October 2026

[donsutherland1]

12 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Insane 

Anchorage also received 0.1" snow on October 1. That was its first measurable snowfall on record of October 1.

[guinness77]

9 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Wished we lived there

I mean…you could 

I was born in Fairbanks. 

[SACRUS]

Periods of light rain moving through.

 

[MJO812]

Nice coastal storms on the gfs

[Stormlover74]

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Nice coastal storms on the gfs

A week out

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

A week out

The STJ should start ramping up as we go deeper into Autumn.

[MANDA]

31 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

The STJ should start ramping up as we go deeper into Autumn.

No matter what there is high confidence in a strong STJ developing as we head through Fall and Winter.  Almost seems like a given at this point.  Storminess will abound.  Hopefully we can time some moisture with bouts of cold air.  Lots of questions as to the amount of cold that will be available and how it evolves over the central and eastern US north of the Mason Dixon line.

I think an interesting Fall and Winter ahead but details who knows.

[TriPol]

14 minutes ago, MANDA said:

No matter what there is high confidence in a strong STJ developing as we head through Fall and Winter.  Almost seems like a given at this point.  Storminess will abound.  Hopefully we can time some moisture with bouts of cold air.  Lots of questions as to the amount of cold that will be available and how it evolves over the central and eastern US north of the Mason Dixon line.

I think an interesting Fall and Winter ahead but details who knows.

With that kind of an active STJ, this should be a hell of a winter/early spring for severe storms in the south.

[Stormlover74]

Euro dry as a bone for next 10 days

[qg_omega]

Drought pattern emerging

[JerseyWx]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Euro dry as a bone for next 10 days

Yep, my 10 day looks awesome.  Most days near 70 with sun and cool nights.  Foliage is going to start bursting.  Perfect fall weather.

[bluewave]

Models shifting to a much stronger Southeast ridge in around a week. So we could continue the drier pattern. More 80° days would be possible with enough sun and SW flow.
 

New run

Old run

[the_other_guy]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Models shifting to a much stronger Southeast ridge in around a week. So we could continue the drier pattern. More 80° days would be possible with enough sun and SW flow.
 

New run

Old run

Always searching for warmth and a strong SE ridge…

[bluewave]

7 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Always searching for warmth and a strong SE ridge…

No need to search very far since it has been the dominant pattern since March.

[MJO812]

Raining. 56 here.

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, qg_omega said:

Drought pattern emerging

No way

[MJO812]

51 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Models shifting to a much stronger Southeast ridge in around a week. So we could continue the drier pattern. More 80° days would be possible with enough sun and SW flow.
 

New run

Old run

With possible rain at times

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

No way

Warm but definitely not dry. 

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be mostly sunny with temperatures reaching the middle and upper 60s. A few locations could reach or exceed 70°. The mild weather will be short-lived, as much cooler air will poor into the region afterward. 

In its wake, New York City will see the temperature dip below 50° for the first time this season perhaps on Tuesday morning and then on Wednesday morning. Wednesday morning will be the coldest morning so far this season with the temperature tumbling into the middle and upper 40s in New York City and 30s in some distant outlying suburbs.

The week will be dry. The next chance for precipitation could be Sunday or the following Monday.
 
The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.1°C for the week centered around September 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.40°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.83°C. Both ENSO regions have set new all-time records. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. 

The SOI was -30.49 yesterday.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.264 today. 

 

[LibertyBell]

11 hours ago, SACRUS said:

Rain wise
 

Year	Total precipitation
1960	46.39"
1961	39.32"
1962	37.15"
1963	34.28"
1964	32.99"
1965	26.09"
1966	39.90"
1967	49.12"
1968	43.57"
1969	48.54"

 

 

top 15 driest years

 

Rank	Year	Annual precipitation
1	1965	26.09"
2	1964	32.99"
3	1910	33.72"
4	1935	33.85"
5	1963	34.38"
6	1970	35.29"
7	1885	35.37"
7	1895	35.37"
8	1954	35.58"
9	1892	35.60"
10	2001	35.65"

1963, 1964 and 1965 was some three year stretch we also had some great winters in the 60s, 1960-61, 1963-64 and 1966-67. Summer 1966 was pretty great too!!

