September 2026

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 94 (1970)
NYC: 95 (1914)
LGA: 93 (1970)
JFK: 91 (1980)

Lows:

EWR: 44 (1997)
NYC: 41 (1904)
LGA: 47 (1962)
JFK: 41 (1962)

Historical:
 

1890 - A severe hailstorm struck Strawberry, AZ. Fives days after the storm hail still lay in drifts 12 to 18 inches deep. (The Weather Channel)

1913 - Des Moines, IA, experienced their earliest freeze of record. (The Weather Channel)

1946: A trace of snow fell at Denver, CO. This marked the start of their longest snow season on record at 263 days through 6/11/1947 when a trace of snow fell. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1956: Hurricane Flossy nears the Texas Coast

1961 - Hurricane Esther made a near complete circle south of Cape Cod. The hurricane then passed over Cape Cod and hit Maine. Its energy was largely spent over the North Atlantic Ocean, however, heavy rains over Maine resulted in widespread local flooding of cellars, low roads, and underpasses. (David Ludlum)

 

1974: Canadian high pressure brought record chill from the upper Midwest to the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Temperatures dropped below freezing for three consecutive nights damaging crops in areas. In Illinois, frost killed almost all of the soybean crop and 40% of the corn crop north of I-80. Total statewide damage was estimated between $200 and $400 million dollars.
Necedah and Mauston, WI recorded their coldest September temperatures on record with 18° and 20° respectively. Other daily record lows included: St. Cloud, MN: 18°, Grand Forks, ND: 20°, Fargo, ND: 23°, Duluth, MN: 23°, Sioux Falls, SD: 24°, Rochester, MN: 24°, Madison, WI: 25°, Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN: 26°, Waterloo, IA: 26°, Green Bay, WI: 27°, Ste. St. Marie, MI: 28°, Toledo, OH: 29°, Detroit, MI: 30°, Dubuque, IA: 31°, Rockford, IL: 31°, La Crosse, WI: 32°, Milwaukee, WI: 32° °F. (Ref. Additional Temperatures Listed On This Link)

1975: Hurricane Eloise made landfall in the Florida panhandle with maximum sustained winds of 125 mph and a minimum central pressure of 955 millibars or 28.20 inches of mercury. Panama City, FL reported a gust of 155 mph. Storm surge of 6 to 12 feet extended eastward to Port St. Joe, and tides 2 to 3 feet above normal were observed as far south as Tampa and Naples. The highest reported rainfall was 14.90 inches at Eglin AFB. Rainfall elsewhere to the west of the Apalachicola River ranged from 4 to 8 inches. Damage in northwest Florida was estimated at $150 million. About 20,000 people were evacuated in advance. Two weak tornadoes and several waterspouts were reported in the Panhandle. As the storm moved north, high winds and heavy rains led to power outages, damage and flooding. Parts of Alabama were without electricity for two weeks. The remnants moved through the Mid-Atlantic bringing flooding rains of 3 to 10 inches. Two miles south-southeast of Westminster, MD picked up 14.23 inches. The highest rainfall was a week before when Eloise passed north of Puerto Rico. Dos Bocas received 33.29 inches. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1983 - Forty-one cities reported record cold temperatures during the morning. Houston, TX, hit 50 degrees, and Williston ND plunged to 19 degrees. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Hurricane Emily, the first hurricane to roam the Carribean in nearly six years, made landfall over the Dominican Republic late in the day, packing 125 mph winds. Emily killed three persons and caused thirty million dollars damage. A record high of 92 degrees at Miami FL was their fifth in a row. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - An early morning thunderstorm produced baseball size hail at Plainview, in Hale County TX. Late in the evening more thunderstorms in the Southern High Plains Region produced wind gusts to 75 mph at Plainview TX and Crosby TX. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Hurricane Hugo quickly lost strength over South Carolina, but still was a tropical storm as it crossed into North Carolina, just west of Charlotte, at about 7 AM. Winds around Charlotte reached 69 mph, with gusts to 99 mph. Eighty percent of the power was knocked out to Charlotte and Mecklenburg County. Property damage in North Carolina was 210 million dollars, and damage to crops was 97 million dollars. The strongest storm surge occurred along the southern coast shortly after midnight, reaching nine feet above sea level at ocean Isle and Sunset Beach. Hugo killed one person and injured fifteen others in North Carolina. Strong northwesterly winds ushered unseasonably cold air into the north central U.S., in time for the official start of autumn, at 8" 20 PM (CDT). Squalls produced light snow in northern Wisconsin. Winds in Wisconsin gusted to 52 mph at Rhinelander. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

