September Nor'Easter Obvs Thread

[CCHurricane]

2 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

BOS G50KT.  How is that cancel?  BED G40KT,  G61 KT Welfleet and on Block Island.  Exactly as fcst and what the HRRR showed.

Next thing you'll do is "we cancel the rain"  Pfft!  You do realize this is duration event and the rain does not end in ern sections until close to sunrise Tue.

I’m seeing BOS gusting to 51mph. Don’t doubt your comment, can you share where you pulled that from?

[vortex95]

15 hours ago, Snugharbor said:

Sorry for you guys who haven't gotten "in" on this, but I do have to say it blew hard last night from about Midnight-2am here on the RI coast. Outtages went from 50 to about 8K in an hour, and we lost power from 130-4am. (Still lots of local outtages but somehow we have it on...albeit generator is ready)

Still gusty but it's diminished quite a bit comparatively over the last 2-4 hours, and is far less "violent" than it was a little while ago. The sun has been peaking out with varying degrees of brightness through the clouds.

Block Island had a 70+ mph gust. But judging from the buoy forecast the PM wind is now forecast to be the same/slightly LESS than this AM....did they screw up when the worst of the wind actually was coming? It almost felt like a squall line last night for several hours, and had a really strong intensity that's really become "dailed back" since.

 

This was always going to be "takes its time" type storm, but in the end everything will verify.  Not every storm comes in hot and heavy like the Bliz of 93.

@CoastalWx take note...

[H2Otown_WX]

About to dryslot at BDL, thought I was going to having an exciting shift. Only gusting to 23 kts attm. 

[vortex95]

15 hours ago, klw said:

I know folks love making storm comparisons.  For me this has been reminding my gut of Dec 1992 in terms of nonimpact here but certainly not elsewhere. I am laid up this week so I haven't looked closely, is this a fair comparison meteorologically?  Any similarities other than impact areas?

 

 

I was just thinking of Dec 11-12, 1992...the one @CoastalWx likes to forget b/c he got royally screwed in Brockton when so many others basked in white glory, getting their biggest snowfall in nearly 10 years!

That even started w/ sig wind well before the pcpn started (reminded me of he Bliz of 78).  You know you are in for it when that happens!  Then a full day of R+ in ern MA, that turned to S+ predawn the next day and I got 18" in Woburn.  To get that much rain first and that much snow in a single event is practically unheard of.  Woonsocket RI had 7" total pcpn (20" of that snow).  That is huge amount of pcpn in the NEUS for a nor'easter in a winter month.

And it was not that extreme as far as low/high combo.  985 low stalled E of the Delmarva and a 1035 high in Quebec.  Yet coastal flooding was epic.

[WxWatcher007]

14 minutes ago, CCHurricane said:

I’m seeing BOS gusting to 51mph. Don’t doubt your comment, can you share where you pulled that from?

I posted an ob of 50kt there a page or two ago 

[vortex95]

15 hours ago, dendrite said:

That weenie Wellfleet anny had 70 earlier and it’s at 100ft. The New Shoreham is 144ft on the shore. So if it’s accurate it isn’t exactly representative of the 10m wind.

The wind data at least looks consistent.

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F8194&hours=72

When you say the weenie in Welfleet is 100 ft.  Is that is ground elevation or the anemometer height?
I say this b/c as long as the anemometer height is 10 m, it doesn't matter what the ground elevation is.  Yes, of course ground elevation relative to surrounding elevation needs to be considered, but ppl and infrastructure are still there! 

If one happens to live on a ridge/bluff, that doesn't discount it.  The former CHH radar/RAOB site sits on a bluff, and I recall comparing obs here to the CQX airport, Night and day!  CQX is not that windy of location.  HYA/FMH/PVC do much better.

Here is the BID airport.  Despite it's elevation, it is far enough inland and surrounding by trees that you are going to have sig differences to the shoreline.  I've seen this numerous times going E on 286 to Seabrook MA.  Once you get out of the trees and into the salt marshes, holy cow!
 

[vortex95]

14 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Down to 986mb as of 12z analysis. Looks like it shed the cold front, but still has the warm frontal boundary so obviously not subtropical. 

T-bone frontal fracture.  That's a Sharpio-Keyser cyclone, the ones that have the crazy winds on the backside.  Dec 9, 2005 is perhaps the best one in SNE.

[vortex95]

14 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

That was basically a category one. The fire chief at the time in Marshfield sent me a picture of the anemometer that said 90.

