September Discobs 2026

[high risk]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

GFS blipped but so far all the other 12z runs, meso and global, look pretty solid.

     Yeah, it's pretty clear that it won't be the 3-5 day event that guidance had been showing, but most of us should still get a nice soaking between now and Wednesday morning.  (And there could even be a backdoor sneak attack from the coastal on Saturday if you want to buy into the ECMWF.)

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z 3K NAM

[midatlanticweather]

Quite a good amount of rain today. 0.62 out here in Purcellville!

Just to my South cashed in with 1.5 inches or more!

 

[scope1]

heavy rain

[JenkinsJinkies]

3 hours ago, frd said:

WPC cut rainfall way back. 

Days 1 to 3 show a drastic reduction DC North and East,  while the days 4/5 and 6/7 are whiffs.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

They gotta be smoking something really strong to go against the major models.

[EastCoast NPZ]

1.28" this afternoon.  Shocked we did so well.  

3.17" for the month; the first time I've exceeded 3" since May (there you go Raven).

[weatherCCB]

0.22” yesterday morning 

0.78” today

off to a good start for the week

[Eskimo Joe]

Almost 1" at the Potomac mesonet site, but none of the spil moisture probes saw an increase. We are dry.

[TSSN+]

Besides some light drizzle rain not much. Likely getting under .50” for this amazing event 

[CAPE]

Area of rain weakening as it has moved east, as modeled. Still getting some paltry leftovers. Another 0.15" for a total of 0.30" for this "event"

[MN Transplant]

0.37”, which is fine 

[SnowtoRain]

0.04"

[Jebman]

On 9/16/2026 at 10:14 AM, WxUSAF said:

6z euro ai said one of his projects should be building an ark 

You are going to need one if you live in the Mid Atlantic or the Southeast. Virginia, DMV Region, the Carolinas, Georgia, Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, Tennessee, Kentucky and possibly Louisiana and Missouri.

Texas is safely well west of The Plume and this is an extreme example of an east-based El Nino.

Austin will get normal precip thru May 2027. That is to say, occasional drizzles and light rains and cold as shyte come Feb maybe a light icing.

But the Southeast and Mid Atlantic - Do NOT be living near creeks and rivers. They will flood, some will be floods the likes of which no one can remember. Get an ark or build an ark. You're gonna need it!

This is an historic Nino. It will bring torrential rains, over and over and over and over and over and over again. Soils will hypersaturate then the runoff will flood exuberantly, sweeping away people, cars, trucks, construction equipment, fences, houses big buildings and entire communities. Some places will remain underwater for weeks.

This El Nino means BUSINESS.

[AnEndlessMaze]

1 hour ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

1.28" this afternoon.  Shocked we did so well.  

3.17" for the month; the first time I've exceeded 3" since May (there you go Raven).

Wow we only got 0.19” up here, though it’s still drizzling.

[dailylurker]

It looks like about  .43 here in my yard. Not bad. It came down heavy around 5. 

[Rhino16]

Really gloomy day with some mist but nothing measurable. Hopefully this event isn’t a dud, but the coast seems to not like the rain. Interested to see how windy it gets.

[EastCoast NPZ]

59 minutes ago, AnEndlessMaze said:

Wow we only got 0.19” up here, though it’s still drizzling.

The stripe of good rains running west to east was pretty narrow.  Nature smiled on me today.