September 2026

[MarcmmKU]

Looks like we'll see a return to 80s and higher dew points first few days of October. This happens nearly every year now. @bluewavewhat was the last time we had an october without at least one 80 F reading?

[PhiEaglesfan712]

14 minutes ago, MarcmmKU said:

Looks like we'll see a return to 80s and higher dew points first few days of October. This happens nearly every year now. @bluewavewhat was the last time we had an october without at least one 80 F reading?

Depends on your location, but for most of the area, it's either 2020 or 2022. (However, both years had very warm starts to November.)

[MarcmmKU]

3 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Depends on your location, but for most of the area, it's either 2020 or 2022. (However, both years had very warm starts to November.)

Oh right I remember october 2022 was delightfully cool and crisp. No ugly 80s rearing their heads.

[MJO812]

[TriPol]

1 hour ago, NEG NAO said:

GFS/Canadian/Ukie Vs. Euro's - the HP location will have the final say IMO

 

Even with the strong NE flow today the warm water temps and breaks of sun allowed North Central NJ temps this afternoon to reach 70 expect the same right into the weekend - Upton not expecting much rain this weekend only 40% chance of showers according to PM update

ZFP from KOKX

 

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We have the same argument every winter and the EURO usually more or less runs correct.

[TriPol]

57 minutes ago, MarcmmKU said:

Oh right I remember october 2022 was delightfully cool and crisp. No ugly 80s rearing their heads.

Warm October = Cold Winter

[Brian5671]

10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gets going early

[Yanksfan]

ICON came in way west.

[SnoSki14]

Just now, Yanksfan said:

ICON came in way west.

RGEM was coming in west too. Think gfs starts to cave. 

[TriPol]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

RGEM was coming in west too. Think gfs starts to cave. 

I'd say its time to get bread and milk, but there isn't going to be any snow.

[SnoSki14]

23 minutes ago, TriPol said:

I'd say its time to get bread and milk, but there isn't going to be any snow.

Substantial and laughable shift with GFS. That model is a dumpster fire

[Dan76]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

Substantial and laughable shift with GFS. That model is a dumpster fire

Yup playing follow the leader lol

[Brian5671]

11 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Substantial and laughable shift with GFS. That model is a dumpster fire

It's amazing some haven't figured that out yet-its the same ol story every time

[NJwx85]

The threat of a low to moderate impact event is high. It remains to be seen if the idea of a stronger system materializes. 

[Stormlover74]

19 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Substantial and laughable shift with GFS. That model is a dumpster fire

Lol

[NJwx85]

1 hour ago, TriPol said:

Warm October = Cold Winter

Cold winters and snowy winters are not the same.

[NJwx85]

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Lol

The day before Sandy, the GFS had it land falling in Maine.

[NJwx85]

On Halloween in 2024 it was 85 degrees here and we had very little snow that Winter FWIW.

[Big Jims Videos]

Already gusting to 35 by me at the squan inlet. It's nasty out. Beaches are gonna take a hit. At least. 

[MJO812]

46 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

It's amazing some haven't figured that out yet-its the same ol story every time

Except for the last blizzard lol

[MJO812]

10 hours ago, Poker2015 said:

Going to a wedding on the beach on Saturday in Asbury Park. How's mid afternoon looking? We got a chance of being clear until Saturday night?

No unfortunately 

[nycwinter]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Substantial and laughable shift with GFS. That model is a dumpster fire

gfs back to being the goofus..

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow and part of Thursday will be variably cloudy. A few locations could see a shower tomorrow, but dry weather should be predominant. Highs should reach the lower and middle 60s.

Some periods of rain and showers are possible late Friday into the weekend. The extent of the precipitation will depend on the track of a developing storm. For now, the system looks to pass far enough from the region to produce lighter amounts of precipitation. Uncertainty still exists in terms of track and timing. Temperatures will remain unseasonably cool through the weekend with highs mainly in the lower and middle 60s. 
 
The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.0°C for the week centered around September 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.73°C. Both ENSO regions have tied their all-time warmest anomalies. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. 

The SOI was -9.86 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.201 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 65% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 68.6° (0.6° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.6° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

[wthrmn654]

So nice to see blue on model runs again up in Canada area!  Winter is coming!