 

1994: A nor’easter wreaked havoc on coastal MD. 50-mph winds (gusts to 79 mph) destroyed 100’s of tents/vending areas at the end-of-summer Sunfest in Ocean City. Windblown fires burned several shops along the boardwalk; 9 foot waves flooded other areas. Damage up to $5 million. (Ref. Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2011 Accord Pub. 2010, USA)

1995: A strong cold front pushed across the Midwest, bringing with it one of the earliest freezes on record. In Iowa, temperatures dipped to as low as 24° over the northwest and sub-freezing temperatures lasted nearly eight hours. Crop maturation was behind schedule so this freeze caused significant damage, with soybeans the hardest hit. About $195 million dollars worth of soybeans were lost. Drought had already taken its toll on the corn crop so the freeze did not aversely affect the corn too much.
Chicago, IL experienced their earliest freeze on record as the mercury dipped to 32°. The low of 29° tied the record low for the month of September at Dodge City, KS. Further north, Jump River and Cashton, WI head their earliest measurable snowfall on record with 1.5 inches and 0.5 of an inch respectively. Other daily record lows included: Rapid City, SD: 19°, Bismarck, ND: 20°, Aberdeen, SD: 20°, Valentine, NE: 23°, Fargo, ND: 23°-Tied, Huron, SD: 24°, North Platte, NE: 24°, Scottsbluff, NE: 24°, Grand Island, NE: 25°, Sioux City, IA: 25°, Norfolk, NE: 26°, Lincoln, NE: 27°, Concordia, KS: 29°, Goodland, KS: 30°-Tied, Omaha, NE: 31°, Topeka, KS: 31°, Des Moines, IA: 31°, Kansas City, MO: 31 °F. (Ref. Additional Temperatures Listed On This Link)

1998: Hurricane Georges moved across Hispaniola killing over 580 people, mainly due to flash flooding and subsequent mud slides in high terrain regions. Damage estimates from the storm exceeded $1 billion dollars. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2005 - For the first time in the historical record, two hurricanes reached category-5 intensity in the Gulf of Mexico in a single season as Hurricane Rita intensified before making landfall (Katrina and Rita).

2006 - The tristate area of Missouri, Illinois, and Kentucky was struck by the worst tornado outbreak in the recorded history during the month of September. One supercell produced a long-track F4 tornado across southeastern Missouri into southwestern Illinois. This tornado traveled 27.5 miles.

[MANDA]

It was 88 years ago yesterday.  Can't even imagine if something similar today.  Rapid forward speed was unprecedented and aided in keeping intensity up, piling up surge and making the eastern semi-circle truly violent well inland into New England.  L.I. landfall pressure was on par with Sandy in NJ.  Other big hurricanes followed 1938 affecting the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast (1944, Hazel, Donna, Carol, Bob) but 1938 was in a class by itself.  As far as population impacts and damage (wind and surge) I'd have to say Sandy comes in second.

[TriPol]

I have no idea what the 12z GFS is smoking, but it brings our nor'easter up the coast and slams it into Maine then has it at the same latitude as New Jersey.

[MANDA]

1 hour ago, TriPol said:

I have no idea what the 12z GFS is smoking, but it brings our nor'easter up the coast and slams it into Maine then has it at the same latitude as New Jersey.

Best bet with this is to watch trends on EURO/EPS/AI.  GFS not going to handle this with any kind of consistency for a few more days yet.  Going to be a very complex evolution and exactly how it plays out will determine who gets what.  I do feel confident in minor to moderate coastal flooding with large onshore fetch over 3-4 high tide cycles with full moon aiding.  Still think best chances are along NJ coast, LI Sound and SE New England.  All depending on ultimate evolution though.  Interesting to watch in the days ahead.

[NEG NAO]

43 minutes ago, TriPol said:

I have no idea what the 12z GFS is smoking, but it brings our nor'easter up the coast and slams it into Maine then has it at the same latitude as New Jersey.

The Canadian at 12Z basically agrees with it - that HP in far southeast near our border in Canada keeps us in the clear

[Brian5671]

Agree on Euro/EPS/Euro AI leading the way (as they often do on nor easter type storms)

[NEG NAO]

3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Agree on Euro/EPS/Euro AI leading the way (as they often do on nor easter type storms)

I disagree right now because of the 12Z Canadian and the location of the strong HP

[NJwx85]

50 minutes ago, TriPol said:

I have no idea what the 12z GFS is smoking, but it brings our nor'easter up the coast and slams it into Maine then has it at the same latitude as New Jersey.

