September 2026

[Stormlover74]

First week looks above average

 

[jm1220]

3 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

First week looks above average

 

GFS setting up quite the contrast to start the month. 90s-100 around DC, 60s in Boston. Ring of Fire storms around the ridge also a possibility, maybe a well timed derecho.

[Stormlover74]

Interesting to be this bullish 4 days out

[Stormlover74]

[qg_omega]

On 8/29/2026 at 11:32 AM, Stormlover74 said:

Interesting to be this bullish 4 days out

Yup wrong

[Stormlover74]

14 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Yup wrong

Why?

[NEG NAO]

15 hours ago, qg_omega said:

Yup wrong

Still the same severe chances - updated a few hours ago

[weathermedic]

Nice write up about the severe weather potential around here from OKX AFD this morning:

The main focus of concern will come this afternoon into early
this evening. A warm front will lift north of the area this
morning, but only for a brief time. Strengthening high pressure
across eastern Canada into New England will send the front back
to the southwest as a backdoor cold front late this afternoon
into this evening. Winds will back around to the east behind it.
While there is some uncertainty as to how much the airmass will
destabilize in the warm sector today, HREF mean SBCAPE values
are still 1000-2000 J/KG across the marginal and slight risk
areas. Greatest instability will be north and west of the NYC
metro. Additionally, there is 40-50kt of deep-layer shear and
decent directional shear 0-3km. SPC has included part of the
area in a low probability for tornadoes (less than 5 percent).
However, mid-level lapse rates are marginal around 6C.

The flood threat remains low with the area under a marginal risk
of excessive rainfall. This is for an isolated flash flood
threat. While the airmass is loaded with moisture, PW values
around 2 inches, there is decent storm motion in the westerly
flow aloft. Training does not seem likely in this event. SPC
HREF probabilities are greater than 50 percent for an 1" in 3
hours, but less than 10 percent for 3" in 3 hours.

Much of the strong to severe convection should drop south and
west of the area around or shortly after 00Z (8 PM).

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
An easterly flow will result in a much more stable airmass
across the area on Wednesday. The frontal boundary is expected
to stay south and west of the region before starting to move
back in Wednesday night into Thursday as a warm front. SPC has
the western half of the area in a marginal risk for severe
weather, mainly due to some uncertainty with how far south and
west the front gets. Right now, expecting mainly scattered
showers for the western half of the forecast area.

Greater coverage of showers and thunderstorms is expected
Wednesday night into Thursday morning with the warm front
lifting across the area. The airmass will then warm up and
destabilize Thursday in the warm sector with another chance of
strong to severe convection with the cold front late Thursday
afternoon/evening. SPC has western portions of the area under a
marginal/slight risk and WPC has the entire area under a marginal
risk of excessive rainfall. Details should fall better into
line in the next 24h.

[weathermedic]

[bluewave]

September getting off to a high dewpoint start.

 

 

[SACRUS]

74 / 73 mainly cloudy and passing areas of light rain to north.  The heat wont make it through the mainly cloudy skies here despite the ridge and 850 MB temps >18c the next 2 days.  Any breaks in the clouds could see temps spike to the upper 80s.   Weekend is onshore flow dry and hoping its sunny but temps in the 70s to low 80s inland.  (9/8) Beyond there overall near to above normal .

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 98 (2010)
NYC: 97 (1953)
LGA: 96 (2010)
JFK: 92 (2012)



Lows:


EWR: 50 (1934)
NYC: 51 (1869)
LGA:  55 (1967)
JFK: 54 (1985)


Historical:

 

1859: One of the largest geomagnetic storms on record occurred on this day in 1859.

1862: The Battle of Ox Hill (or Chantilly) is also known as the only major Civil War battle to have been fought during a storm. “A severe thunderstorm erupted, resulting in limited visibility and an increased dependence on the bayonet, as the rain soaked the ammunition of the infantry and made it useless.” From Taylor, Paul. He Hath Loosed the Fateful Lightning: The Battle of Ox Hill (Chantilly), September 1, 1862.

 

1869: Cleveland Abbe issued the first Weather Bulletin for the city of Cincinnati, Ohio. It contained a few observations telegraphed from distant observers and the “probabilities” for the next day. The bulletin was written by hand.

1894 - A forest fire driven by high winds burned down the town of Hinkley, MN, killing 418 persons. (David Ludlum)

1894: The Great Hinckley Fire, which burned an area of at least 200,000 acres or perhaps more than 250,000 acres including the town of Hinckley, Minnesota occurred on this day. The official death count was 418 though the actual number of fatalities was likely higher. 

