Tropical Storm Isaias

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, BlizzardNole said:

Yeah.  CoCoRaHS has numerous 8-14" rain amounts over and east of Pensacola for the last seven days.

Ah...didn't know about antecedent conditions...

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Strikes me as one of those N GOM collapse-deals, like Opal or Ivan....

Probably very half-a-cane looking if dry air and shear get shoved in at the end. If it really ramps up for a while to high end Cat 3 or something, surge will still be a big deal but mitigated somewhat if it remains a smaller storm. The main story might be where it inevitably rains 10”+ east of the eye or what’s left of it in the training bands. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

1 hour ago, jconsor said:

Side comment - I think we will see 1-3 named storms after this one with about a 50% chance of of another hurricane (likely in the subtropics).  But yeah, it's pretty comical that this one seems to be defying many of our expectations.

If it was September, maybe. But we're now in October, so I think at most, only one more named storm. There's no way we get 3 more named storms after this point, especially in an el nino.

Recent history says this will probably be the last storm of the storm. In the last 15 years, several seasons ended with the last active storm being the biggest (Sandy in 2012, Iota in 2020, and Melissa last year come to mind). 

[ROOSTA]

A prolific tornado set-up which probably will be a high impact event.