October 2026 general discussion

[Damage In Tolland]

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

But that was a qualifier. Not to say its not warmer but We had some scorchers in the early 70s. Remember not using a wetsuit until mid October . Overall September is about a 1.5 degree rise. Still some variation warmest September was 1961 now thats an absolute torch.

 

44 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Not many cool lows this month, just seems like departures driven by high temps. Meh.

Yeah and that's generally the theme with the last 30 years vs the 30 years prior. Cooler months now are usually a result of cooler max temps while the mins are generally trying to pull the mean upward. Yeah, occasionally we get a month with some near record mins (Sep 2020), but they're pretty rare now.

I'm not trying to get into another CC debate...just stating what the data and trend has been the last 75 years. The thing is I don't think the average person understands that we recalculate the normals every 10 years. So when they see "-1F September 2026" you start seeing posts online like "so much for global warming".

Anyway...63.5F so far today. It's hard to believe, but my warmest temp this month is only 76.8F with 10 days of 70+. But it was another very safe month of mins with only one in the u30s and it's 5 straight days here of 52+ mins.

[CT Valley Snowman]

Not much sun here today so far, a bit in the morning. Sky cover forecasts have been too agressive/optimistic.  

[WinterWolf]

30 minutes ago, CT Valley Snowman said:

Not much sun here today so far, a bit in the morning. Sky cover forecasts have been too agressive/optimistic.  

For sure. Steve pointed that out a few posts ago. Bad forecasts the last couple days. 

[CoastalWx]

Trying to get my yard to dry to pick up the disaster from the storm. This sucks.

[Go Kart Mozart]

 

Euro AI looks stormy over the next two weeks.  A tough stretch for Epstein.

[Damage In Tolland]

14 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

 

Euro AI looks stormy over the next two weeks.  A tough stretch for Epstein.

Uh-oh and ooops 

[Typhoon Tip]

Teleconnectors are collapsing too.   Not sure what that's all about ...lest whether it's believable.  But the big positive PNA may be in trouble if real.   

[H2Otown_WX]

28 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Teleconnectors are collapsing too.   Not sure what that's all about ...lest whether it's believable.  But the big positive PNA may be in trouble if real.   

Octorcher?

[alex]

Our forecast says mid 20s with a chance of showers on Monday night… better not snow, that would not be good for foliage!

[mreaves]

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Trying to get my yard to dry to pick up the disaster from the storm. This sucks.

The same yard you were complaining about being too parched from the drought?

[Brewbeer]

mine did not dry out and i could not mow

[CoastalWx]

12 minutes ago, mreaves said:

The same yard you were complaining about being too parched from the drought?

Yep. Now all the leaves and sticks are plastered onto the ground. Funny how things change. 

[WxWatcher007]

2 hours ago, alex said:

Our forecast says mid 20s with a chance of showers on Monday night… better not snow, that would not be good for foliage!

I think there's a non-zero chance up our way. Maybe on the peaks though. 

[kdxken]

1 hour ago, mreaves said:

The same yard you were complaining about being too parched from the drought?

Some folks are never happy.

[kdxken]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Yep. Now all the leaves and sticks are plastered onto the ground. Funny how things change. 

 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Some folks are never happy.

He has become quite the complainer …. 

[powderfreak]

The foliage is firing as we head into October.

[DirtySnowDen]

 

I will say the Fall foliage appears to be great this year.

[alex]

Cool cloud half way up the mountain today 

[vortex95]

8 hours ago, dendrite said:

 

Yeah and that's generally the theme with the last 30 years vs the 30 years prior. Cooler months now are usually a result of cooler max temps while the mins are generally trying to pull the mean upward. Yeah, occasionally we get a month with some near record mins (Sep 2020), but they're pretty rare now.

I'm not trying to get into another CC debate...just stating what the data and trend has been the last 75 years. The thing is I don't think the average person understands that we recalculate the normals every 10 years. So when they see "-1F September 2026" you start seeing posts online like "so much for global warming".

Anyway...63.5F so far today. It's hard to believe, but my warmest temp this month is only 76.8F with 10 days of 70+. But it was another very safe month of mins with only one in the u30s and it's 5 straight days here of 52+ mins.