1897 - Hailstone drifts six feet deep were reported in Washington County, IA. (The Weather Channel)

1914 - The town of Bloomington, MI, was deluged with 9.78 inches of rain in 24 hours to establish a state record. (31st-1st) (The Weather Channel)

1928: Leslie Gray from the Weather Bureau in San Franciso was the first weather forecaster to be deployed to a wildfire.

1935: The 1935 Labor Day Hurricane began intensifying from a tropical storm early in the day to a Category 2 by the end of this day. Over the next 24 hours the cyclone would go through "bombogenesis" intensifying to a Category 5 storm with maximum sustained winds estimated at 160 mph with gusts exceeding 200 mph. This was the first Category 5 storm to hit the U.S. The records aren't good enough to say whether any earlier storms that hit the USA would be Category 5 by today's standards. (Ref. Jack Williams, USA Today.com)

1939: Lightning hit and killed 837 sheep bedded down for the night on top of Pine Canyon in Northwestern Utah. Both the sheep and the earth were wet from the passing thunderstorm, causing the lightning's electrical discharge to move completely through the herd. The sheepherder was in a tent, was knocked temporary unconscious but escaped death. (Ref. National Weather Service in Utah Lightning Information)

1950: Palm Springs, CA set their all-time September high temperature record with 121°. Other daily record highs included: Yuma, AZ: 123°, Phoenix, AZ: 116°, Las Vegas, NV: 113°, Sacramento, CA: 108°, Tucson, AZ: 107°, Stockton, CA: 105°, Bishop, CA: 104°, Winnemucca, NV: 101°, Winslow, AZ: 99°, Reno, NV: 99°, Elko, NV: 97° and Ely, NV: 93°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1952: A cold front brought damaging winds to Fort Worth, Texas, including the Carswell Air Force Base where thirty-five B-36 planes received damage. The anemometer indicated 90 mph winds before being smashed by debris. 

1953: A heat wave that began in late August continued into early September continued across parts of the Midwest. Platteville, WI & South Bend, IN recorded their hottest September temperatures with 100° and 99° respectively. Fort Wayne, IN & Muskegon, MI tied their all-time September high temperature record with 100° & 95°. Other daily record highs included: Goshen, IN: 101°, Grand Rapids, MI: 97°, Lansing, MI: 96°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1955 - The temperature at Los Angeles, CA, soared to an all-time high of 110 degrees during an eight day string of 100 degree weather. (David Ludlum)

1961: An F4 tornado traveled through parts of Butler and Bremer Counties in Iowa. Unfortunately, there is limited information in the Storm Data entry about this event.  Per Thomas Grazulis in Significant Tornadoes, the tornado began NW of Dumont and ended NE of Horton.  Several farms along the path were "leveled".  It was reported at one farm that fruit jars were "sucked out of the basement" after the house was swept away. There were 7 injuries reported with this event and zero fatalities.

 

1974: Lt. Judy Neuffer became the first female to fly a Hurricane Hunter aircraft through the eye of a hurricane.

1979 - A home in Centerville TN was hit by lightning and totally destroyed. It marked the third time that the house had been hit by lightning since being built in 1970. (The Weather Channel)

1983: Record heat gripped parts of the northern Rockies. Several locations recorded record highs for September including: Miles City, MT: 106°, Billings, MT: 103° and Sheridan, WY: 103°. At Billings, it was the 8th consecutive day with high temperatures above 90°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1985: Erratic Hurricane Elena baffled forecasters and Gulf Coast residents on the Sunday before Labor Day. The Hurricane had threatened the central Gulf Coast on Friday, only to turn east and spend Saturday menacing the Tampa Bay area with high winds, tides and heavy rains. By lunchtime Sunday, Elena was on the move again, but this time back to the west. The storm reached its minimum pressure of 951 millibars or 28.08 inches of mercury while the storm was 75 miles south of Apalachicola, FL. Elena's maximum reported coastal winds were over Dauphin Island, AL, where sustained winds of 105 mph with gusts to 135 mph were reported. Other maximum gusts reported ranged from 120 mph at Gulfport, MS, to 92 mph at Pensacola, FL. Maximum tides of 10 feet above normal were recorded at Apalachicola, FL, with reports of 6 to 8 feet above normal on Dauphin Island, AL. Approximately 1 million people were evacuated from low lying coastal areas during Elena’s approach. This large evacuation contributed to the fact that there were no deaths in the area of landfall. The four deaths which occurred resulted from falling trees and automobile accidents. One resident died of a heart attack. Total damage ranged from $1 to $1.5 billion dollars.(David Ludlum) (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1987 - Cool Canadian air invaded the Midwest. Six cities reported record low temperatures for the date, including Indianapolis IN with a reading of 44 degrees. Hot weather continued in the northwestern U.S. Five cities reported record high temperatures for the date, including Hanover WA, where the mercury soared to 106 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Thunderstorms produced heavy rain in the Upper Mississippi Valley. Ely, MN, was drenched with three inches of rain in two hours, and pelted with one inch hail. The heavy rain flooded streets and basements, and the high water pressure which resulted blew the covers off manholes. (The National Weather Summary)(Storm Data)