11 hours ago, bluewave said:

You would have loved the 1960s with snowy winters and drought conditions the rest of the year. 
 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	T	0.4	8.3	7.1	10.1	6.1	0.1	32.0
1959-1960	0.0	0.5	15.8	2.5	1.9	18.5	0.0	39.2
1960-1961	T	0.0	18.6	16.7	18.2	1.2	T	54.7
1961-1962	0.0	T	7.7	0.6	9.6	0.2	T	18.1
1962-1963	T	T	4.5	5.3	3.7	2.8	T	16.3
1963-1964	0.0	T	11.3	13.3	14.1	6.0	T	44.7
1964-1965	0.0	0.0	3.1	14.8	2.5	2.8	1.2	24.4
1965-1966	T	0.0	T	11.6	9.8	T	0.0	21.4
1966-1967	0.0	0.0	9.1	1.4	23.6	17.4	T	51.5
1967-1968	0.0	3.2	5.5	3.6	1.1	6.1	0.0	19.5
1968-1969	0.0	T	7.0	1.0	16.6	5.6	0.0	30.2

 

The early 2010s were sort of like that too, well from 2009-10 to 2010-11 and if you want to go back to the 1990s the period from 1993 to 1996 was also very similar.

On 10/2/2026 at 10:41 PM, Evie3 said:

Here in New Jersey our drought warning is over.  There is a lingering drought watch in the southernmost area that includes Cape May, but the rest of the state is officially back  to normal:  https://dep.nj.gov/drought/current-conditions/#regional-drinking-water-supply-indicator-and-declared-water-supply-status

I have this new "lake" on the southeast side of my property surrounded by what I can only describe as a "clay pit" similar to the infamous La Brea tar pits in California that trapped various animals. I've gotten stuck in that clay pit on two different days I need to put markers up there.

On 10/2/2026 at 11:09 PM, rclab said:

Liberty if there’s an open casting call for 76 trombones you’d be a lock for the Professor Harold Hill role. As always ……
 

Yes I'm just glad this wet pattern happened in the back half of summer and not during the first half otherwise we'd be stuck with swarms of mosquitoes. Luckily the first freeze might be happening here next week!

I'm going to try and post some fall foliage pictures here let's see if they go through.

[the_other_guy]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

No need to search very far since it has been the dominant pattern since March.

Yet a couple of BN months in there including last one.

[TriPol]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

Models shifting to a much stronger Southeast ridge in around a week. So we could continue the drier pattern. More 80° days would be possible with enough sun and SW flow.
 

New run

Old run

Warm October = snowy winter

[PhiEaglesfan712]

9 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

The early 2010s were sort of like that too, well from 2009-10 to 2010-11 and if you want to go back to the 1990s the period from 1993 to 1996 was also very similar.

Don't forget about 2002-03 to 2004-05. That was an epic 3-year stretch. Also, after 2009-10 and 2010-11, you had (after 2 lean years) 2013-14 and 2014-15 to complete the Big 4.

[forkyfork]

9 hours ago, the_other_guy said:

Yet a couple of BN months in there including last one.

[bluewave]

9 hours ago, the_other_guy said:

Yet a couple of BN months in there including last one.

Last month was N to a little AN for most stations with the exception of the immediate Long Island Sound stations like BDR and LGA.  All the other months back to March were also some degree of AN.

With such extensive ridging and record CONUS warmth, there wasn’t much cooler air around. So the few cooler spots last month like LGA and BDR had to rely on lower daytime highs rather than cooler minimums. 

May managed to finish a little above even with the cooler conditions just to our West. The record warm day where parts of the area reached 100° for the first time in May put that month over the top.

So the theme has been back and forth with the warmer departures being more impressive than the cooler ones.

October looks like a continuation of the same theme. Very warm start to the month with a cool down this week. But we warm right back up into the 70s again.

Whether we reach 80° again by mid-October will be contingent on sky conditions, wind direction, and how far north the moisture near the Gulf gets.
 

 

 

 

 

 

[MJO812]

10 hours ago, TriPol said:

Warm October = snowy winter

Hopefully

Its weird not seeing any cold air anywhere in the long range gfs.  I guess thats a Strong EL Nino for you.