be a high end advisory. WINTER STORM WARNING When any of the following is expected within the next 12 to 36 hour: More than one predominant hazard Winter weather event having more than one predominant hazard {ie. heavy snow and blowing snow (below blizzard conditions), snow and ice, snow and sleet, sleet and ice, or snow, sleet and ice} meeting or exceeding warning criteria for at least one of the precipitation elements. Snow, Ocean Effect Snow, or Sleet 6 inches averaged over a forecast zone in a 12 hour period 8 inches averaged over a CT, MA, RI forecast zone in a 24 hour period 9 inches averaged over a NH forecast zone in a 24 hour period WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY When any of the following is expected within the next 12 to 24 hours: More than one predominant hazard Winter weather event having more than one predominant hazard (ie., snow and ice, snow and sleet, or snow, ice & sleet) meeting or exceeding advisory criteria for at least one of the precipitation elements, but remaining below warning criteria. Snow, Ocean Effect Snow, and/or Sleet 3 inches averaged over a CT, MA, RI forecast zone in 12 hours 4 inches averaged over a NH forecast zone in 12 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 More vigorous?, hoping to see a tad better 8 h flow, little anemic right now. Well red flag for potentially localized hvy totals. Those kind of qpf totals with this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 In fairness we think everything is a nice setup for snow right up until we get nothing. Not true , I think you need to know who to listen to.Whiffs happen but I take the word of some here before ANYONE. Trying to put a group monikor on all is silly. As we thought is a joke originated here for LOL stuff. Come to a GTG and meet the guys some day, it's not all about a bar stool, you might be surprised some here actually are as intelligent as you. I know you have plans with the kid but someday hopefully you will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Long duration...even 6 or 7 inches over 36 hours does not meet warning criteria. I think you need at least 8" if the duration is longer than 24h. It would be a high end advisory. Will, A couple things, Could the models be underplaying qpf amounts right now and beef them up from here on out (Kinda like how the GFS had them a couple days ago?) Do you see this Norlun/Trough trend more northeast over the next 48 hours? Thanks. EDIT: Also, When were the last major norlun events in new england? double thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 GFS ensembles are pretty strong with the trough along the south coast of sne. Just looking at the orientation of the isobars, looks to be more ne flow at the surface, but we'll see what the qpf maps say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 We are now heading into the dead zone......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 This winter may very well set the record for number of bombs modeled that did not verify. Worst GFS run regarding this system yet is this 18z run. Those limey green puck level QPF paints are usually fuzzy cus and virga/flurries in partly sunny and the GFS is almost succeeding at drilling all that mechanical power and potential through the area while not producing anything - real close to pulling that off. Interesting. The other thing that is new about this over the last 24 hours is that the 500mb surface is weakening ....not deepening. That may be an artifact of failing ...pretty much any cyclogensis at this piont, but it's hard to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 We are now heading into the dead zone......... Thankfully we have a big C's game towards the end of the dead zone tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 This winter may very well set the record for number of bombs modeled that did not verify. Worst GFS run regarding this system yet is this 18z run. Those limey green puck level QPF paints are usually fuzzy cus and virga/flurries in partly sunny and the GFS is almost succeeding at drilling all that mechanics power and potential through the area while not producing anything - real close to pulling that of. Interesting. The other thing that is new about this over the last 24 hours is that the 500mb surface is weakening ....not deepening. That may be an artifact of failing ...pretty much any cyclogensis at this piont, but it's hard to say. I disagree. How is this the worst GFS run?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neweathereye Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Anyone see this from HPC QPF discussion?? Something tells me we could be in for more snow then forecasted .....I like their thinking..... NRN MID-ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND THE MID LVL SHRTWV AND ASSOC SFC WAVE CURRENTLY CROSSING THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST WILL AMPLIFY WELL OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH THU NIGHT AND EARLY FRI...TAKING THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE OUT ALONG WITH IT. HOWEVER...THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INSIST ON VERY STG HEIGHT FALLS EVOLVING OVER THE ERN U.S. THROUGH FRI...WHICH WILL BE LED BY THE PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO DRIVE A NEW AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN LIFTING NWD TO OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW CENTER THROUGH MOST OF THE PD SHOULD STAY WELL OFF THE COAST...BUT VIRTUALLY ALL THE MDLS INSIST ON THERE BE A RATHER SHARP INVERTED TROF EXTENDING FROM THE DEEPENING SFC LOW WELL BACK TO THE NW AND INLAND ACRS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC INITIALLY AND THEN PIVOTING NWD ACRS SRN NEW ENGLAND. ENHANCING LOW LVL CONVERGENCE AND A TAP OF SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE WORKING IN TANDEM WITH STG MID LVL DYNAMIC FORCING SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SWATH OF SNOWFALL TO THEN IMPACT THE REGION. MAY WELL SEE A NARROW BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW SET UP INVOF THE SFC TROF WHERE FORCING WILL BE MAXIMIZED. THERE HAS BEEN SOME TREND IN SOME OF THE GUIDANCE TO BRING THE OFFSHORE SFC LOW A BIT CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND BY THE END OF THE PD...WITH SOME ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR A LOW POSITION NEAR THE GULF OF ME. THIS WOULD SUPPORT A MORE CONCENTRATED QPF/SNOWFALL IMPACT TO COASTAL NEW ENGLAND AND THE 09Z SREF MEAN AND 00Z ECENS MEAN SUPPORT THIS IDEA. CONFIDENCE IS LIMITED AT BEST...BUT WILL OPT TO LEAN TWD A CONSENSUS OF THE 09Z SREF MEAN...00Z ECENS MEAN AND THE 00Z ECMWF ATTM FOR THE QPF DETAILS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Thankfully we have a big C's game towards the end of the dead zone tonight. Should be a tough game against the heat....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Should be a tough game against the heat....... Spurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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