1989 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front produced severe weather in Oklahoma during the late afternoon and evening hours. Thunderstorms produced hail two inches in diameter west of Arapahoe, and wind gusts to 70 mph at Luther and south of Harrah. Early morning thunderstorms over Indiana drenched Kokomo with five to eight inches of rain, and spawned a tornado which injured three persons at Bruce Lake. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1999: Erratic Dennis was downgraded to a Tropical Storm as he drifted aimlessly just off Cape Hatteras, NC. Dennis would move southward, then northwestward before making landfall on the 4th with winds of 70 mph. Dennis' heavy rains would set the stage for massive flooding when Hurricane Floyd arrived a few weeks later. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2002: Across southern California, a heat wave sent temperatures soaring to 118° at Dulzura, 113° at Temecula, and 112° at Riverside and Menifee. Temperature gradients were remarkable near the coast. It was 77° at Newport Beach and 107° in Santa Ana, only ten miles difference, 72° in Oceanside Harbor and 87° in Oceanside Airport, only two miles difference, 81° in Sea World to 91° in San Diego - Lindbergh Field, only three miles difference. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2003: By midnight, Indianapolis, IN recorded its wettest day on record with 7.20 inches. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2008: Hurricane Gustav was the second most destructive hurricane of the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season. The storm was the seventh tropical cyclone, third hurricane, and second major hurricane of the season. Gustav caused serious damage and casualties in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, Cuba and the United States. Gustav caused at least $6.6 billion (2008 USD) in damages. Gustav triggered the largest evacuation in United States history up to 2008. Once into the Gulf, Gustav gradually weakened because of increased wind shear and dry air. It weakened to a Category 2 hurricane late on August 31, and remained at that intensity until landfall on the morning of September 1 near Cocodrie, Louisiana. In total, an estimated 153 deaths had been attributed to Gustav in the U.S. and Caribbean.


2017: The temperature at Downtown San Francsico reached 106° setting their all-time record high. The previous record was 103° on June 14th, 2000.

[Stormlover74]

On 8/31/2026 at 8:35 AM, NEG NAO said:

Still the same severe chances - updated a few hours ago

Severe chances dropped for tomorrow 

[Brian5671]

27 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Severe chances dropped for tomorrow 

backdoor front will be S and W of most of the area tomorrow-stable airmass in place

[psv88]

0.96" overnight, more than i expected. 

Heavy showers moving in, just heard a rumble of thunder

[FPizz]

After this early afternoon stuff, more stuff popping later?

[Stormlover74]

19 minutes ago, FPizz said:

After this early afternoon stuff, more stuff popping later?

We'll see

[Cyg]

Hearing quite a bit of rumbling here in the Summit area. Only storm around is way up in N Morris county.

[NJwx85]

Visible satellite shows clearing over the next 1-2 hours which will set the stage for severe later. Strong shear setup could lead to some supercells.

[NorthShoreWx]

1.31" rain here so far.  73.9/73.3, i.e., its really wet

[FPizz]

1 hour ago, Cyg said:

Hearing quite a bit of rumbling here in the Summit area. Only storm around is way up in N Morris county.

I drove home right through that cell.  Super heavy rain, lightning and thunder.  Had to go down to 25mph on 287

[SnowGoose69]

We'll see if anything happens.  I lean towards it being mostly city south now as I think atmosphere may have been too overworked from earlier rain

[gravitylover]

I dunno, it's juicy out there. An hour of sun could be all it needs to pop.

[SnoSki14]

Yeah it's pretty unstable out there. CAPE exceeding 3K too. Lots of sun

[WeatherGeek2025]

question guys... during strong el niños, does nyc get a lot of snow, a lot of mix events or just mostly rain?

[NJwx85]

33 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

We'll see if anything happens.  I lean towards it being mostly city south now as I think atmosphere may have been too overworked from earlier rain

There’s moderate CAPE well into Southern New England now and sun just broke out here in Bergen.

[SACRUS]

87 / 75 sun out we'll see how warm we go 850 MB temps pushing >17c

[Brian5671]

37 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

We'll see if anything happens.  I lean towards it being mostly city south now as I think atmosphere may have been too overworked from earlier rain

Not expecting much here-still mostly cloudy after an inch of rain

[Stormlover74]

No signs of a watch or meso discussion yet 

[IrishRob17]

12 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

No signs of a watch or meso discussion yet 

A meso discussion was issued in the last 15 minutes, watch looks likely by 5pm. I’m hoping it’s south of me.