Augdewst 2026: Summer's Last Stand

[weatherwiz]

The wind shear across the MDR is pretty nuts and probably isn't decreasing anytime soon. Would probably need to see some wave survive to around Cuba or Puerto Rico before it even has the chance of becoming organized. 

[ineedsnow]

12z NAM  

[dendrite]

44 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Someone said it was moving south?

This is your bump north

 

[ineedsnow]

@CoastalWx might float into the Atlantic

[ineedsnow]

[dendrite]

12k nam who cares

[Damage In Tolland]

I think there’s some confusion from a few. No one was saying no rain because of wagons south. This has always  looked like scattered showers to the Pike area. But the heavy rains have always been wagons south . Like S coast to NYC south 

[Brian5671]

51 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I think there’s some confusion from a few. No one was saying no rain because of wagons south. This has always  looked like scattered showers to the Pike area. But the heavy rains have always been wagons south . Like S coast to NYC south 

same ol pattern.  Hoping it misses here...we are waterlogged

[Ginx snewx]

Shit weather incoming. Damn it. Hopefully doesn't rain all weekend.

[Chrisrotary12]

15 hours ago, Torch Tiger said:

how many g damn times 

We’re #1. We’re #1. We’re #1!

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Shit weather incoming. Damn it. Hopefully doesn't rain all weekend.

Very tough forecast. Definitely better potential for more in the way of consistent rain eastern CT and points east, particularly on Saturday. Sunday I don't think is a rain all day but there could be some room for some strong storms and downpours in the afternoon if we destabilize enough. Saturday could be like EOR type ordeal and Sunday WOR

[weatherwiz]

Looks like Hawaii dodging a bullet with Two-C

[Brian5671]

16 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Very tough forecast. Definitely better potential for more in the way of consistent rain eastern CT and points east, particularly on Saturday. Sunday I don't think is a rain all day but there could be some room for some strong storms and downpours in the afternoon if we destabilize enough. Saturday could be like EOR type ordeal and Sunday WOR

New GFS keeps most of it south of all of us Saturday

[weatherwiz]

4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

New GFS keeps most of it south of all of us Saturday

These are always tough because it depends on exactly where the front stalls and where the low pressure tracks. 

I've felt the past few days the GFS may be a bit too aggressive with Saturday...at least with northwest extent of the heavier rain. We'll probably see some showers around though given weak lift

[Typhoon Tip]

yeah... no one's been told before that the NAM has a N-W biases beyond 24 hours...   heh

 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

9 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

New GFS keeps most of it south of all of us Saturday

This isn’t going to produce much for anyone. That’s clear 

[Damage In Tolland]

13 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

New GFS keeps most of it south of all of us Saturday

Let’s keep wagons heading south 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Upgraded WPC outlook looking like southern CT will see a good 2-4” soaking tonight. 

[Layman]

3 hours ago, dendrite said:

12k nam who cares

 

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

This isn’t going to produce much for anyone. That’s clear 

Can you meh yourself back into 1”+?

[Cyclone-68]

Once again the same area struck about 100x this summer. It’s getting old 

[kdxken]

16 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Can you meh yourself back into 1”+?

 

[Torch Tiger]

1.5-2.5" next 5.  We'll see

[NoCORH4L]

6 hours ago, Lava Rock said:

so goes the wknd. 

I think you'll have a better chance of staying dry on Saturday than SNE at least

[weatherwiz]

nice looking supercell with a TDS down in Maryland 

[kdxken]

When does this thing abruptly turn south? 

 

[vortex95]

18 hours ago, JACKASS said:

I get the dew and heat trolls, as well as the cold and snowy trolls, as well as the drought vs floods.

But, for the love of what ever you believe in, can we just have a thread on reality??

PLEASE!!

@JACKASS just wants the real deal!  No wishcasting, whining, or waffling! 

[vortex95]

5 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

The wind shear across the MDR is pretty nuts and probably isn't decreasing anytime soon. Would probably need to see some wave survive to around Cuba or Puerto Rico before it even has the chance of becoming organized. 

The "barrier" is in place.
 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, vortex95 said:

The "barrier" is in place.
 

Yup...you're not getting anything going in that. When those two waves the NHC flagged last week crapped the bed that was a tell tale sign of where things stand. Environmental conditions aren't going to be getting any better either. 

Now folks may look at that and say we gotta watch the Gulf and northern Caribbean for home brew, but it should be noted the shear is only weak there because of the large scale ridging. Once that breaks down and we get troughs and fronts digging into the southern states that will change. 

[vortex95]

4 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

@CoastalWx might float into the Atlantic

"sinkers and floaters"