September 2026

[Stormlover74]

First week looks above average

 

[jm1220]

3 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

First week looks above average

 

GFS setting up quite the contrast to start the month. 90s-100 around DC, 60s in Boston. Ring of Fire storms around the ridge also a possibility, maybe a well timed derecho.

[Stormlover74]

Interesting to be this bullish 4 days out

[Stormlover74]

[qg_omega]

On 8/29/2026 at 11:32 AM, Stormlover74 said:

Interesting to be this bullish 4 days out

Yup wrong

[Stormlover74]

14 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Yup wrong

Why?

[NEG NAO]

15 hours ago, qg_omega said:

Yup wrong

Still the same severe chances - updated a few hours ago

[weathermedic]

Nice write up about the severe weather potential around here from OKX AFD this morning:

The main focus of concern will come this afternoon into early
this evening. A warm front will lift north of the area this
morning, but only for a brief time. Strengthening high pressure
across eastern Canada into New England will send the front back
to the southwest as a backdoor cold front late this afternoon
into this evening. Winds will back around to the east behind it.
While there is some uncertainty as to how much the airmass will
destabilize in the warm sector today, HREF mean SBCAPE values
are still 1000-2000 J/KG across the marginal and slight risk
areas. Greatest instability will be north and west of the NYC
metro. Additionally, there is 40-50kt of deep-layer shear and
decent directional shear 0-3km. SPC has included part of the
area in a low probability for tornadoes (less than 5 percent).
However, mid-level lapse rates are marginal around 6C.

The flood threat remains low with the area under a marginal risk
of excessive rainfall. This is for an isolated flash flood
threat. While the airmass is loaded with moisture, PW values
around 2 inches, there is decent storm motion in the westerly
flow aloft. Training does not seem likely in this event. SPC
HREF probabilities are greater than 50 percent for an 1" in 3
hours, but less than 10 percent for 3" in 3 hours.

Much of the strong to severe convection should drop south and
west of the area around or shortly after 00Z (8 PM).

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
An easterly flow will result in a much more stable airmass
across the area on Wednesday. The frontal boundary is expected
to stay south and west of the region before starting to move
back in Wednesday night into Thursday as a warm front. SPC has
the western half of the area in a marginal risk for severe
weather, mainly due to some uncertainty with how far south and
west the front gets. Right now, expecting mainly scattered
showers for the western half of the forecast area.

Greater coverage of showers and thunderstorms is expected
Wednesday night into Thursday morning with the warm front
lifting across the area. The airmass will then warm up and
destabilize Thursday in the warm sector with another chance of
strong to severe convection with the cold front late Thursday
afternoon/evening. SPC has western portions of the area under a
marginal/slight risk and WPC has the entire area under a marginal
risk of excessive rainfall. Details should fall better into
line in the next 24h.

[weathermedic]

[bluewave]

September getting off to a high dewpoint start.