Strong Nor'Easter/Hybrid Storm Late September 2026

[Rjay]

There's a good possibility of a impactful storm for the subforum this weekend.  If the storm comes close enough we can expect rain and strong winds.  The largest impacts will likely be significant coastal flooding over several high tide cycles and severe beach erosion.  This storm will also occur during astronomical high tides.  This has the potential to be a dangerous storm for the coast and an impactful storm elsewhere depending on exact track and strength. 

Enjoy tracking the event with us.

[wthrmn654]

This one's going hurt me

[Big Jims Videos]

It's every bit of this here at the beach.  

[Rjay]

Strong east winds for days ahead of this storm will pile water up against the shore.  A euro track would be no bueno for the coast.

[wthrmn654]

Bye bye sand that's been mostly spared the past few winters for some areas!

[wthrmn654]

18z euro is such a slow storm jeez

[LCPhotowerx]

This should be "Fun" for Staten Island.

[MANDA]

At a minimum this upcoming storm was always going to be about a coastal flood threat and strong onshore flow with possible gales.  Trends continue to support this.  Coastal warnings and advisories are already posted and will likely be extended past the current expiration times.  Strong onshore flow for several days / numerous high tide cycles along with a full moon.  Still looks to me like the Jersey shore and L.I. Sound get the worst of the coastal flooding / erosion as far as this sub forum are concerned.   Eventual surface evolution will determine if this goes past minor / to moderate coastal flooding.   Surface evolution will also determine how far inland rain and gusty winds get if they make it inland at all.  Complex evolution yet to be determined.  If EURO persists with 00Z cycle tonight and is doing something similar at 12Z tomorrow then threat for more effects further inland would increase.  Too soon to tell.  Something interesting to watch this over the next few days.  

[wthrmn654]

Let's see what the gfs says now....

[wthrmn654]

And just when you thought gfs was coming west like last run it goes back east 

[TriPol]

The 00Z GFS has shifted the developing low a bit farther east than the 18Z run, at least in these early frames.

On the 18Z GFS, by early Friday the center was tucked closer to roughly the 70°W corridor. On the new 00Z run, the F48 center is still farther offshore, around the upper-60s west longitude, so call it roughly 100 to 150 miles east of where the prior run was trying to organize the cyclone at a comparable stage.

That is not a huge jump, but it is definitely not another westward correction yet.

The important part is that the blocking high is still very strong, so an initially farther-east low does not necessarily mean the later retrograde will also be farther east. With this setup, the bigger question is still where the storm gets captured and starts bending back.

So, early read:

18Z: farther west early.
00Z: modest eastward shift early.
Block: still very much there.

The F60-F84 frames will tell us whether that eastward difference survives or whether the 00Z run bends it back toward the 18Z/Euro idea.

[TriPol]

Is there any way to increase the maximum file size of an upload? 52.47 kB isn't really a lot.

[MJO812]

Overnight runs trended weaker and further east. Lets see what today brings. 

[Rjay]

A snoozefest is in the realm of possibilities 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Rjay said:

A snoozefest is in the realm of possibilities 

Yep euro again coming east. I want it to be dry sunday. Im walking in the Tunnels to Towers 5k event. 

[weathermedic]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Yep euro again coming east. 

Windshield wiper effect

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, weathermedic said:

Windshield wiper effect

Not sure. Euro looks like it was too amplified.  

[weathermedic]

Let's wait and see what the 12Z data shows

[ForestHillWx]

For an in my back yard take, we have our annual fall fest/kids bday party set for Saturday; but if it’s going to come, let’s get it cranking! 

[wthrmn654]

Euro was west.  Precip is up at 6z... Tony

[wthrmn654]

This has and will likely always be a eastern Nassau County all of Suffolk County storm rain wise, with region wide erosion and coastal flooding with some wind for everyone else. 

[wthrmn654]

I mean here is the 6z eps and gefs at hour 90 for both they both look, to my eyes heavier on the western side of things track wise. One of these models is going be more right just who is still unknown. 

 

It's 00z Sunday but still just an example

[FPizz]

ICON $ shot 

[BobbyHolikWillFindYou]

10 minutes ago, FPizz said:

ICON $ shot 

My flat roof can't take much more waterboarding at this point. This is terrible.

[Brian5671]

12z GFS is bone dry for the tri-state

[qg_omega]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

12z GFS is bone dry for the tri-state

King GFS is back, leading the way on this threat

[GaWx]

 I have a family member planning to visit NYC Thu-Sun.
 Is it going to be bad enough for him to consider canceling?
 What are the chances of major coastal flooding causing a big mess through much of NYC? TIA

[NEG NAO]

12Z GFS is a complete miss to the east -  very little precip west of Long Island

12Z Icon is an impactful storm for most of the metro - moderate to heavy rain

The reason for the difference is the placement of the HP in Canada - the HP on the Icon stays north of the storm blocking it into the coast - HP on the GFS is northwest of us in south Canada - not blocking the storm movement to the north and preventing it from getting too close to the coast

One constant is the strong winds - wouldn't be surprised if there are high wind warnings issued

[NJwx85]

4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

12Z GFS is a complete miss to the east -  very little precip west of Long Island

12Z Icon is an impactful storm for most of the metro - moderate to heavy rain

The reason for the difference is the placement of the HP in Canada - the HP on the Icon stays north of the storm blocking it into the coast - HP on the GFS is northwest of us in south Canada - not blocking the storm movement to the north and preventing it from getting too close to the coast

One constant is the strong winds - wouldn't be surprised if there are high wind warnings issued

2-4” of rain wouldn’t have a high impact around here, especially in the spread out fashion. Winds and coastal flooding look to be the main concerns.

[Snowlover11]

I’ll be in Atlantic City Thursday thru Sunday at the very lease should have some big wave action.