Septorcher 2026 Discussion - Endless Summer

[vortex95]

14 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

At this point, Stein is giving me a Roman helmet.

 

[vortex95]

14 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s so bad that I was just listening to Guns N’ Roses “You could be mine”, and now I’m putting Stein to it. You could be Stein.

This is more appropriate.  Scott can WOO WOO for a big winter! LOL.

 

[vortex95]

13 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Downpours are cool if they cause flooding. Otherwise it’s boring.

However, as someone running around with a garden hose trying to save their plants, downpours are appreciated. 

Really?  That time it was coming into your basement when you lived in Dorchester, you were not thrilled!

[vortex95]

@CoastalWx had a similar experience and was like this guy  A wicked close strike hit the utility pole just outside when he lived in Dorchester, and he got shocked while he was on his PC (probably browsing AmrWx!).  He was quite in shock and awe (couldn't stop talking about it when it came into work).  And then the utility pole would not stop arcing!

 

[vortex95]

7 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

@weatherwiz

this is for you

https://www.reddit.com/r/tornado/s/AGDgPsOKPQ

 

I will objectively say, the first part is perhaps the best I have ever seen when it comes to an "VOR" approach.  First, how quickly the tor intensified.  Second, inflow "swirlies" well beyond the condensation funnel, and third, the radial inflow sfc jets apparent ("ghost train") apparent that can do wicked damage outside the condensation base.

As @CoastalWx would say, "VIOLENTLY BEAUTIFUL!"
 

[Ginx snewx]

Landphoon

 

[CoastalWx]

4 hours ago, vortex95 said:

I will objectively say, the first part is perhaps the best I have ever seen when it comes to an "VOR" approach.  First, how quickly the tor intensified.  Second, inflow "swirlies" well beyond the condensation funnel, and third, the radial inflow sfc jets apparent ("ghost train") apparent that can do wicked damage outside the condensation base.

As @CoastalWx would say, "VIOLENTLY BEAUTIFUL!"
 

Why can’t we get that?

[CoastalWx]

It’s amazing, everyone getting fun and damaging weather except New England. Another big SVR day from NYC to DE last evening. Unreal.

[Typhoon Tip]

21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s amazing, everyone getting fun and damaging weather except New England. Another big SVR day from NYC to DE last evening. Unreal.

[Typhoon Tip]

The pattern foot with the  -CGT summer synoptic has plagued now for 6 weeks .. and is striking hard locally. It's ultimately causing the deep flow to sag over SE Canada --> confluence, which in turn generates a stalled albeit weak ( but still stronger enough than the sub trop high, S) high pressure in the perfect location to bang us like a upstate NY rape shack. 

It's stealing what remains of our geriatric dying summer with this achronological BD stagnation shit we have going on - wedging in other words. 

It was 88/79 at several sites I observed around the S Great Lakes yesterday afternoon, a latitude that is essentially the same as Worcester Ma.   And as that annotation above demos, this is not autumn - straw man argument - this is a location's bad luck with respect to the how the gears of the hemisphere put us in this resulting cool local anomaly. 

The models are attempting to break this down and introduce some late gasping attempt at heat,

...when the sun is gone ...

...but they've also been doing this beyond D5's for few days now and we keep correcting troughs as digging through eastern ONT/QUE - so long as the latter happens, this will go on to being the earliest end of summer in decades perhaps... a qualification buried by the sensible appeal of still being sort of mild or even warm from time to time since late July.  

[dendrite]

5 hours ago, vortex95 said:

I will objectively say, the first part is perhaps the best I have ever seen when it comes to an "VOR" approach.  First, how quickly the tor intensified.  Second, inflow "swirlies" well beyond the condensation funnel, and third, the radial inflow sfc jets apparent ("ghost train") apparent that can do wicked damage outside the condensation base.

As @CoastalWx would say, "VIOLENTLY BEAUTIFUL!"
 

That inflow really ramped up as it rapidly strengthened. I’m not a tor weenie, but it almost seemed like there was a microscale pressure tendency response to the rapidly lowering pressure…like a QG isallobaric component on a synoptic scale.

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Landphoon

 

PDS flood emergency out there.

2ft+ radar estimates and counting. I’d just like 5% of that please.

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The pattern foot with the  -CGT summer synoptic has plagued now for 6 weeks .. and is striking hard locally. It's ultimately causing the deep flow to sag over SE Canada --> confluence, which in turn generates a stalled albeit weak ( but still stronger enough than the sub trop high, S) high pressure in the perfect location to bang us like a upstate NY rape shack. 

It's stealing what remains of our geriatric dying summer with this achronological BD stagnation shit we have going on - wedging in other words. 

It was 88/79 at several sites I observed around the S Great Lakes yesterday afternoon, a latitude that is essentially the same as Worcester Ma.   And as that annotation above demos, this is not autumn - straw man argument - this is a location's bad luck with respect to the how the gears of the hemisphere put us in this resulting cool local anomaly. 

