Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    19,040
    Total Members
    49,013
    Most Online
    loganboehmewx
    Newest Member
    loganboehmewx
    Joined

October 2026


MJO812
 Share

Recommended Posts

Looks like mid 30s here tonight, so I think we'll be ok. The vegetable garden will likely continue for quite awhile. 

As others have pointed out, the fall foliage season this year has been strange with some trees early and some late. Overall not as nice as last year too. I was up at Swartwood State Park in Sussex County yesterday, and trees that were a brilliant red/orange at the same time last year didn't have that color yesterday. The color was very muted. Still some nice trees here and there, but nothing like last year. Kind of a surprise too because it was supposed to be a spectacular foliage season due to the fact that we got plenty of rain in summer. Strange that last season was better after the summer drought. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s actually looking possible that we could pull off a rare two consecutive 2026 weekends with no measurable rainfall. 

IMG_8115.thumb.png.bed4aea1acd5033b0765461659e0e445.png

IMG_8116.thumb.png.dcd88506a8dda646b8f0ee4f48e9ed73.png

 

 

 

Ensembles hinting at wetter pattern 1st week of November. Maybe first signs of the wetter super Nino pattern? 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Temperatures will continue to top out mainly in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Monday could be the warmest day with highs in the middle and perhaps upper 60s. Dry conditions are likely through at least the middle of next week. 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +5.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.3°C for the week centered around October 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +3.12°C. ENSO Region 3.4 ties the all-time record set in the prior week. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. 

The SOI was -13.47 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.226 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 80% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 59.0° (1.1° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.1° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Many locations outside of New York City will be in the 30s tomorrow morning. New York City will likely be in the lower 40s. The NBM has been remarkably stable.

image.thumb.png.581666869d69aafb1a9f7e8db843281d.png

10/23/2026 23z NBM:

Allentown: 32°
Bridgeport: 38°
Danbury: 31°
Islip: 40°
New York City-Central Park: 43°
New York City-JFK Airport: 44°
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 45°
Newark: 41°
Poughkeepsie: 30°
Westhampton: 34°
White Plains: 37°

The AIFS (12z) shows 39° for Central Park. That's probably a bit too cool.

The spread (standard devation) for tomorrow's high temperature has increased.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Umm

WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 32 possible.

Isnt 32 a freeze? I thought they stopped issuing warnings after the 1st freeze.  But if only a few locations in a county got to 32, they probably still issue them until the majority of the county gets to 32.

36 here at 1150

Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Isnt 32 a freeze? I thought they stopped issuing warnings after the 1st freeze.  But if only a few locations in a county got to 32, they probably still issue them until the majority of the county gets to 32.

36 here at 1150

Yeah probably needs to be widespread 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, ForestHillWx said:

30 here; nearby sensors seem to depict local temp inversions between the higher locals and valleys. 

34 was the low here this morning on top of the hill.  Walpack bottomed out at 22.  High Point got down to 32.

Low lying / valley locations the clear winners this morning on overnight mins.  Perfect conditions for radiational cooling overnight.

Quiet weather continues for the coming week with still no rainfall for the next 7 days at least.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Many locations outside of New York City will be in the 30s tomorrow morning. New York City will likely be in the lower 40s. The NBM has been remarkably stable.

image.thumb.png.581666869d69aafb1a9f7e8db843281d.png

10/23/2026 23z NBM:

Allentown: 32°
Bridgeport: 38°
Danbury: 31°
Islip: 40°
New York City-Central Park: 43°
New York City-JFK Airport: 44°
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 45°
Newark: 41°
Poughkeepsie: 30°
Westhampton: 34°
White Plains: 37°

The AIFS (12z) shows 39° for Central Park. That's probably a bit too cool.

The spread (standard devation) for tomorrow's high temperature has increased.

Verification:

Allentown: 32°; Actual: 30°
Bridgeport: 38°; Actual: 39°
Danbury: 31°; Actual: 30°
Islip: 40°; Actual: 36°
New York City-Central Park: 43°; Actual: 44°
New York City-JFK Airport: 44°; Actual: 42°
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 45°; Actual: 48°
Newark: 41°; Actual: 39°
Poughkeepsie: 30°; Actual: 28°
Westhampton: 34°; Actual: 28°
White Plains: 37°; Actual: 39° 

Average Error: 2.4°

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites


51 / 36 and another onshore but dry day.  Hit 30.5 here this morning. Overall at or above normal the next week with a few days pushing into the 70s in the warm spots Mon / Thu - Sat and continued dry. Next shot at meaningful rain if something else doesnt materialize this week, would be towars 11/1-11/4 period as trough digs and moves into the MW.