What about the swath of tree damage in GHG from the Bliz of 13?  Legendary you talk about that!

[CT Valley Snowman]

The overnight ramp up has not delivered here.  It's been mainly light rain and gusts to 30.  Storm total thus far about .40.  

[vortex95]

13 hours ago, CT Rain said:

I'm curious what people would like us to do.

For example, look at the call to action on the NWS coastal flood warnings and high wind warnings. Probably more "panicky" than anything a met said on air. 

Our forecast will turn out to be pretty much perfect in terms of wind gusts, impacts (scattered outages), and coastal flooding (minor to barely moderate). 

I have noticed more hype wording over times.  You will see "powerful" and "dangerous" used a lot.  This kind of wording was used much more sparingly through the 90s, and was reserved for the truly high-end events.

I got news you, all Nor'easters (and hurricanes for that matter) are powerful and dangerous.  Redundant wording.  This hurts business and commerce overall to the point we are being held hostage by the wx.  That is not good.  More is not always better.  Using "better safe than sorry" is a cop out, get-out-of-jail-free, weasel excuse.  But you have pander to the lowest common denominator these days.  But at the same it insults those would know the deal and are responsible when it comes to wx and promotes distrust in authority b/c they clang the alarm bell relentlessly.

And now supermarkets are crowded for a Nor'easter that has zero snow?  WTF?  You see the problem here.  Unnecessary panic and fear is instilled every time of inclement wx now.

And don't get me started on the use  of "catastrophic"   That is abused big time.  The problem is that it is used by default.  Impact/damage is never severe, disastrous, moderate, minor, or anything else other than "catastrophic" these days.  Ever notice that?  There is no scaling or quantification of it all anymore.

[vortex95]

12 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

I don't see this storm or have not seen this storm hyped by any local meteorologists out there. The key points of storm impacts were illustrated and highlighted well. How people decide to respond and actions taken is on them. 

In fact, I think you could even argue what measure people are taken is not in fact a bad thing but a mere positive. It illustrates increased awareness from the public, a greater trust from the public in forecasts, and people's ability to manage around inclement weather. I don't really see anything wrong with stores being "flooded" with people before a storm. I mean, in this day in age, who has the means to keep a fully stocked fridge and freezer? People are probably getting food and supplies "as needed". 

Awareness is a two way street.  You don't need to be relentlessly reminded on how "dangerous" it out out there, esp. when it is not that "dangerous" overall.  Constant negative like that wears on society, promotes anxiety, and impacts zeitgeist, among other things.  You start viewing the world as worse that is actually is, and many ppl think the wx is worse and unlike anything society has ever experienced before b/c of wx hype and the ordinary is constantly turned into the extraordinary  That is not good.  Decisions and policy are made from such false perceptions, never mind needless cancellations, as a couple of examples.
 

[psv88]

29 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

Awareness is a two way street.  You don't need to be relentlessly reminded on how "dangerous" it out out there, esp. when it is not that "dangerous" overall.  Constant negative like that wears on society, promotes anxiety, and impacts zeitgeist, among other things.  You start viewing the world as worse that is actually is, and many ppl think the wx is worse and unlike anything society has ever experienced before b/c of wx hype and the ordinary is constantly turned into the extraordinary  That is not good.  Decisions and policy are made from such false perceptions, never mind needless cancellations, as a couple of examples.
 

People died from falling trees in NYC today. 

[vortex95]

11 hours ago, jconsor said:

@vortex95 @jbenedet Would be interested to hear how would you counter Ryan and Tomer Burg's claim that this is merely a warm seclusion with no subtropical characteristics?

Personally I think this is well on its way to being subtropical.  You don't get a burst of convection like that near the center over 25C waters with thicknesses near 580 from upper-level/synoptic forcing alone like Tomer claims.

https://x.com/burgwx/status/2103912607010750893

https://x.com/RyanWeather/status/2103917149110653089

@jconsor  good questions!

It got close to subtropical status ydy.  Saying it had no characteristics of that is incorrect.  Not enough to call it a named ST storm, but not a whiff either.  And despite being shallow warm core, it is *strong* warm core w/ thickness that high.  Saw 23 C and 850, 14 C at 700 , and -3 C at 500 on the ECMWF analysis earlier on in the storm.  That is a common temp profile in a strong TS in the tropics or a hybrid system farther N,  Those 925-500 temps I just listed is what Sandy had per recon when it underwent a solid warm seclusion and became more tropical offshore the day of landfall (as a Cat 2), like the Perfect Storm did late in its existence.