Good point about 30-year "normals."   That period is arbitrary and we just decided to pick that as a base b/c it fits w/ human lifetimes as to a "long time," and the ever present recency bias, meaning what is going on now and recent *is* how it always has and will be.  From a long-term climate and geological POV, that is nothing and not representative at all.  Proverbial drop in the bucket.

For instance, a full AMO cycle when it comes to Atlantic TC activity (up and down) is 50-90 years based on TC activity going back to the mid-19th century, so 30-year normals fall flat here.  How about base conditions when it comes to ENSO?  In the last 30 years, the base state of ENSO has become more La Nina (see RONI graph attached).  Before that (going back to 1950), it was more El Nino base, but given we do not have enough or accurate measurements overall prior to this period to fully quantify ENSO states, we do not know the full cycle here, let alone if there is coherent one.  So again, 30-year normals fall flat.

Also, when calculating changes over time, I have seen some manipulation to give desired results.  For instance, I saw a current temp anomaly plot for Australia from the BoM, and it said using normals 1961-1990.  Well, you see the issue here, given mean warming since 1850, using normals farther back will give you greater temps anomalies to current.  So what is the "correct" base reference here as to what 30-year normal period to use historically?  Why not a 40-year, 50?, 100?

And using the Industrial Revolution as a start point as if this point is what is "normal" for the globe overall?  That is ridiculous and cherry-picking given the geological record.  There are not only Milankovitch cycles, which work in the 10,000s of years, but also there are shorter solar cycles w/ the Sun -- Bray (~2500 yr cycle) and Eddy (~1000 yr cycle).  So again what is "normal" can not be determined in just 30 years.  It is square pegs round holes.

And yet another factor,  how standards/practices/technology change over time.  One of the most obvious in wx?  What we call a TC now vs. decades ago, which makes it looks like the numbers of named storms is steadily increasing.  And not to exclude snow weenies, how about this?
https://news.ucar.edu/14009/snowfall-measurement-flaky-history

For temp, it used to be glass bulb thermometers, now it is largely digital.  One thing about digital is that is can record continuous temps, and thus you can start doing calculations in many, many time periods.  It used to be hourly for a day, but now you can go down to the min or even more.  When calculating avgs now, you can pick and chose and each one can give different results.  Also, digital can record instantaneous spikes in temp.  Yes, ASOS uses a 5-min temp avg, but not all temp sensors out there do this.  So more absolute extremes in temp are recorded, and this influence record temps for a given location, and sometimes are used new records when it is local artificial heat source contamination.

 

[vortex95]

9 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Fake cold. 45 for you, 24 for the clown with the grey bushy eyebrows in Bakersville.

If the 850 is NOT -20 C and below and 500 heights below 500 dm, @CoastalWxdoes not want to hear it!  You'd be surprised what shallow "fake" low-level cold can do, so don't diss it!   

[vortex95]

7 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Trying to get my yard to dry to pick up the disaster from the storm. This sucks.

[Typhoon Tip]

Adding the obvious…

When the climate is rising(falling) along a non-linear curve any fixed period of linear average thus becomes a false reference  

 

[Typhoon Tip]

4 hours ago, H2Otown_WX said:

Octorcher?

Hard to say…

I mean the signal before was pretty significant so coming back to neutral signifies collapse so to speak, but it doesn’t necessarily mean a warmer than normal pattern.  

At the moment the look resembles a 36 hour cool followed by 36 hour warm transitory 

[DirtySnowDen]

18 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Hard to say…

I mean the signal before was pretty significant so coming back to neutral signifies collapse so to speak, but it doesn’t necessarily mean a warmer than normal pattern.  

At the moment the look resembles a 36 hour cool followed by 36 hour warm transitory 

6.9 or dare, I say, 7 on the [insert combat club] scale for foilage this season.

this season will not be a 5/7.

[vortex95]

7-day WPC total pcpn shows what one would expect in strong El Nino.  However, i do not see any signs in the next week of the STJ dominating or emerging.

Miller As will be our SAVOIR this winter! 
 

[CoastalWx]

3 hours ago, vortex95 said:

7-day WPC total pcpn shows what one would expect in strong El Nino.  However, i do not see any signs in the next week of the STJ dominating or emerging.

Miller As will be our SAVOIR this winter! 
 

Those are Miller Meh’s here typically. Compares to the mid Atlantic anyways.

[dendrite]

Miller lite?

[dendrite]

Min of 54° to start Octorcher