 

GOES19-EUS-02-1000x1000.gif 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Records:
 

Highs:

EWR: 83 (2001)
NYC: 79 (2001)
LGA:  80 (2001)
JFK: 74 (2017)


Lows:

EWR: 28 (1969)
NYC: 31 (1969)
LGA: 30 (1969)
JFK: 32 (1969)

Historical:

 

1785 - A four day rain swelled the Merrimack River in New Hampshire and Massachusetts to the greatest height of record causing extensive damage to bridges and mills. (David Ludlum)

1878 - A hurricane produced widespread damage across North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, New Jersey and Pennsylvania. At Philadelphia PA, the hurricane was the worst of record. (David Ludlum)

 

1878: The Gale of 1878 was an intense Category 2 hurricane that was active between October 18 and October 25. It caused extensive damage from Cuba to New England. Believed to be the strongest storm to hit the Washington - Baltimore region since hurricane records began in 1851.

1937 - A snow squall in Buffalo NY tied up traffic in six inches of slush. (David Ludlum)

1947 - The Bar Harbor holocaust occurred in Maine when forest fires consumed homes and a medical research institute. The fires claimed 17 lives, and caused thirty million dollars damage. (David Ludlum)

1951 - Sacramento, CA, reported a barometric pressure of 29.42 inches, to establish a record for October. (The Weather Channel)

1969 - Unseasonably cold air gripped the northeastern U.S. Lows of 10 degrees at Concord, NH, and 6 degrees at Albany NY established October records. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Snow fell across northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin overnight, with five inches reported at Poplar Lake MN and Gunflint Trail MN. Thunderstorm rains caused flash flooding in south central Arizona, with street flooding reported around Las Vegas NV. Strong northwesterly winds gusting to 50 mph downed some trees and power lines in western Pennsylvania and the northern panhandle of West Virginia. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Strong winds circulating around a deep low pressure centered produced snow squalls in the Great Lakes Region, with six inches reported at Ironwood MI. Wind gusts to 80 mph were reported at State College PA. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - A storm in the western U.S. produced up to three feet of snow in the mountains around Lake Tahoe, with 21 inches reported at Donner Summit. Thunderstorms in northern California produced 3.36 inches of rain at Redding to establish a 24 hour record for October, and bring their rainfall total for the month to a record 5.11 inches. Chiefly "Indian Summer" type weather prevailed across the rest of the nation. Fifteen cities in the north central U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date as readings soared into the 70s and 80s. Record highs included 74 degrees at International Falls MN, and 86 degrees at Yankton SD. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2005 - Hurricane Wilma reached the U.S. coastline near Everglades City in Florida with maximum sustained winds near 120 mph. The hurricane accelerated across south Florida and the Miami/Fort Lauderdale area, exiting the coast later the same day. There were 10 fatalities in Florida, and nearly 6 million people lost power, the most widespread power outage in Florida history. Preliminary estimates of insured losses in Florida were over $6 billion, while uninsured losses were over $12 billion.

Link to comment
Share on other sites


EWR the last 10 days at a +1.8

 

 

Date

High

Low

Departure

14

80

64

+14

15

66

54

+2

16

75

60

+11

17

61

43

-5

18

60

38

-8

19

66

41

-2

20

70

45

+2

21

65

48

+1

22

69

48

+4

23

62

46

-1

 

New Brunswick, NJ  (+1.4) Date

High

Low

Departure

10/14

81

50

+10

10/15

68

54

+6

10/16

76

50

+8

10/17

55

33

-10

10/18

62

35

-5

10/19

68

42

+1

10/20

71

45

+5

10/21

68

38

0

10/22

71

43

+4

10/23

63

32

-7

 

NYC (+1.1) Central Park — October 14–23, 2026

Date

High

Low

Departure

14

77

64

+13

15

64

54

+1

16

72

59

+8

17

62

43

-5

18

57

41

-8

19

62

47

-2

20

67

50

+3

21

62

50

0

22

67

49

+2

23

59

47

-2

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

×
×
  • Create New...