A warm seclusion is the first step to ST or T transition, so why that it is said a "mere warm seclusion" is odd.  Yes, many, many occluded cyclones get a warm seclusion, but not all are the same or stop there.  And in this case, SSTs plenty warm for a ST or even T transition.  26 C as a cut off is overrated.  You can get legit ST systems w/ SSTs as low as 15 C.  Look at the Jan 2023 event off the Mid-Atlantic -- it was just a little bit farther offshore than this event, but that made all the difference I think.  I posted on that earlier on this thread along w/ a sat loop that shows a remarkable hurricane for time of year and location!  NHC ignored it operationally and called it s 60 kt STS later, but I do not agree.  65 kt HU easy.  Subtropical storms do not have a persistent defined eye w/ a solid ringeven of mdtly-deep convection.

Find me a baroclinic strong coastal storm in which the sfc low started S of the 576 thk line and wrapped, creating a closed pool of 582 thk over the center.  That's practically unheard of, at least in this part of the world.  So an outlier case, and that's why you can't treat it as "only" this or that typical.

The thing that prevented this storm from becoming total ST is that is was just a bit too close to land.  You want to see such a system 150 mi or more away from sig land b/c otherwise cooler/drier continental air keeps funneling in.  But given this storm was fcst such an outlier event climo-wise, I was cautious as to something unexpected happening here.

[CoastalWx]

2 hours ago, vortex95 said:

BOS G50KT.  How is that cancel?  BED G40KT,  G61 KT Welfleet and on Block Island.  Exactly as fcst and what the HRRR showed.

Next thing you'll do is "we cancel the rain"  Pfft!  You do realize this is duration event and the rain does not end in ern sections until close to sunrise Tue.

That was a joke lol. Trolling 

[CoastalWx]

Vortex95 needs context before quoting people 

[vortex95]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That was a joke lol. Trolling 

 

[CoastalWx]

Although winds cancelled for Kev. Another let down for him. Even I thought CT would do better overnight. Probably too inverted. 

[vortex95]

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

People died from falling trees in NYC today. 

Fallacious argument. 

The trouble w/ the "ppl are dying!" argument is that it essentially dictates that anything less than death is trivial and not worth discussing.  That is among the most vapid and intellectually lazy rebuttals around.

Can you objectively say these fatalities would not have occurred anyway if there were more reaonsble and less-hyped warnings?

Not every fatality is due to not enough warnings or alerts.  Many ppl will ignore warnings and go out/take risks despite warnings b/c they have become apathetic to the relentless hype.   Some ppl just plain resist authority/being told what to do.  And some do take warnings seriously, stay home, and a tree crashes into their home, causing a fatality.  All the warnings in the world is not going to prevent something like that from happening.

So I would avoid the high-horse, virtue signaling here and understand that more is not always better and things are not a simple 1-1 correlation when it comes to complex societal issues.
 

[Snowedin]

Another nice band rotating through with some good gusts mixed in. Honestly this storm has been fun to track and experience, especially this evening with all the rain and the classic howling wind sounds we’ve come to expect during a coastal storm. It sort of feels like we’re making up for all those missed t-storms that always seemed to fizzle out west this past summer, although nothing beats a couple good house shaking rumbles.  For now, let’s keep that firehose going!

[ineedsnow]

Very gusty at home but noticeably less in leominster but still windy.. people were wild in the stores yesterday hopefully they all stay home today to.make my day easy.. I dread working the day before we get a legit hurricane up here if everyone went nuts just over this but it would be worth it i guess. 

[TalcottWx]

It's roaring good out there now

[Ginx snewx]

16 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

It's roaring good out there now

Still only 35 ish though. Euro wind clowns are getting better and better pretty much nailed this. 

[SouthCoastMA]

3.65"

[CoastalWx]

Getting slammed 

[kdxken]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Getting slammed 

Rain?

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Rain?

Yeah lots. Must be over 6” down towards south coast. Gonna be near 4” soon. 

[CoastalWx]

Still gusting 40-45.

[moneypitmike]

At the moment, the nearby PWS are showing event totals  showing 5.64".and 5.26.

We wet.  

[Baroclinic Zone]

Rains have been unrelenting. Heavy nonstop. Must be closing in on 4”

[kdxken]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah lots. Must be over 6” down towards south coast. Gonna be near 4” soon. 

Spots in Wareham are over 4". Seems to be the jackpot.