Augdewst 2026: Summer's Last Stand

[vortex95]

7 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

We need this! I'm guessing a small rain wrapped tornado? 

 

https://www.fox61.com/article/news/nation-world/wind-flips-car-over-ohio-freeway/507-bdd319f9-20bb-4f8e-8238-ed65ddee0ba4

Likely a rain-wrapped tor.  If it was a MB that strong to flip cars, the other ones nearby would have at least been pushed sideways.

Nothing I find more frightening in wx is not having good VIS when a tor may be present.  I've been in that situation before in OK (the day of the El Reno monster in May 2013), and it was a harrowing experience to say the least.
 

[vortex95]

4 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This is ugly 

https://x.com/steveoweathaguy/status/2087291143151395060?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

Pffttt!  Lame X post. He does not specify how *strong* El Nino was those years.  That makes a big difference.  And there have been 10 El Nino events since 1994, so where are the other 7 for comparison?

2002-03 was strong El Nino.  How did that winter do? /S  2009-10 was strong El Nino, what happened that winter? /S

We should be looking at very strong El Ninos only.  We've have 4 since the 1950s, 1982-83, 1991-92, 1997-98, 2015-16.  It is a mixed bag, leaning toward below avg snowfall, but there was the Feb 1983 blockbuster and also Jan 2016.  So it does not mean it is a complete loss.

Also, sample size, 4 very strong El Ninos in 70 years does not tell us the full gamut of what can happen, so don't let the @CoastalWxDebbie Downer attitude rule here!   

There are no less than a dozen other global and regional oscillations going on and how they interact w/ El Nino can and does lead to the unexpected.  Case in point, normally in very strong El Nino, Cali is soaked and the Pac NW is dry.  Well, that did not occur in 2015-16, it was the exact opposite!

Also, the wx/atmosphere does not work linearly.  In other words, just b/c this may be the strongest El Nino in modern times, does not mean you simply extrapolate in one direction based off other very strong events, esp. when it comes to regional sensible wx and the specifics.
 

[klw]

10 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This is ugly 

https://x.com/steveoweathaguy/status/2087291143151395060?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

 

[dendrite]

Min 57.4°

Coldest 8/12/2026 of my life.

[CoastalWx]

Thankfully we upper 60s.

[dendrite]

39 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Thankfully we upper 60s.

Gotta love BOS

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Gotta love BOS

We UHI

[Layman]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We UHI

Unreliable Heat Index?

[weatherwiz]

Might be a decent light show tonight SOP 

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, dendrite said:

Gotta love BOS

I'm not so sure that's wrong looking at the overnight ... very light NW drift is ideally moving a high heat content source right at Logan: that being Boston's urban asshole.   This was probably going to be a warm urban/cooler subburb deal overnight.  HFD there being 65...  also ORH AP a 1000 feet above the decoupled slab of false autumn was also 65, somewhat evinces that.  Boston being the biggest urban warm pig on the map with a NW to NNW gentle stenchy city fart all night might just have elevated that site anthropomorphically

Also, interestingly ... the Harbor is torched.  70 F SSTs.   Not sure what this compares to normal but I suspect it is warm?