40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Have not made a comment all day but I would keep an eye on tomorrows 12 Z MM 5 run Maybe it will pop a Ginxy Gale Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 blizzard conditions for I-95 eastbound exits 7-14 95 is a north south, even numbers are east west there Mr Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Hey Messenger, I can already see dramatic changes at H5 on the GFS, at -03 minutes....unreal. Time to turn to the RUC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I think Feb 5 1978 is back on the maps as well as a bunch of other very snowy analogs. HPC has me in the 4-8 inch range so I know I'm as good as doomed. All that has to happen now is a radio show and Mike Seidel getting flown in from TWC and it'll be sunny and 60 on Saturday. If the RUC someday was 100% accurate and showed a dryslot riding over our heads many would deny it until the sun appeared. --- DAYS 2/3... ...NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... EMBEDDED H7-H5 SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ROTATES MOVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...WITH A SURFACE WAVE FORMING OFF THE JERSEY COAST. SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO FOCUS ON FRIDAY ALONG AN AXIS OF H85-H7 FRONTOGENESIS FROM WESTERN NY TO NRN NEW JERSEY...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS...IN THE 4-6 INCH RANGE...ACROSS THE POCONOS/CATSKILLS. PLAYED OUT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER/FLATTER LOW-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN AND SURFACE LOW TRACK ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...IE THE ECMWF/NAM BLEND...WITH CONTINUED SNOWFALL TRACKING/MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST FROM THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND LONG ISLAND INTO CT/RI AND WESTERN MASS. THIS ALLOWS FOR DAY 2 SNOW TOTALS APPROACHING 6-10 INCHES ALONG THE NY/PA STATE LINE EASTWARD INTO LONG ISLAND SOUND...BEFORE THE SURFACE SYSTEM TRACKS EAST AND SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK. HOWEVER...COLD-SECTOR WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE...ONSHORE FLOW AND HIGH SLRs ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ISOLATED 4-8 INCH SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CAPE COD...EASTERN MASS AND THE MAINE COAST ON SATURDAY BEFORE THE SYSTEMS EXITS THE NEW ENGLAND OFFSHORE WATERS. Interesting discussion from the HPC snowfall forecast discussion. Hope it works out for us. Anyways messenger, I see that the NAM tends to slow down the northern stream energy around hour 48 on the off runs, this could be a result of the lack of new data into the models at initialization. Hopefully the 00z NAM continues the theme of the previous 00z and 12z runs of a faster northern stream vorticity maximum coming more southeastward, perhaps tugging the SPV further to the southeast in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Maybe it will pop a Ginxy Gale March on brother March on, it gon snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I just hate any type of oes because I usually never end up in a good zone in those instances.....being just inland, I usually end up in some sort of subsidence in favor of an area just to me s\e. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I just hate any type of oes because Iusually never end up in a good zone in those intances.....being just inland, I usually end up in some sort of subsidence in favor of area just to me s\e. Noreastermass128 will get smoked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Here is another little mesoscale thing. The NAM almost hints at two troughs...the NORLUN and the coastal front. Check out the hr 60 srfc wind prog. You can see where ne winds converge with n winds over ern mass, along with the sw ct NORLUN. Wow quite interesting Scott. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Noreastermass128 will get smoked. His ruler will, anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I just hate any type of oes because Iusually never end up in a good zone in those intances.....being just inland, I usually end up in some sort of subsidence in favor of area just to me s\e. You might be playing naked twister with a CF though for a bit during this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 I could see this trending better as we get closer. We are starting to see the model spit out more general qpf over SNE the last 12 hours...esp as the upper level low passes just S of us. Agreed. Gonna be a snowy 48-60 hours starting Thur nite..no matter what the debbies are spewing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The MM5 absolutely nailed the last storm in terms of the initial QPF pulse riding over SE MA, and then the later wrap moisture FWIW. Yes it did, good model inside24 awesome for temps too. Get that ULL back south, ULL love boat snow works for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 You might be playing naked twister with a CF though for a bit during this. I doubt it......it will probably be some usual spot like cape ann, Messenger's lawn mower and Scotts old hood. That H7 Scott posted was classic.....VVs just to my east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I doubt it......it will probably be some usual spot like cape ann, Messenger's lawn mower and Scotts old hood. That H7 Scott posted was classic.....VVs just to my east. That 2nd map he posted was wind speed...look at the first one he posted, it has good VVs all the way back to N ORH county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 95 is a north south, even numbers are east west there Mr Canada. haha yeah i actually lived there for 2 years, exit 6 stamford i should know that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Yeah I commented earlier, that the euro boosted qpf over your region....likely due to orographics. Almost like we talked about yesterday...lol. I think the qpf totals we are seeing are a "red flag" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 haha yeah i actually lived there for 2 years, exit 6 stamford i should know that It's ok.. some odd numbered ones go east-west as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 18z GFS through 36 hours looks a tad faster with the disturbance near ND than the 18z NAM, would make more sense especially with the general trends both 00z and 12z cycles showed on both models. Should be an interesting run given that it continues the theme of a faster northern stream disturbance. Big differences in their handling of the SPV at hour 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 haha yeah i actually lived there for 2 years, exit 6 stamford i should know that Just kidding with you, think the corridor get a nice 3-6 with lolls, nice snowy period, hopefully the ULL is full of vigor too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 And now GFS substantially ups the ante for places it screwed at 12Z. It's becoming so weird that you almost hope for something completely weird each run but has (as Ray said) the weirdness been exhausted? Also...CMC has been probably the most bullish and remains in that camp with the Johnny come lately Euro today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 GFS is starting to pull a Euro at 54 hours...it has a finger of decent qpf extending up through SE MA/RI/E CT and central MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I think the qpf totals we are seeing are a "red flag" More vigorous?, hoping to see a tad better 8 h flow, little anemic right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I think the qpf totals we are seeing are a "red flag" I didn't expect the euro to be so widespread with the 0.5" qpf, but you can see why it would do that. GFS looks like it's lifting the trough a little more nwd and more widespread with qpf through hr 54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 its amazing how much something can change in 6 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Wow, E MA is getting it at 60 hours...esp SE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Congrats Phil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I doubt it......it will probably be some usual spot like cape ann, Messenger's lawn mower and Scotts old hood. That H7 Scott posted was classic.....VVs just to my east. That's just depicting synoptic stuff. Don't take it literally. It sometimes won't pick up small details like CF stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Messenger is naked by hr 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 MA in the jackpot....lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Nice vortmax going underneath sne at hr 72. PV looks to do the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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