Because it occludes. 

[NEG NAO]

12 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Because it occludes. 

the location of the HP in Canada is what will decide the track of the LP - the HP on the 6Z Euro-AI is a few hundred miles north northeast of the GFS and Canadian location  - makes a difference

EC-AIFS Model – MSLP & Precip (Rain/Frozen) for CONUS | Tropical Tidbits - go to hour 120

[NEG NAO]

49 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Best bet with this is to watch trends on EURO/EPS/AI.  GFS not going to handle this with any kind of consistency for a few more days yet.  Going to be a very complex evolution and exactly how it plays out will determine who gets what.  I do feel confident in minor to moderate coastal flooding with large onshore fetch over 3-4 high tide cycles with full moon aiding.  Still think best chances are along NJ coast, LI Sound and SE New England.  All depending on ultimate evolution though.  Interesting to watch in the days ahead.

its only 90 hours away - in another day and a half we will be tracking it with the Mesoscale models

[FPizz]

Ukie looks similar to CMC/Gfs

[MJO812]

Euro AI

[NEG NAO]

7 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Ukie looks similar to CMC/Gfs

still enough time for anything to happen in regards to the track of the LP IMO - Upton and Mount Holly leaving their options open - greatest risk with this is coastal flooding

[NEG NAO]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro AI

the strong HP is in a better position north of the storm in Canada blocking the LP back into the coast further south which the Canadian and GFS does not do with the HP a few hundred miles southwest of the Euro position

[FPizz]

6 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

still enough time for anything to happen in regards to the track of the LP IMO - Upton and Mount Holly leaving their options open - greatest risk with this is coastal flooding

Agreed with that.  We've seen this time and time again at this hour.

[qg_omega]

48 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Agree on Euro/EPS/Euro AI leading the way (as they often do on nor easter type storms)

Think they are out to lunch on this one

[Brian5671]

Euro AI would dump a ton of rain over the tristate

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Think they are out to lunch on this one

5 posted yet ?

[MJO812]

Courtesy of another forum

Jeez much further west

[MANDA]

46 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

its only 90 hours away - in another day and a half we will be tracking it with the Mesoscale models

GFS flip flops on every single run.  It is useless at this time frame IMO.  Hopefully by 12Z Thursday or 00Z Friday it has a clue.

EURO and EURO AI has been more consistent.  Complex evolution that involves a capture so options on final outcome are many at this point.  I'm favoring a closer in solution based off superior Euro modeling.

[wxman]

4 to 8 weeks and we can start thinking about thinking about snow.  Nice pregame. 

[FPizz]

26 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Euro AI would dump a ton of rain over the tristate

1.5-2.5"

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, FPizz said:

1.5-2.5"

Yeah Boston gets the big rains

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Yeah Boston gets the big rains

Yep it occludes

[steve392]

Incredible chilly winds to start off the first day of Fall.  Just incredible outside right now. 

[NJwx85]

On the Euro, you would be looking at a potentially major coastal flooding event. Tides are already running above average because of the persistent Easterly flow and you would be looking at 30-40kts winds beginning Thursday evening, increasing to 40-45kts by Friday evening. Winds subside over the weekend but the Easterly flow remains so the water really has no chance to drain out. It looks particularly bad on the Sound.

[MJO812]

Eps is further west

[SnoSki14]

12 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

On the Euro, you would be looking at a potentially major coastal flooding event. Tides are already running above average because of the persistent Easterly flow and you would be looking at 30-40kts winds beginning Thursday evening, increasing to 40-45kts by Friday evening. Winds subside over the weekend but the Easterly flow remains so the water really has no chance to drain out. It looks particularly bad on the Sound.

Full moon too. Yes it would be ugly for the coasts.  

[NEG NAO]

18 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Eps is further west

GFS/Canadian/Ukie Vs. Euro's - the HP location will have the final say IMO

 

Even with the strong NE flow today the warm water temps and breaks of sun allowed North Central NJ temps this afternoon to reach 70 expect the same right into the weekend - Upton not expecting much rain this weekend only 40% chance of showers according to PM update

ZFP from KOKX

 

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[MJO812]

27 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

GFS/Canadian/Ukie Vs. Euro's - the HP location will have the final say IMO

 

Even with the strong NE flow today the warm water temps and breaks of sun allowed North Central NJ temps this afternoon to reach 70 expect the same right into the weekend - Upton not expecting much rain this weekend only 40% chance of showers according to PM update

ZFP from KOKX

 

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That will change if the GFS moves towards the Euro.