The models are attempting to break this down and introduce some late gasping attempt at heat,

...when the sun is gone ...

...but they've also been doing this beyond D5's for few days now and we keep correcting troughs as digging through eastern ONT/QUE - so long as the latter happens, this will go on to being the earliest end of summer in decades perhaps... a qualification buried by the sensible appeal of still being sort of mild or even warm from time to time since late July.  

Music to my eyes, ears and weenie.

[dendrite]

8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The pattern foot with the  -CGT summer synoptic has plagued now for 6 weeks .. and is striking hard locally. It's ultimately causing the deep flow to sag over SE Canada --> confluence, which in turn generates a stalled albeit weak ( but still stronger enough than the sub trop high, S) high pressure in the perfect location to bang us like a upstate NY rape shack. 

It's stealing what remains of our geriatric dying summer with this achronological BD stagnation shit we have going on - wedging in other words. 

It was 88/79 at several sites I observed around the S Great Lakes yesterday afternoon, a latitude that is essentially the same as Worcester Ma.   And as that annotation above demos, this is not autumn - straw man argument - this is a location's bad luck with respect to the how the gears of the hemisphere put us in this resulting cool local anomaly. 

The models are attempting to break this down and introduce some late gasping attempt at heat,

...when the sun is gone ...

...but they've also been doing this beyond D5's for few days now and we keep correcting troughs as digging through eastern ONT/QUE - so long as the latter happens, this will go on to being the earliest end of summer in decades perhaps... a qualification buried by the sensible appeal that's still sort of mild or even warmish from time to time.  

You’ve been mentioning the lingering vestiges of the winter/spring pattern for awhile now. It’s been neutering warmth and moisture pushes all year up here. Yeah, there’s climo for that up here in the summer given wavelengths and all of that warmed airmass to our west, but it feels like the “pinch off” has been more anomalous than normal…or at least compared to recent years. We’ve still been AN even with these higher climate norms, but there just seems to be a persistent low grade warmth rather than more changeable fluctuations moving through.

Winter was similar. Steady low/moderate grade cold for days and weeks. Small negative daily anomalies added up to solid monthly ones. But the pattern feels stagnant which probably leads credence to it being “boring.

[Typhoon Tip]

40 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Music to my eyes, ears and weenie.

Ha ...right. 

You know, no one's asking; this is purely personal - I'm so f'n fed up with winter's being some how some way just not nearly as impactful or even interesting to watch unfold ... years stacking on top of years of that shit, too, I've given up on that ever being different.  

For one, CC leans in the background and at some point, we have to admit that winter's as we knew them will be gone forever.  That's just incontrovertible logic - we cannot continue to warm and expect snow.  At some dope slap obvious to objective reality point in future time, the former will stop the latter. 

I sense some of that is claiming winter's real-estate already. Probably why these winter's are becoming increasingly more challenged to finding a foothold over the longer term "quality means".  Which we hide in time locality just because we happen to get two storms that were 20".    20" storms used to be rare; CC -drive H20 vapor density increasing in the ambient makes that more possible.  But this is transient during this part of the CC curve... Those are destined to be rain events in similar atmospheric structures of the future. While in between them, like Brian intimates very correctly, we're floating above climo in the ambience.

This is the insidious nature of CC.  It's not going to "turn off" winters like that.  It's going to erode at the edges and punch more and more holes in previous assumptions of interim storm behaviors here and there. Ultimately ... diminishing returns.   It could happen faster? sure. It could slow down and regress one year or two or even three over a decade, but the destiny ain't changin'

I feel we're already going down that road... and doing so at a bad time of my life. I'm middle aged now, a time when a lot of people quite naturally start losing interest in winter anyway.  I think I have to admit, I'd rather continue with outdoor activities straight through. So, I'm feel both my ability, and will to defend winter, combined to putting my interest in deep trouble.

I realize I may be one in maybe 3 or 4 members in this particular social media that share's in any similar motivation.  I'm not here to diminish winter for anyone else. It's just a take I don't deny.   Folks can still count on me to be objective about individual threats and/or general pattern assessments.

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

You’ve been mentioning the lingering vestiges of the winter/spring pattern for awhile now. It’s been neutering warmth and moisture pushes all year up here. Yeah, there’s climo for that up here in the summer given wavelengths and all of that warmed airmass to our west, but it feels like the “pinch off” has been more anomalous than normal…or at least compared to recent years. We’ve still been AN even with these higher climate norms, but there just seems to be a persistent low grade warmth rather than more changeable fluctuations moving through.

Winter was similar. Steady low/moderate grade cold for days and weeks. Small negative daily anomalies added up to solid monthly ones. But the pattern feels stagnant which probably leads credence to it being “boring.

100%

It's not a matter me agreeing.   The bold, and in fact all this is so.   Whether one agrees or not.